In any draft, the board can shift greatly. The guy you see at 5th may drop to 17th, the guy at 85 can hop to #30, and the guy at #1 can drop to #11. It’s almost guaranteed every year, that where you see the board on January 1st will be very different than the board on July, and Baseball America provided some insight today with an updated board on March 2nd, with now the top 300 prospects in the 2018 MLB Draft. It’s a paid article, so I’m going to give you some insight on the risers and fallers so far for the updated board:
Risers
OF Trevor Larnach has jumped from #92 on BA’s 200 on January 12th to #52 and may keep rising. The Oregon State outfielder has put on a nice display, outhitting teammate and potential top pick Nick Madrigal (will get to him later), with a lot of power and a middle of the order bat as a strict left fielder.
HS LHP Matthew Liberatore is looking excellent, with a new fastball that was sitting around 92 before, and reached 97 in his most recent start with a plus curve, he’s looking like the top high school arm in the country.
OF Travis Swaggerty from University of South Alabama is hitting with crazy types of authority thus far after an excellent Cape last summer and is probably the most intriguing variable in the draft. He’s hit for more power this year so far, and has more walks than games as well.
Fallers
HS SS Nander de Sedas is the top guy on my board with a sweet swing from the right side and some nice work on his left side too. With high upside, he is very intriguing, but hasn’t hit pitchers that he should be dominating early in spring, so people are getting wary of his bat. In addition, his defensive play that warranted his billing at short has slipped, even though many had him as a 3rd baseman as a pro anyway.
SS Jeremy Eierman was a top guy, put into the top-20 with the ability to stick at short, and plus raw power. He had a rough go in the wood bat Cape League and his swing and miss issues have continued. He’s fallen to #27, and may fall further if he can’t get going and cut his strikeouts.
OF Griffin Conine, who I covered in my last draft article hasn’t done anything to warrant any notion of falling, but has been passed by players who are starting to emerge. He’s still a very interesting and advanced college bat with plus raw power and the ability to stick in right field. In BA’s top 200, he was at #16, but now is at #24.
Holding
2B/SS Nick Madrigal out of Oregon State is also a top guy on my board like de Sedas and Swaggerty, and was doing very well, including showing power. Unfortunately, he broke his wrist sliding into home and will be out for a month. Most people don’t doubt Madrigal’s talent and ability to hit, so they don’t think his draft status will change from the upper tier of the draft.
HS RHP Ethan Hankins was the top high school pitching prospect in the nation, but Liberatore has surpassed him for now, and he had a shoulder issue that had no structural damage. Neither factors are going to keep him from the top 10 in the draft, due to his incredible talent.
Kentucky OF Tristan Pompey has some good talent, with possible 5-tool potential, but holds in the 20-21 spot for BA’s rankings. He is the younger brother of Dalton Pompey, and projects to stick in Center, and hit for more power than his older brother. He also has been dealing with a bad ankle sprain.
Draft Notes:
- USF Lefthander Shane McClanahan continues to dominate, with 32 strikeouts in 18 innings, and dominating lineup after lineup.
- NC State Left Fielder Brett Kinneman has 7 homers already in this very short college season and could find his way up draft boards early.
- The placements for #6 & #46 for the top 300 are HS 3B Nolan Gorman and HS OF Mike Siani
Are there any FAU (Florida Atlantic Univ) baseball players on the list?
I’m still hoping to catch a game or two and could look out and keep track of those guys.
My current top 5:
1) Madrigal
2) de Sedas
3) Swaggerty
4) Kelenic
5) Gorman
Teddy, question, with the Mets at 6 if all players are even at that point do you see them narrowing the field to 3 or 4 and see who they can sign for a lower amount and save money for overslot later on or do you narrow in on the player you like the most and just pick him.
SS/2B Tyler Frank
I think they may go for the guy with the best pre-draft deal, so they can do more later.
Great article, Teddy. I’m holding with Madrigal, De Sedas, and McClanahan at the top 3. Swaggerty is very intriguing, and fits a position of need potentially. Some fine talent in this year’s draft.
Would love an outfield of CONFORTO, SWAGGERTY AND NIMMO IN a few years.
Mine is now Madrigal, Swaggerty, de Sedas, Gorman, Gilbert
As it expands to 500 we may see more
McClanahan or Gorman, please
Tyler Frank just hit his first homer of the season;)
Thanks Teddy. Forgot to add, great article. Mets need to hit on this draft. At number six they need a guy who is a sure thing. I also think Nick Madrigal is the guy if he is there. You know he can hit and he can move quickly through the minors
It’s because you were paying attention Ernest
he’s now my top guy.
Sure things are hard to come by. It would be great to get a player that makes that quick move and is super talented. but just look at the nine teams that passed on Conforto in 2014. And the scouting on him, particularly his defense. So much is so hard to peg.
Great job Ted, and thanks for keeping us updated.
As I read a small scouting report this morning saying Madrigal’s defense may be suspect, as his arm is too erratic for SS so he needs to stay at 2B and that he’s a “nice” hitter but not exceptional and without much power (but does have great speed)”, since I fell in love with him from last year, what can you tell me to stay focused on him, especially in a system that has sooooo many middle infielders and lacks outfielders? Is he really “difference making talent”, because if he isn’t I would move on.
Most people are projecting him as a plus hitter (60-65), and we haven’t seen enough of his power yet, since projections most likely have to do more with his height rather than ability to actually consistently barrel the ball.
Still most reports safely put him as a safe .280+ hitter with 12-15 homers and a very high floor and Conforto-like ascent.
The best outfielder currently is Travis Swaggerty, and his Plate Discipline and athleticism are premium.
Ok, I see. As we have spoken in the past about how power is the last tool to master, I need to be true to that and say ok. So, I will keep Madrigal as my #1 as the better hitter and expect him to be there at 6, especially with his injury. Fingers crossed.
It would be really cool to nab a potential stud outfielder at 46 due to injury fallings, but would Alderson take a player that isn’t pristine?
Madrigal news from Fangraphs:
https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/could-a-5-foot-8-second-baseman-be-drafted-first-overall/