As the calendar approaches May, MMN will begin to shift some of their focus to the upcoming draft. With the Mets holding the 10th overall pick, and experts calling this years class both deep and intriguing, it should be an interesting and exciting time for Mets fans. In the upcoming weeks and months we’ll be rolling out Draft Profiles as well as covering any interesting draft related news we come across.
Rodon’s stock slipping?
According to ESPN.com’s draft pundit Keith Law, North Carolina State southpaw Carlos Rodon is no longer the number one player on the board. Rodon, who last season was almost universally considered the top draft prospect in the country, has struggled with fastball velocity and overall command of his pitches this season. Law seems to think these issues could be mechanical/physical:
Rodon’s delivery has less power to it than last summer and is generally less clean, just in subtle ways. He’s a little stiffer at release, more upright, and he’s got some more head violence than he had previously.
So all is not lost for the Wolfpack ace, who still possesses that wicked slider and may be a few adjustments away from regaining his 2013 form.
That is, if Carlos’ arm doesn’t fall off first. Law also called into question NC State’s decision to allow Rodon to throw 134 pitches in his most recent outing– an outing that was already coming on short rest. Taking aim at both the coaches and NCAA, Law wrote:
I hope there are no ill effects from this kind of outing, but it is inevitable that we will eventually see a pitcher used too heavily in his draft year and then blow out shortly thereafter, costing him a large payday. Causality is irrelevant at that point; the mere perception of misuse will lead to serious consequences — from recruiting to a potential lawsuit — for the coaching staff in question. That may be what it takes to get the NCAA involved to put a stop to this kind of nonsense.
Aiken on the rise
So if Rodon is no longer the number one draft prospect, who is? According to Law, it’s prep lefty Brady Aiken.
Aiken was seen as a mid-round pick entering this season, but has seen his draft stock skyrocket with a stellar beginning to his senior season. Law saw Aiken pitch in person in late-March and came away impressed enough to rank him number one in his Top 50. The 6’4 southpaw struck out 12 batters in 4.2 hitless innings that day in front of plenty of other scouts. For those of us not lucky enough to be there, Law painted a tantalizing picture:
You could argue that Aiken showed three grade-60 pitches in the fastball, curve and changeup, maybe a little less than that on the change but a little more on the curveball; no matter what, however, he projects to have three plus pitches and it’s reasonable, based on his build and delivery, to project him to end up with a fastball that’s closer to a 70, averaging 93-94 and touching 97 as a starter.
Between this spring and last summer, I’ve seen all of the top prospects for this year’s draft, including Carlos Rodon, Tyler Beede, Jeff Hoffman, Alex Jackson, Tyler Kolek and Jacob Gatewood, and I’d take Aiken over all of them.
Law’s colleague Chris Crawford, who teams with Keith to cover the draft for ESPN, also came away impressed when he saw a more recent outing by Aiken. Crawford also spoke to a couple scouts, who had this to say of Aiken:
“If [Aiken] isn’t the best high-school pitcher in the class, I don’t know who is,” an AL crosschecker said. “The fastball wasn’t at its best on Wednesday — I think he only touched 94 a couple of times, but he showed a plus breaking ball and he commanded everything pretty well, too. I really think he’s got a chance to be a special arm.”
“At some point you run out of superlatives [about Aiken],” an NL crosschecker said. “The kid just knows how to pitch, and I love the delivery. It’s been a long time since we’ve seen a prep pitcher go first overall, but I really think this could be the year.”
Jackson backs up hype
Crawford also got a chance to see prep catcher Alex Jackson, who has been near the top of draft boards since 2013. The 6’2, 215-pound slugger didn’t disappoint, as Crawford gushed over the backstop:
Jackson was particularly impressive on Thursday, hitting two homers against Torrey Pines High School, giving the right-handed hitting catcher seven on the season and 43 over his three years at Rancho Bernardo. The Oregon commit has impressed scouts with his ability to hit the ball hard to all parts of the field, and he’s one of the few hitters in this year’s class to get plus grades with both the hit and power tool.
Scouts in attendance that day came away equally impressed.
“I think Jackson is the best hitter in the class,” an NL scout said. “He had some timing issues early in the year, but he’s impressed me with the way he’s made adjustments. I think you’re looking at a guy who can hit .300 and give you 25-30 homers during his best seasons, and I don’t see any other hitter with that kind of potential this season at either the college or high school level. I think he’s going to end up in right field, and he should be an All-Star there.”
For more insight on the 2014 Draft, check out ESPN’s MLB Draft Blog (Insider only), which is written by both Law and Crawford. You can also follow them on twitter @keithlaw and @CrawfordChrisV.
(Photo credit: AP Photo/Four Seam Images/Mike Janes)
