The First Year Player Draft is quickly approaching: three days, and thankfully dwindling. I’m getting antsy waiting to see who will be a new Mets Top Prospect, and there’s so much to look forward to as the Mets have 41 picks waiting to happen. Today however, we have a list of five guys we believe the Mets could pick with some of their selections.

19th Overall Pick

Will Craig, 1B/3B – Wake Forest, 6’3″, 235 lbs, R/R College Stats

The guy at this point is a consensus choice among all national mocks, and is going to get the longest explanation from me. Craig has been mocked to the Mets 14 times in 79 possible mocks, which is eight more than the next player. At this point it may be a foregone conclusion that the Mets are into the college BAT of Will Craig, who is likely one of the best pure hitters in college aside from Zack Collins and Kyle Lewis. A .392/.537/.766 hitter with 16 home runs, Craig oozes some nice bat speed and ability to put the bat on the ball from the right side of the plate.

As well, he is able to draw walks very easily, and produce some high On-Base-Percentages and doesn’t strike out very easily. The top knocks to watch for is his subpar performance in the Wood-Bat Cape League, and the fact that Wake Forest’s ballpark is a hitter’s park, likely juicing his numbers slightly. His bat could easily produce a .280 20+ home run season annually despite these issues.

The main issue for why Craig isn’t considered for higher than #19 is because of his body-type, and why I accentuated bat at the top. As MLB.com noted in their report and I’ll repeat, “If he was body beautiful, he’d be the first player taken”.

Craig is a large guy in general, has a plus arm that he also uses when pitching as Wake Forest’s closer. This could be helpful as he has below-average speed, but with legs like tree-trunks, giving him below-average speed, and limited lateral mobility. While displaying fine hands, the mobility is the main fear for many scouts. That could be a concern for him sticking at third base in the long run, and may sooner or later force a change to the other infield corner.

My Take: I’ve been on the fence about this pick, but it’s not in my hands, so i’ll try to see what I can do to change your mind, and mine. Craig is the most advanced and complete hitter in this draft, despite playing in a bandbox and hitting poorly in the Cape League, and that’s fantastic, but the questions about his defense are not favorable. When looking on the bright side of this potential pick, I need to note a few things:

• He’s a guy who works very hard on everything he has done, and when challenged by his coach, he has exceeded expectations. He changed his diet to try to make him more mobile, and able to play at third, and the Mets have Barwis doing workouts at their Port St. Lucie that assist at agility. It may not make him improve exponentially, but it could definitely improve with the workouts.
• Should Craig stay at third base, it may not be an idealized circumstance and be at the range of a Machado, Donaldson, or Arenado. However, Third base isn’t usually considered a primary defensive position like Shortstop, Middle Infield, and Catcher. In some circumstances, you can possibly trade some defense for offense, and especially with Mets’ current offensive woes, having a little sacrifice could help. Not every pick is going to be sexy or have pizzazz, or five tools, especially not a top college performer, but if he’s adequate, it could play.
• They may be using an under-slot pick to go after for more upside later. An under slot pick could indeed fetch a high-upside arm with a high-demanded bonus in a later round such as a Chris Flexen, or a more elusive player that got away like J.B. Woodman or Anthony Kay, or A.J. Reed.
• If he can’t stick at third, he or Dominic Smith can be used as a trade chip for something of need. That’s the beauty of prospects.

Either way, the Yankees, who pick before the Mets have been tied to Craig heavily as well, so let’s see what happens there. I must remind fans, we have no say in this pick, whatsoever, so let’s hope Scouting Director Tommy Tanous and Farm Director Ian Levin know what they’re doing.

Matt Thaiss C – University Of Virginia, 5’11″, 197 lbs, L/R College Stats

You’re going to ask why another college guy? According to national mocks, the Mets are only interested in college position players, and if Craig is taken, Matt Thaiss is possibly their next guy. Thaiss is another college top performer, this time at catcher, and is possibly the best catcher in the draft after Zack Collins, who will be selected before him in the top 10-15 picks. A college performer, but yet again, not a Cape League one, Thaiss is an excellent Left-Handed Bat, hitting .380/.474/.585 slash line, with 10 homers, and a 37/16 BB/K ratio in a home stadium designed for pitchers. He can hit line drives to all fields, and has average power. As an advanced bat with a patient approach, he has the ability hit and get on base for a good average and OBP.

The knock, as with most college position players with first round caliber that aren’t Kyle Lewis or Nick Senzel, is that they aren’t great defensively, and that continues here with Thaiss. Not a pretty receiver, he has some rough hands behind the plate. He’s allowed 12 passed balls behind the plate in 60 games this past season. One net positive is that he has an above-average arm behind the plate, and a decent release, but his hands are going to need a lot of work if he’s going to stay behind the bag. Should the Mets believe they can help clean up the hands behind the plate, he may be what they’re looking for in a catching prospect at #19

My Take: I’d be disappointed if he was the #19 pick, because if the Yankees don’t take him at 18, he wouldn’t be taken until the 30′s if the Mets passed. As well, it would prove the Mets pro-scouts haven’t learned their lesson about getting a catcher with subpar defense, which Rene Rivera proves is very essential. I’d hope that if Craig isn’t there, they go for a high school bat, preferably one that can take Wright’s mantle.

31st Overall Pick

Taylor Trammell, OF – Mount Paran Christian School, 6’3″, 195 lbs, L/L

As I wrote last week on MetsMinors.net: Another double-plus runner, Trammell has at least four potential tools to work with, and the last one, his arm, he’s worked to improve.

With a quick left-handed swing, Trammell could probably hit for a decent average, should he hone some his raw nature. He is split between two sports, and has not completely worked out how to recognize off speed pitches and have a plan up at the plate. Should he choose one sport finally, he has a decent chance to hit, and hit well. He also has the potential for 15-20 homers annually, should he learn to tap into his power.

Because of his speed, he should be able to steal plenty of bases, and cover plenty of ground in center field. However, his arm is below average, but he has worked hard to improve it, and that has shown up as a positive development lately. He is definitely a high-upside pick the Mets would love to pick.

My Take: Trammell is a true boom-or-bust guy, considering his speed being close to top of the charts, and will allow him to stick in Center Field. As a left-handed hitter, he’s a raw player stuck between two sports, but one with upside, and no matter the consequence, upside’s a good choice.

Kevin Gowdy, RHP – Santa Barbara High School, 6’2″, 170 lbs, R/R

Kevin Gowdy is definitely a high-upside high school arm with a lot of projection. A great sized pitcher with a commitment to UCLA along with elite draftees Mickey Moniak and Blake Rutherford, Gowdy sits in the low 90′s, touching 95, with room to fill in on his skinny frame. The delivery is easy and repeatable from over the top, and he has plenty of control along with it. He has performed well on the pro circuits, such as the Area Code Games, but at times his velocity became inconsistent and dropped to the high-80′s.

As well, he has a sweeping curveball that sits in the 70′s, which has plus potential, and a decent changeup that needs a bit more use and refinement, but can become above-average at times. With high potential and a great commitment to a big baseball school like UCLA, he could be a tough signee.

My Take: This seems like another high upside pick to go after, and with the organization always needing high-upside Arms, this could be a great guy to get, and could be a fast-moving arm. This is where the ability to go over-slot may come in handy.

64th Overall Pick – Second Round

Luis Curbelo, SS – Cocoa HS, 6’3″, 185 lbs, R/R

For people in the know, Curbelo should come as no surprise as he headed a Mets Scout-run Puerto Rican Prospect team that played in Jupiter, as well as Puerto Rico. Curbelo moved from the Puerto Rican Baseball Academy, Carlos Correa’s former High School, to Cocoa High School in Florida for his senior year.

This exciting shortstop has above-average bat speed from the right side, that produces some pretty loud contact, with power that is below-average right now, but could possibly get to above-average with some good coaching. As a fielder, he doesn’t have the greatest actions and he’s an average runner with an average arm, but he could move to the hot corner. He sounds like a guy that should be available in round 2 with some untapped potential.

With this pick Curbelo would be the highest ever draft of a Puerto Rican Native by the Mets. Javier Rodriguez was the prior highest at #68.

My Take: I need to make a few amendments to Curbelo’s scouting report. The arm is above-average, the bat speed is plus, and when I mean the greatest actions, I mean at shortstop, third base he can be above-average. I think he would be a great pick, and if he is selected by the Mets, they already know what they’re getting, and possibly can get him under-slot despite a commitment to University of Miami. A high pick from Puerto Rico wouldn’t surprise me either because of a lot of drafts by the Alderson Era with players like Joel Huertas, Arnaldo Berrios and Kenneth Bautista drafted in recent years.