Luis Carpio/Photo by Ed Delany, MMN

Luis Carpio was once one of the better rated prospects in the Mets farm system, but that was until he suffered shoulder injuries. Despite a very good July, Carpio had a disappointing season hitting .219/.289/.365 in 112 games for St. Lucie. However, despite the should injuries and the down season there is still reason to believe Carpio is going to break out next year.

Using their prospect stats tool, MLB Pipeline believes Carpio is one of a 10 prospects who will have a breakout season. Specifically, MLB Pipeline analyzed line drive and fall ball rates, and examining that data they saw the foundation for Carpio to have an improved 2019 season:

Carpio’s .219 average was the fifth worst among qualified hitters in the Class A Advanced Florida State League last season. He did, however, hit a career-high 12 homers and 21 doubles in the pitcher-friendly league, and there are quite a few signs that the 21-year-old is in store for more success moving forward. Specifically, Carpio had a surprisingly low .242 batting average on balls in play last season even though 52.2 percent of his contact was either a fly ball or line drive. He also struck out a reasonable 18.4 percent clip, had an equally reasonable 9.4 percent swinging-strike rate and walked 9.3 percent of the time.

While not mentioned in this piece another factor is Carpio’s expected promotion to Binghamton to start the 2019 season. Historically, the Eastern League has been friendly to hitters than the Florida State League. Accordingly, in addition to Carpio’s BABIP stabilizing, you may also see him hitting better in a better hitting environment.

If that happens, who knows where he goes from there. After all, it is easy to forget for the amount of time Carpio has been in the Mets system, he is still just 21 years old, and he was 2.4 years younger than the average competition last year. Overall, his shoulder is looking much better, and he has the peripheral stats to indicate he could soon find himself on a track towards his making the Major Leagues.