Last week we focused in on University of Hartford southpaw Sean Newcomb, a surefire top pick if he stays healthy. This week we’re going to take a look at a big right-hander who may not be as highly regarded, but may jump up draft boards with some improvement in 2014.
Michael Cederoth, San Diego State University
Position: RHP
Height: 6’6
Weight: 210
Bats/Throws: Right/Right
When you’re a big right-hander who attends San Diego State and can throw 100 mph, it’s inevitable that you’re going to get compared to former Aztec’s ace Stephen Strasburg. Surely those are lofty expectations to place on a player and Cederoth has a long way to go– but he doesn’t lack for talent. In 2013 he pitched 95.3 innings while sporting a 4.25 ERA (3.13 FIP). He struck out 109 batters (10.29 K/9) while walking 48 (4.53 BB/9). Most draft experts see Cederoth being drafted in the 20-25 range, but could rise with improved command and secondary stuff this season.
Fastball
The fastball is going to be Cederoth’s calling card. Sitting in the upper 90’s and touching triple digits with late movement, it’s easy to make the Strasburg comparisons. However Cederoth doesn’t have the command or polish Strasburg had in his days at SDSU, so unfortunately that’s where the similarities end for now.
Current: 60
Future: 70+
Slider
Michael’s second-best offering is his breaking pitch, a mid-80’s slider with sharp bite. The pitch can flash above-average potential at times but is wildly inconsistent and he hasn’t shown great command of it. He’ll have to work hard on harnessing it if he wants to remain a starter at the next level.
Current: 50
Future: 60
Changeup
At the moment Cederoth’s changeup is more of a show-me pitch– used to catch college hitters trying to start early in an attempt to catch up with his explosive fastball. However much like his slider he has a hard time throwing it for strikes so it isn’t much of a weapon. With a fastball like the one he possesses, developing his changeup to at least a solid-average pitch will really help him keep hitters off balance.
Current: 40
Future: 50
Command/Control
As previously mentioned when breaking down Cederoth’s pitches, control and command are an issue. In college he’s able to get by with his blistering velocity, but at the MLB level that simply won’t be enough. Making the adjustments necessary in order to reign in his pitches is going to determine just what he is at the highest level.
Current: 30
Future: 45
Summary
With his size and velocity it’s hard not to like Cederoth. However, there are certainly a fair amount of concerns. I’ve already touched on his control issues, however I think that’s something that can be improved with work and repetition. While he’s never going to have Strasburg-like command, if he can manage his walk-rate he’ll be just fine. Another concern scouts have is his delivery. In watching some video of Cederoth, and I want to stress that I am in no way a scout, it appears that he doesn’t use his lower half enough. He’s got a high leg kick and a 3/4 delivery, which is fine by me, but coming out of that leg kick he doesn’t appear to stride much. Losing that leg drive will put more stress on the arm. Maybe this is something that coaches can work on with him at the next level, but often tinkering with a pitchers mechanics will only make things worse. Your best bet is to leave him alone and hope he doesn’t break. Sometimes pitchers can overcome flawed mechanics (Chris Sale) and sometimes pitchers with good mechanics (Strasburg, Matt Harvey) get hurt anyway. If he stays healthy you hope for his secondary pitches to develop and you may have yourself a solid 2/3 starter. If the secondary stuff doesn’t come along Cederoth may still be a late-inning reliever or even closer.
Thanks to commenter JDTerrific for the suggestion to profile Cederoth.
On what planet does Strasburg have good mechanics? How do you put his mechanics in the same sentence with harvey?
Prior to Strasburg’s injury many people called his mechanics clean, efficient and effortless. The only problem, or perceived problem with his mechanics was the “inverted W”. There are plenty of people who study pitching mechanics who don’t agree with the idea that the “inverted W” is as dangerous as many were lead to believe.
Keith Law on Strasburg prior to draft:
“His mechanics are clean and repeatable and he shows above-average command of his stuff, which is part of what separates him from past college flamethrowers like Bobby Witt”
Jim Callis:
Baseball America has yet to encounter a scout who was terribly worried about Strasburg’s mechanics. The closest we’ve come is when we talked to one scouting director who said he had some trepidation last summer, but that wouldn’t have prevented him from taking Strasburg first overall in the 2009 draft.
When he saw Strasburg again early this year, those concerns evaporated.
“He’s not picture-perfect clean, but he’s not a max-effort guy either,” the scouting director said. “His arm works really good out front. When I saw him this year, he was a lot tighter and cleaner than he was last summer. I thought, ‘Wow, he’s really cleaned it up.’ If I’m picking 1-1, he’s my guy.”
Another scout was more blunt.
“There’s nothing that looks like a red flag to me,” he said. “That is the newest annoying trend on the Internet to me, with all the mechanics experts. It’s kind of a bizarre phenomenon, really. Of course, he’s a pitcher, so he has a chance of breaking down and then they can say they are right.”
I don’t know why you cherry picked that one statement out the entire post to get worked up over, but clearly there’s going to be differing opinions on every pitchers mechanics. And regardless of mechanics ANY pitcher can get hurt.
Re: “On what planet does Strasburg have good mechanics?”– both of those excerpts were from articles written on Earth.