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Analyzing the Mets Shortstop Depth

By Former Writers

April 19, 2016 2 Comments

jose-reyes

Ever since the Jose Reyes era ended in Queens in 2011, the New York Mets have been searching for a shortstop of his caliber (at least, the caliber of Reyes in 2011). In 2012, Ruben Tejada played 112 games at short, in 2013 Omar Quintanilla played 92, due to a Tejada injury. In 2014, Ruben Tejada played 110 and last year Wilmer Flores was the starter, playing 110 games. There has been some turnover at the position, with Tejada and Quintanilla not on the team anymore, and Flores acting as the new super-utility man off of the bench.

The Mets recently signed 30 year-old Asdrubal Cabrera to a two-year deal to man the position. While he is a good player, and an above average offensive shortstop, he is in no way the long-term answer at the position. So, who is?

The Mets have a bevy of answers to that question, clearly prioritizing the position after seeing what a void Jose Reyes left after his departure.

According to MLB.com, the Mets have eight shortstops in their top 30 prospects, four in the top ten alone, and five in the top eleven. So, let’s analyze them:

Amed Rosario, number 3 prospect: The 20 year-old has a previous reputation as an extremely slick fielder, with an average bat. In Rookie Ball, in 2013, he struggled a little bit at the plate. His final slash line was .241/.279/.358, 3 home runs, 23 RBIs, and an 82 wRC+ in 58 games. He turned it around in 2014 at Low A ball, he had a slash of .289/.337/.380, with 1 home run, 23 RBIs, and a 111 wRC+.

He was moved up to Single-A, where he hit .133 in seven games. Last year, in High-A he had a slash of .257/.307/.335 with 0 home runs, 25 RBIs, and a 97 wRC+ in 103 games. He played two games at Double-A, and went 1-10. This year, he has had a strong start, back down at High-A. Through seven games, with a slash of .313/.313/.469, with 1 home run (a walk-off), two RBI and a 136 wRC+.

He is all over the place offensively. He does not walk much (5.5% walk rate is highest of his career), and strikes out a bit (16.2% K rate is his lowest), but he shows potential with his ability to make contact and hit for a decent average. For reference, if he can hit with around a 97 wRC+ when he does reach the majors, he would be an above average hitter for shortstops; only Brandon Crawford, Xander Bogaerts, Jhonny Peralta, Asdrubal Cabrera, Troy Tulowitzki, and Marcus Semien had higher wRC+’s than Rosario did in High-A last year. The bar for hitting out of the shortstop position is rather low, which helps his major league chances. Couple that with his plus glove, and the fact that he is only 20, and there is a very exciting prospect there.

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Gavin Cecchini, number 4 prospect: Cecchini is a name that is familiar to a lot of Mets fans. He was taken 12th overall by the team in 2012, and has worked his way up the ladder to become a very solid prospect, especially after his 2015 season for the Double-A Binghamton Mets. In 2015, he slashed .317/.377/.442, with 7 home runs, 51 RBIs, and a 139 wRC+ in 109 games. Last season also saw his lowest strikeout rate by 2.9% at 11.3%. He was always considered an average fielder, with a cannon for an arm.

Besides last season with the bat, he was always hovering around average at the plate. In 53 games in Rookie ball in 2012, he went .246/.311/.330, with 1 home run, 22 RBIs, and an 83 wRC+. He was moved up to Low-A ball the following season and improved, hitting .273/.319/.314 with 0 home runs and 14 RBIs, with a 94 wRC+, in 51 games. In 2014 he split time between Single-A and High-A ball, hitting .259/.333/.408, 3 home runs, 25 RBIs and a 106 wRC+ in 57 games. He was moved to High-A ball and hit .236/.325./.352, 5 home runs, 31 RBIs, and a 96 wRC+ in 68 games.

He has been up and down with the bat, until his time in Binghamton, where he had an excellent season. He is in Triple-A Las Vegas now, where he will continue his development. He typically does not walk much (around 8% in full seasons), but he does not strike out much either (around 14% typically). His glove is somewhat of an issue at short, and he may be better off moving to third base, mostly because of his plus arm strength, but if his bat continues to improve and show that 2015 is his true offensive potential, Cecchini can be a really exciting prospect.

Luis Carpio, number 6 prospect: Luis Carpio, who is only 18 years-old, has shown extremely exciting flashes in his two years in the Mets system. After being signed, he went to Rookie ball, he hit .234/.347/.301, 1 home run, 20 RBIs, 98 wRC+ in 60 games. In 2015, over 60 games he improved a lot, hitting .304/.372/.359, 0 home runs, 22 RBis, and a 109 wRC+. He was slated to start this season with the newly formed Low-A Columbia Fireflies, but he will miss the entire season with a torn labrum. It is disappointing, but he should start for Columbia next season. Luckily, he is still extremely young, so this should not hurt his development too badly.

Defensively, he is solid. His time in Rookie ball had him see a lot of time at second base, because of the 11th prospect in the Mets system in Milton Ramos, who is an excellent defensive shortstop. Ramos is no slouch there, and he can play second well too, so he has versatility.

matt reynolds

Matt Reynolds, number 10 prospect: The 25 year-old is by far the closest to the Majors, and he was even on the playoff and World Series rosters after Ruben Tejada broke his leg last year against the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NLDS. The Arkansas Razorbacks product has had an up and down minor league career since his selection in the draft in the second round in 2012. In 2012 and 2013, he struggled at the plate a bit, hitting .259/.335/.367, 3 home runs 13 RBIs and a 98 wRC+ over 42 games in his first professional season in Single-A. In 2013, in High-A, he hit .226/.302/.337, 5 home runs, 49 RBIs and an 83 wRC+ in 117 games.

However, he broke out in 2014 hitting .355/.430/.422 with one home run, 22 RBIs, a 144 wRC+ in 58 games in Double-A. He then hit .333/.385/.479, 5 home runs, 40 RBIs, a 124 wRC+ in 68 games in Triple-A. He had an offensive explosion in 2014, and showed that he can hit with the best of any prospect the Mets have. Unfortunately, he did not repeat that in 2015, hitting .267/.319/.402, 5 home runs, 65 RBIs, a 90 wRC+, in 115 games. That is a significant drop off in wRC+ (34 points), going from 24 points above average, to 10 points below average. To be a below-average hitter in such a hitter’s park in Las Vegas is a little alarming.

He only had one really spectacular season at the plate, and every other season hovered around average, as evidence by the wRC+. He has shown the ability to walk (two double digit walk rate seasons), and he typically strikes out at around a 16% rate, which is above average. He has Major League potential, but it is likely as a utility player. He has played an okay shortstop, a solid second base and has the arm strength for third. He is likely to be the next man up if there are injuries to the infielders and he will be able to contribute as a utility player in the MLB, and fill that hole very effectively.

Milton Ramos, number 11 prospect: Milton Ramos is an excellent defensive player, good enough to force Luis Carpio to move to second base. He also showed dramatic improvement in his offensive game since he was drafted in 2014. In his first professional season, he hit .241/.299/.355 0 home runs, 29 RBIs, an 87 wRC+ in 51 games. The next season he markedly improved, hitting .317/.341/.415, 1 home run, 24 RBIs, 108 wRC+ in 43 games. He advanced at a rapid pace, totally outpacing his 2014 performance.

The 20 year-old is in Single-A to start the season, so it will be interesting to see how he responds at the dish. He still has plenty of time to develop himself more. For what it’s worth, he is the shortstop I am keeping my eye on the most because his improvement in Rookie ball was extremely impressive.

Luis - Guillorme

Luis Guillorme, number 15 prospect: Guillorme is a name that has surprised some people. He was a 10th round pick in 2013, but he has become one of the most well-known names after his 2015 season. In 2013, his first professional year, he played 41 games in Rookie ball, hitting .258/.337/.283 with 11 RBIs, 22 runs scored and a 93 wRC+. He stayed in Rookie ball in 2014, playing 57 games, hitting .282/.337/.324, with 17 RBIs, 38 runs scored, and a 96 wRC+. In 2015 he had a phenomenal season at the plate, winning the South Atlantic League MVP award for the Single-A Savannah Sand Gnats (now the Columbia Fireflies), slashing .318/.391/.354, with 55 RBIs, 67 runs scored and a 120 wRC+ in 122 games.

His bat is not perfect, however. He has yet to hit a home run and in 262 career hits, he only has 31 extra base hits; he hits a lot of singles, and that can hamper his ability to hit at higher levels especially in the Major Leagues. He does make high levels of contact, which is a positive. He has good speed (18 steals last year), and he walks at an above-average rate (between 9 and 10%, typically), and does not strike out much (between 10 and 14%, typically). He has the potential to be a quality contact hitter with speed, but developing extra-base hit power will really help prove that he can hit at higher levels.

He is a phenomenal defensive shortstop. He does it all at the position, and his defense is his, as he put it, “forte”, and it is true. He is extremely smooth at shortstop. The thing that is really holding him back is if he could hit for more extra base hits.

Andres Gimenez (number 20 prospect) and Gregory Guerrero (number 21 prospect): These two players are put together because they are recent international signings by the Mets, and they do not have statistics to analyze. However, there are scouting reports, and their immediate entry into the Mets top 30 prospects is a very good sign. Gimenez is projected to be a solid hitter, not by the way of power, but as a line-drive hitter. MLB.com said his defensive potential is “a touch better than Carpio”, which is always a plus; defense will get you chances to prove yourself. Gregory Guerrero, nephew of Vladimir Guerrero, is projected to be a strong hitter that has some power. He probably will not stay at shortstop, but his strong arm can open up a move to third base (with David Wright’s health as a permanent issue, stockpiling third basemen might be prudent).

The Mets do not need every one of these shortstops to make it. The depth at this position is truly phenomenal, and this opens the Mets up to trading one or two for a Major League bat, and it allows the Mets to move these prospects along slowly. The beautiful thing about having so much depth at one position, is each player can really maximize their time at each place, learn different things and it gives the Mets a much higher chance at finding a star shortstop.

These eight players are names you should look out for as the season continues.

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