Adam Rubin shared Wednesday on ESPN, the computer-generated projections released by Baseball Prospectus’ for the 2014 Mets. Here’s a look at PECOTA projections for players that should be on the 2014 roster:
Key Position Players
Travis d’Arnaud .250, 16 HR, 58 RBIs, 489 PA
Ike Davis .236, 19 HR, 64 RBIs, 472 PA
Lucas Duda .239, 12 HR, 42 RBIs, 331 PA
Daniel Murphy .274, 11 HR, 56 RBIs, 611 PA
Wilmer Flores .244, 6 HR, 27 RBIs, 249 PA
David Wright .272, 19 HR, 75 RBIs, 606 PA
Ruben Tejada .247, 3 HR, 41 RBIs, 525 PA
Curtis Granderson .229, 26 HR, 82 RBIs, 610 PA
Eric Young Jr. .234, 3 HR, 24 RBIs, 378 PA
Juan Lagares .249, 5 HR, 35 RBIs, 440 PA
Chris Young .219, 15 HR, 55 RBIs, 473 PA
Pitchers
Jonathon Niese 9-15, 3.94 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 165 IP
Bartolo Colon 10-14, 3.67 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 174 IP
Zack Wheeler 8-12, 3.77 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 138 IP
Dillon Gee 9-16, 3.92 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 189 IP
Jenrry Mejia 6-11, 4.45 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 122 IP
John Lannan 1-2, 4.46 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 16 IP
Noah Syndergaard 2-3, 3.74 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 34 IP
Rafael Montero 3-3, 3.25 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 56 IP
What stands out to me, even though these are computer generated projections, is that all of the Mets pitchers will have a below .500 record and above 3.25 ERA’s. The part of that which makes sense is because Matt Harvey won’t be in the rotation to mow down the hitters, but Colon’s ERA has dropped the last four seasons and was an amazing 2.65 with Oakland in 2013. Also, with the key position players, d’Arnaud looks to have an average first full season, Davis will have a somewhat bounce back year by generating 19 HR’s, but his batting average will linger around the Mendoza Line for a third straight year, and no one will hit over .300, even though Wright has done it seven of the ten years he has been in the league.
Based on these projections, the Mets look to be a below .500 team again, with the key pitchers going 48-76, which means another year of mediocre baseball. I guess if the fans are hoping for an 80 win season, based on these numbers the Mets would need the rest of their pitching staff to go 32-6, which is highly unlikely to happen.
This season may indeed be growing pains for the Mets, but I do feel the Mets will have a breakout season, and it may not mean a playoff run, but it could mean back to playing .500 and above baseball. Only time will tell if these projections live up to the real thing, but as Mets fans look at the numbers, the hope is that the projections are just that, a computer generated prediction of what could happen, but most likely won’t. The 2014 season will be a year to build on to finally bring a championship back to Queens. Let’s Go Mets!
(Photo Credit: Anthony Gruppuso-USA TODAY Sports)
These projections are offensive. They are basically calling the Mets worse than last year. Only 75 RBI from Wright? Even if these are computer generated, someone had to put in the parameters.
Those projections are predicting pretty much every single player on the Mets except for Travis d’Arnaud, Syndergaard, and Montero to regress. If David Wright stays healthy, he’s not going to hit .272. And there’s no way Mejía pitches 120 innings of 4.5 ERA. In fact, I’d take the under on all of the pitchers’ predictions except Lannan and Montero.
Has anyone done a comparison of last year´s Pecota projections vs what the players actually did? It´d be interesting. Personally, I don´t believe in these projections systems.