Boom or Bust: Allan Dykstra

By Former Writers

September 1, 2013 8 Comments

allan dykstra by gd

Welcome to today’s edition of Boom or Bust! Today, our writers talk about whether B-Mets first baseman Allan Dykstra will end up being a success in the major leagues or not. His career season just netted him a year-end EAS All-Star nod with teammate Jeff Walters. However, he’ll be a minor league free agent this season, and the Mets need to make a decision to bring him back or not.

Christina Montana:

I want him to be a boom, sincerely I do. First off, however, Dykstra is a left-handed, power-hitting first baseman/DH. He’s a hitter, probably not as good defensively as Ike on the corner, but serviceable based on his stats. Dykstra and Davis are both 26–but while Davis has been in the majors for 3 years, Dykstra has been in AA. Albeit, Dykstra has been putting up more consistent power numbers in those years than Davis did when he was in the minors. He wont be ready, at least, till halfway into next season. He hasn’t tasted AAA yet, but then again, Davis only had 10 games in AAA before he was promoted to the big leagues. Maybe his “minor league seasoning” will provide a better career than it has for Davis–but… having hit for a lower average than Davis throughout his minor league career in exchange for homers. Also, Allan’s striking out a ton in AA. That should increase by the time he hits Vegas, and could get worse when he makes the jump to the majors (a la Kirk). Based on those comparisons, I wouldn’t be too shocked if Allan Dysktra is a bust. At 26, he needs to show that he isn’t just having a “good year” in order to convince me he wont be an Ike Davis-like bust. Verdict: Bust.

John Bernhardt:

Allan Dykstra has been a critical part of Binghamton’s franchise best season.  The slugging first baseman leads the B-Mets in power production with a team best 20 home runs and 80 RBIs. Even more telling is Dykstra’s plate discipline. His 101 base-on-balls (best in the Eastern League) give Dykstra a .436 on-base-percentage, by far the best on the team.  His .497 slugging percentage is second best in the Eastern League.  Earlier, I did submit a post that measured minor league Double-A hitters power numbers merged with OBP.  Dykstra had the best score of any hitter in any Double-A league in the country.  Some will caution that at age 26, Dykstra is old for Double-A thus somehow minimizing his achievements.  In my opinion, Allan Dykstra can only do as well as he can do at whatever level he is placed, and he has excelled this summer in Binghamton. I only hope his impressive offensive numbers earn him a promotion and a CHANCE at a higher level next year.  Verdict: Boom.

David Conde:

When I look at his profile alone, what stands out to me is that first of all he plays first base and is 6’5″ and 215 lbs. That right there tells me that a big body and good swing will bring great results at a position in question for the Mets. As I look at what he has done in his time in the minors, there isn’t anything not to like, especially that his home run totals have continued rise each year he has moved along in the minors. The one off year in 2012 where he only totaled 7 home runs was mostly in part to having fractured his wrist. But even after that he has come back strong and posted so far this year with 20 home runs and 80 RBIs in Double-A which are also his career highs. He does strike out a lot, but I like what I see and if he continues to develop and produce especially when he moves up to Las Vegas, the Mets will have to decide if Allan can be their First Baseman of the Future. Verdict: Boom.

Matt Musico:

I see the pros and cons when it comes to Dykstra’s game. He does strike out a lot and his average isn’t as high as people would like it to be, but his patience and power at the plate have been among the best in the league. I’m going to side with John’s opinion on him, and I hope he gets a chance to show what he’s capable of. So what he’s “a little old” for Double-A…what is he supposed to do? Not hit just because he’s too old? His average has dropped to .273 on the season, but he had a tough month of August; before then, he was among the league leaders in batting average, too. With the uncertainty that lies in the big leagues at the first base position (and Ike Davis now out for the year), there is no choice but to hold onto this guy. Re-sign him, send him to Triple-A next year, and see how he does. If whatever they decide to do with first base doesn’t work out, he provides a little depth in the upper minors. I think he deserves a chance to show what he’s capable of, and I think he’ll do a great job. Verdict: Boom.

(photo credit: Gordon Donovan)

  • chago

    Sorry guys not a believer in “The Son”.

    Bust

  • Dave in Spain

    A Question: How many of you have seen Dykstra live, and how often? Are these analyses/opinions based just on numbers, or on scouting too? I ask because I´m genuinely curious. I´ve also heard from some people that Dykstra is slow, can hit a mistake a mile but is often K´d by good offspeed stuff, and has a lot of moving parts in his swing. True? I don´t know, but I´m a proponent of evaluation by numbers and by eyes-on scouting, and I´m curious how you´re making your judgements. Thanks.

  • @Dave in Spain — I’ve seen Dykstra three times this year and I’d tend to agree with what you’ve heard. Love his on-base skills and he’s got some pop, but that’s about it. Can’t hit good pitching/velo. Mistake hitter. Always old for his league. DH profile defensively.

    Overall I’d like to see him get a shot with the big club, but I’m not overly optimistic.

  • Matt Musico

    It’s a mixture of both; a lot of us have been able to see players like him live, but others haven’t been able to and jut base it on the numbers. On the few off chances there were, I was able to see him on MiLB.tv, but I’d prefer to see him live. It looks like his swing does have a lot of moving parts, which could be a reason why he’s been slumping of late and could be prone to long slumps (a la Ike).

    Thankfully though, a lot of us live in place nearby minor league parks where Mets affiliates play an are able to see them live, when the schedule allows.

  • Matt Musico

    Plus, I tend to be an overly optimistic person, so these things are tough for me lol.

  • Dave in Spain

    Matt, thanks for the clarification! And hang in there with the optimism– it´s much better than the alternative. 😉

  • Sach

    I don’t think Dykstra is a Rule 55 minor league league free agent this offseason. Juan Centeno is such. My verdict on this guy- bust- just a 4A meathead type that most likely is not going to be able to hit major league quality pitching.

  • Matt Musico

    No problem! And I’ll keep trying, haha. I agree with you!