Fangraphs Top 20 Mets Prospects

By Mets Daddy

February 28, 2017 2 Comments

tomas nido

Using the KATOH Projection System in conjunction with other forecasting systems, Fangraphs has released their list of the Top 20 prospects in the Mets farm system. Fangraphs analysis of the Mets farm system was:

This crop of talent is about average in terms of depth compared to the orgs we’ve reviewed so far, but quite sneakily has five top-100 candidates up top, including one of the best prospects in baseball. It’s an underrated lot, overshadowed within the city and division by superior systems. The lifeblood of the Mets farm is their Latin American program, which has yielded not only one of the most exciting prospects in baseball but a steady stream of talent throughout the entirety of the system.

Below is the Top 20 prospects in the Mets farm system as judged by Fangraphs with their accompanying grade on the 20-80 scouting scale and Mahalanobis Comps where applicable:

#1 SS Amed Rosario

2016 Level: St. Lucie & Binghamton

2016 Statistics: 120 G, 479 AB, 65 R, 155 H, 24 2B, 13 3B, 5 HR, 71 RBI, 19 SB, .324/.374/.459

MMN Rank: #1

Fangraphs Grade: 65

Mahalanobis Comp: Hanley Ramirez

#2 RHP Robert Gsellman

2016 team:  Binghamton, Las Vegas, MLB

2016 MILB Stats:  20 G, 4-9 W/L, 3.99 ERA, 20 GS, 115 IP, 113 H, 58 R, 51 ER, 31 BB, 88 K, 1.25 WHIP

2016 MLB Stats:  8 G, 4-2 W/L, 2.42 ERA, 7 GS, 44.2 IP, 42 H, 12 R, 12 ER, 15 BB, 42 K, 1.27 WHIP

MMN Rank: 3

Fangraphs Grade: 55

Mahalanobis Comp: Aaron Cook

#3 1B Dominic Smith

2016 Level: Binghamton

2016 Statistics: 130 G, 484 AB, 64 R, 146 H, 29 2B, 2 3B, 14 HR, 91 RBI, 2 SB, .302/.367/.457

MMN Rank: #2

Fangraphs Grade: 50

Mahalanobis Comp: Adrian Gonzalez

#4 RHP Justin Dunn

2016 Level: Brooklyn

2016 Statistics: 11 G/8 GS, 30 IP, 1-1 W-L, 1.50 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, .227 BAA, 35/10 K/BB, 1 HR

MMN Rank: #6

Fangraphs Grade: 50

#5 SS Andres Gimenez

2016 Level: DSL Mets

2016 Statistics:  62 G, 214 AB, 52 R, 75 H, 20 2B, 4 3B, 3 HR, 38 RBI, 46 BB, 22 K, 13 SB, .350/.469/.523

MMN Rank: 9

Fangraphs Grade: 50

Photo Credit: Dustin Satloff/Brooklyn Cyclones

Photo Credit: Dustin Satloff/Brooklyn Cyclones

#6 CF Desmond Lindsay

2016 Level: Brooklyn

2016 Statistics: 37 G, 122 AB, 21 R, 37 H, 6 2B, 4 HR, 17 RBI, 26 BB, 31 K, 3 SB, .303/.433 /.451

MMN Rank: 5

Fangraphs Grade: 45

#7 LHP Thomas Szapucki

2016 Level: Kingsport & Brooklyn

2016 Statistics: 9 G, 52 IP, 4-3 W-L, 1.38 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, .145 BAA, 86/20 K/BB, 2 HR

MMN Rank: 4

Fangraphs Grade: 45

Mahalanobis Comp: Jeremy Hellickson

#8 C Thomas Nido

2016 Level: St. Lucie

2016 Statistics: 90 G, 344 AB, 38 R, 110 H, 23 2B, 7 HR, 46 RBI, 19 BB, 46 K, .320/.357/.459

MMN Rank: 10

Fangraphs Grade: 45

Mahalanobis Comp: Ryan Doumit

#9 OF Brandon Nimmo

2016 Level:  Las Vegas & MLB

2016 MLB Statistics: 32 G, 73 AB, 12 R, 20 H, 2B, HR, 6 RBI, 6 BB/20 SO, .274/.338/.329

2016 MiLB Statistics: 97 G, 392 AB, 72 R, 138 H, 25 2B, 8 3B, 11 HR, 61 RBI, 46 BB/73 SO, 7 SB, 8 CS, .352/.423/.541

MMN Rank: 8

Fangraphs Grade: 45

Mahalanobis Comp: Grady Sizemore

#10 SS Gregory Guerrero

2016 Level: DSL Mets

2016 Statistics:  64 G, 287 AB, 32 R, 61 H, 10 2B, 30 RBI, 28 BB, 51 K, 10 SB, .247/.324/.287

MMN Rank: 19

Fangraphs Grade: 45

gavin cecchini

 

#11 2B Gavin Cecchini

2016 Level: Las Vegas & MLB

2016 MiLB Statistics:  117 G, 499 PA, 446 AB, 71 R, 145 H, 27 2B, 2 3B, 8 HR, 55 RBI, 4 SB, .325/.390/.448

2016 MLB Statistics: 4 G, 7 PA, 6 AB, 2 R, 2 H, 2 2B, 2 RBI, .333/.429/.667

MMN Rank: 7

Fangraphs Grade: 45

Mahalanobis Comp: Carlos Guillen

#12 1B Peter Alonso

2016 Level: Brooklyn

2016 Statistics: 30 G, 109 AB, 20 R, 35 H, 12 2B, 3B, 5 HR, 21 RBI, 11 BB, 22 K, .321/.382/.587

MMN Rank: 12

Fangraphs Grade: 40

#13 RF Wuilmer Becerra

Level: St. Lucie

B/T: R/R Age: 10/01/1994 (22) Age Dif: -1.7

2016 Statistics: 65 G, 247 AB, 27 R, 77 H, 17 2B, HR, 34 RBI, 9 BB/52 K, 7 SB, .319/.341/.393

MMN Rank: #11

Fangraphs Grade: 45

Mahalanobis Comp: Angel Echevarria

#14 LHP Josh Smoker

2016 Level: Las Vegas & MLB

2016 MILB Stats: 52 G, 3-2 W/L, 4.11 ERA, 57 IP, 66 H, 26 ER, 18 BB/81 K, 1.47 WHIP

2016 MLB Stats: 20 G, 3-0 W/L, 4.70 ERA, 15.1 IP, 16 H, 8 ER, 4 BB/25 K, 1.30 WHIP

MMN Rank: 21

Fangraphs Grade: 45

Mahalanobis Comp: Greg McMichael

Photo By Ernest Dove

Photo By Ernest Dove

#15 SS Luis Guillorme

2016 Level: St. Lucie

2016 Statistics: 123 G, 441 AB, 16 2B, 2 3B, HR, 46 RBI, 47 R, 43 BB, 63 SO, .263/.332/.315

MMN Rank: 27

Fangraphs Grade: 40

Mahalanobis Comp: Geoff Blum

#16 RHP Merandy Gonzalez

2016 Level: Brooklyn

2016 MiLB Statistics: 6-3, 2.87 ERA, 14 G, 14 GS, 69.0 IP, 1.33 WHIP, 9.3 K/9

MMN Rank: 17

Fangraphs Grade: 40

Mahalanobis Comp: Roy Oswalt

#17 RHP Marcos Molina

2016 Level: St. Lucie Mets (2015)

2015 MiLB Statistics: 1-5, 4.57 ERA, 8 G, 7 GS, 41.1 IP, 1.452 WHIP, 7.8 K/8

2016 AFL Statistics: 0-0, 3.78 ERA, 7 G, 2 GS, 16.2 IP, 1.380 WHIP, 4.3 K/9

MMN Rank: 13

Fangraphs Grade: 40

#18 CF Ricardo Cespedes

2016 Level: Kingsport Mets

2016 Statistics: 56 G, 227 AB, 30 R, 73 H, 4 2B, 3 3B, HR, 16 RBI, 9 BB/36 K, .322/.356/.379

MMN Rank: 22

Fangraphs Grade: 40

Mahalanobis Comp: Juan Encarnacion

#19 UTIL Luis Carpio

2016 Level: GCL Mets &  Brooklyn Cyclones

2016 Statistics: 20 G, 74 AB, 7 R, 15 H, 3 2B, 3B, 3 RBI, 9 BB, 21 K, .203/.314/.270

MMN Rank: 16

Fangraphs Grade: 40

#20 RHP Paul Sewald

2016 Level: Las Vegas

2016 Statistics: 56 G, 65.2 IP, 5-3 W/L record, 19 SV, 3.29 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 80 K/21 BB

MMN Rank: # 38

Fangraphs Grade: 40

Mahalanobis Comp: Randy Wells

Other names considered by Fangraphs, in order, were LHP Anthony Kay, INF T.J. Rivera, RF Edinson Valdez, C Ali Sanchez, RHP Harol Gonzalez, RHP Chris Flexen, RHP Andrew Church, CF Anthony Dirocie, CF Champ Stuart, RHP Daison Acosta, SS Colby Woodmansee, RHP Michel Otanez, OF Raul Beracierta, RHP Nabil Crismatt, 1B, Jhoan Urena, and 3B David Thompson

Reviewing the list, the Fangraphs model and analysis seems to be more aggressive in their rankings of minor league relievers than MMN has been.

A perfect example of this was the disparity between the rankings in Smoker and Sewald.  As these prospects progress and move towards the major leagues, it will be interesting to see how well the KATOH System is at projecting these minor league players.

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  • TexasGusCC

    Well, I just don’t know what they are thinking. To start, where’s Buccerra’s name? Are they kidding me?
    Next, why is Smith, who pitched in high school and throws 94 have an average arm?
    Lindsey is also given a raw deal.
    Zapucki was given below average control, but the guy has never had issues.

    Just rediculous. I’m sorry I had bated breath for them. If Fangraphs is putting five guys in the top100 but the system is average overall, speaks volume for how they feel about the remaining players on the list.

  • Buddy3

    The comp for Szapucki is Jeremy Hellickson.?????????? We need to get those computer nerds out of their mother’s basement and have them actually watch a baseball game. Stop screaming for more meatloaf and embrace the beautiful game Ridiculous.