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Breaking Down MLB Pipeline’s Top 30 Mets Prospects

By Doug M

March 22, 2021 No comments

Photo by Ed Delany. MMN

With major league spring training in full throes, there’s been plenty of focus on top prospects all around the game. In fact, a few of the Mets top prospects showed quite well down in Port St. Lucie in the early weeks of March.

It came as surprise to nobody to see the names Matt Allan, Francisco Alvarez, Brett Baty and the likes populating the top tier of MLB Pipeline’s newly released Top 30 Mets Prospects. While after the top 8 names, the system has been thinned out due to trades, there is still plenty of excitement on the horizon, as well as some interesting trends to take notice of.

While teenage phenom catcher Francisco Alvarez, boasting the best hit tool in the system and a plus arm behind the dish, wrestled the top spot on Pipeline’s list this year away from fellow teenager Ronny Mauricio (ranked No. 2), it’s teenage right-handed pitcher Matt Allan who has generated the most buzz in camp, coming in at No. 3. Allan’s 65 grade fastball, according to Pipeline, is the best in the system, as is his 60 grade hammer curveball, and 55 grade control.

Almost all of the best tools in the system, according to Pipeline, belong to the top 8 prospects, with Baty (No. 4 ranking), Mauricio and Mark Vientos (No. 8 ranking) all possessing 60 grade raw power and a potential defensive fit at the hot corner long-term.

Pete Crow-Armstrong/Photo by Perfect Game

The Mets 2020 1st round pick, Pete Crow-Armstrong (No. 5 ranking) was given the best run tool in the system, possessing 60 grade speed and the defensive chops to play an easily plus center field. Long gone are the Juan Lagares gold glove heydays, and Crow-Armstrong’s profile is one of the more sorely needed in the organization.

Not that that means he’s the only Mets prospect that can open some eyes in center field. Thanks to some wheeling and dealing this winter by new Mets acting general manager Zack Scott, the Mets new No. 7 prospect is Khalil Lee, coming over from a strong alternate site performance for the Kansas City Royals last summer.

The 22-year-old Lee has the arm and wheels to be a plus center fielder, and started to rework his swing in a way that has scouts optimistic he can cut down on his swing and miss, and get to his plus raw power. While he has yet to put these tools together in a way that can be seen on on the stat pages (other than his gaudy stolen base totals and impressive ability to draw walks), his brimming upside serves as the clear demarcation in the Mets system. After him, things begin to get more murky.

But that’s what happens when the organization trades away top prospect after top prospect for the last few seasons. While things are entirely different under new ownership and front office leadership, Scott and team president Sandy Alderson did include former high draft picks, Josh Wolf (the Mets 2019 2nd round pick) and Isaiah Greene (the Mets 2020 3rd round pick) in the package that landed Francisco Lindor and Carlos Carrasco. Both prospects would have easily ranked in their current top 10.

Instead, the actual top 10 for Pipeline has room for 2020 2nd round pick, J.T. Ginn, recent high-profile international signee Alexander Ramirez, and long-time prospect list resident, Thomas Szapucki. While Ginn seemingly belongs, based both on his prospect pedigree as a premium college arm at Mississippi St. before his elbow required reconstructive surgery last March and on the rave reviews his fastball/slider combo garners from top team officials, Ramirez and Szapucki being placed this high is certainly a reminder of the lack of high-end, upper level depth the Mets system is suffering from.

Not that the 18-year-old toolbox that is Alexander Ramirez, isn’t exciting. His raw speed/power tools and ideal frame, which enticed the Mets to give him a $2.1 million signing bonus two summers ago at only 16 years old, are something to absolutely dream on. But how he adjusts to professional pitching for the first time is a complete unknown.

Photo by Ed Delany, MMN

While Ramirez is a ball of exciting clay at this stage, 24-year-old left-hander Thomas Szapucki may finally be ready to prove that he is ready to taste the big leagues. Armed with a promising high-spin curveball and a fastball whose velocity can creep into the mid 90’s again, Szapucki is an important depth arm for the Mets but perhaps lacking the upside he once had when he was touching the upper 90’s on the radar gun pre-Tommy John surgery.

The rest of the Pipeline list is full of informative trends.

Of the top 30 prospects, 17 are right-handed pitchers. 14 of the 30 prospects are former international free agents. The overlap of these two demographics leaves you with a Venn diagram that has some of the more interesting young names in the system.

You can just tick off the names in succession: Junior Santos, Robert Dominguez, Jose Butto, Joshua Cornielly, Jordany Ventura, Michel Otanez, Joander Suarez and Daison Acosta.

Mostly five figure international signees in recent years out of Latin America, the Mets international scouting team has uncovered some interesting gems.

Butto impressed at instructs with a 93 mph fastball that gets good separation from what is seen as the best changeup in the system, which he sells well and features plenty of drop. Dominguez was a late pop-up arm in his signing period, and can live in the mid to upper 90’s with promising nascient feel for a slider.

Joshua Cornielly, 20, has opened eyes with his plus control (55 grade), but also boasts a frame that portends future velocity gains.

Ventura, Otanez, Suarez and Acosta are all arms that have been into the mid 90’s and have flashed a feel to create spin on a breaking pitch. All will have to hone their command of their repertoire in order to further realize their significant ceilings.

Another demographic that notably populates the middle and back-end of Pipeline’s list are bullpen arms that can be ready to help the big league club in the near future. Hard throwers Yennsy Diaz and Oscar de la Cruz, brought in this winter via trade and minor league free agency respectively, have the raw stuff to get big league hitters out. Ryley Gilliam, Franklyn Kilome and Sam McWilliams have had mixed success to date in the upper minor leagues, but all three boast mid or upper 90’s gas and big league breaking pitches. Command is the big question mark for all three.

Finally, two day 2 draftees from recent Amateur Drafts have really turned some heads and made Pipeline’s Mets list. Marcel Renteria, drafted by the Mets in the 6th round of the 2017 draft, was touching 99 mph and featuring a plus slider at instructs. He and Tylor Megill can both possibly help the big league bullpen sooner than we think. Megill, the Mets 2018 8th round pick, gets tremendous downhill plane, enabled by his 6’7″ frame, on his suddenly upper 90’s four seamer. Not bad for an 8th round pick, eh?

So, while MLB Pipeline slots the Mets system in at 19th on their 2021 rankings, I am seeing the glass half-full. Armed with a new front office that is committed to stemming the bleeding of talent from the farm system, and retaining all of their picks in the upcoming July Amateur Draft, I am anticipating a Mets system that will only become more flush with exciting talent over the next calendar year. But really, there’s still plenty to dream on already, if you’re willing to take a good look.