A Fan Shot by John Sasso

With the 2016 pre-season prospect rankings now complete, I have compiled a consensus of where the prospects rank by major publications. So yes a list of lists, with links included. Some publications were only 10 prospects long, while others went as far as unearthing 80 prospects. To balance things out a bit, I limited my compiling to the top 30 prospects ranked with any additional rankings by the ambitious also included.

Before we get to the actually listing, a nod of credit to all the journalists and scouts; (both professional and amateur) who did the actual work, I only compiled and summarized. The sources for the compilation were from a dozen readily available and  (fairly) widely read and criticized blogs, magazines, and websites. Each unique list is linked below:

MLB.com – thirty deep and widely referenced among fans

Baseball America – The quintessential guide to prospect watchers everywhere, the top 10 available online with the top 30 in the prospect guide

Baseball Prospectus – Written by long time AA podcast host Jeff Paternostro, the BP list went only 10 deep,I utilized his (JP) contribution to AA to add to the tally for prospects ranked 11-25

Fangraphs – One of the more controversial lists that drastically deviated from the consensus among the top 5. A great list for novice prospect viewers as they break down how the tools translate to expectation and scouting score to future production.

Metsminors.Net – An ambitious 80 players ranked and dissected, the prospect partner site to MetsmerizedOnline.com, the contributors to the sites do an outstanding job covering every level of the organization

Keith Law – (paid subscription only) The former Blue Jays scout created a bit of a stir himself, as his list is the only one that did not recognize Matz as the top prospect.

Amazin Avenue – The SB nation blog, represents quality writing with a variety of opinions.

Amazing Avenue fan rankings – Many of us (baseball blog consumers) may have participated in this crowdsourcing exercise organized as fanposts by Ogre39666

John Sickles – Another contribution from SB Nation, this one from the Minor League Ball team, Sickles is one of the longest tenured prospect writers out there with a career spanning 20 years.

MetsProspectHub –  Not well known, but have they been around since 2006

Mets360 – Another Mets blog (plenty of them) that went 50 deep with some variation to the norm

Baseball Essential – An extensive baseball site that covers everything from HS to the majors.

Something will stand out right away from viewing the complete list is a stunning 44 players received some attention. That is with Logan Verrett having a somewhat questionable case, (he was only included on 3 lists) due to rookie eligibility (I think it is service time that has caused the confusion). The lists have varied so much, with some ranking among one list top 30 (Medina and Taylor) that did not rank on another top 80.

There are the cases to be made of the the new IFA shortstops signed in 2015, Gimenez and Guerrero who were consistently among the top 20 until Fangraphs dropped a bomb on Mets prospect watchers. And as much attention as the two kids are garnering, the 2014 IFA period do not get a mention. Kenny Hernandez is the highest mention at 40th on the MMN list.

The lowest ranked player to appear on each list was Jhoan Urena at 16, while, perhaps unsurprisingly, at 11 Robert Gsellman was the highest to not appear on everyone’s list. Also unsurprisingly, it appears that Eudor Garcia was hurt in his rankings with the positive PED test. Sickles who did his rankings of the Mets in November had him at 13, while everyone who published after his suspension has him in the 18 – 23 range.

In putting this together one thing is sure, no prospect ranking nor expert is correct 100% of the time. Each of the writers has their own valuations, some value nearness more so than others, while others will value minor league production. Caveat to that though, I think if polled each would attest that talent trumps all.

It should also be noted that it is very unlikely that the major publications are able to see each prospect in person. Many of the reports will be from sources within the scouting community, and as such some reports will appear regurgitated. If you want detailed coverage on prospects stick to the independent team specific content.

My personal preference is to utilize the reports as a starting point and find the specifics to what to look for. Then go to the games and see for yourself. Showing up at a minor league park 3 hours early is suggested if you want to see batting practice and any other drills.

We can be rest assured that even with the organization having graduated so many major league contributors in recent seasons, there is more on the way.