Chris Mitchell from FanGraphs uses a system called KATOH to try and project what prospects will produce for WAR through their age-28 season. To qualify for the list the player must have had 300 plate appearances or faced that many batters in 2015. He only uses the 2015 players statistics for the calculations.
There are three Mets prospects on his list with shortstop Gavin Cecchini being the highest rated at #14. The projection shows Cecchini accumulating 11.2 WAR in the Majors through his age-28 season. He was the 2015 Eastern League Rookie of the Year after hitting .317/.377/.442 for the Binghamton Mets.
First base prospect Dominic Smith was the second Met on the list at #53 with him producing 5.6 WAR according to the projections. Smith was the Florida State League Most Valuable Player this season after hitting .305/.354/.417 with a league leading 33 doubles and 79 RBI.
The last Met on the list is the young lefty Steven Matz who ranks 86th with 4 WAR coming off a strong season combined with the Mets and the Las Vegas 51’s. In the minors this year he was 8-4 with a 2.05 ERA and 1.063 WHIP while striking out 107 batters in 105 innings.
I was very surprised when I saw Cecchini that high on the list, not because I don’t believe he will be an impact player for the Mets. More because I know some in the prospect world don’t view him as highly as I do. Two factors come into play though because he will start the 2016 season at only 22 years old and at the AAA level.
The projection for Smith seems fair with him probably being ready for full-time major league duty for the 2018 season when Lucas Duda becomes a free agent. Smith is still only 20 years old and will likely begin the 2016 season with the AA Binghamton Mets.
The projection on Matz is very low to me considering he had a 1.2 WAR in just six big league starts this season for the Mets and will start next year at age 24. Wouldn’t be crazy to see him be a 4 WAR pitcher in the 2016 campaign alone.
Here are a few tidbits that help understand the ratings he came up with a little more:
- Strikeout rate matters a lot for hitters, especially when they’re in the low minors.
- Walk rate matters very little for hitters, especially when they’re in the low minors. For hitters in Rookie ball, I found no evidence that walk rate is predictive at all.
- BABIP matters more for hitters in the low minors than for hitters in the high minors.
- Age matters more for hitters in the low minors than for hitters in the high minors.
- Strikeout rate matters more than walk rate for pitchers, but only slightly.
- Pre-professional background matters more for pitchers in the low minors than for pitchers in the high minors.
To read the entire explanation on how he calculates the projection you can read it here.
That Matz projection is embarrassingly low.
Yeah, he should be a lot higher.
Ya I thought so too, Shows that there are definitely some flaws in his system. Still interesting to read and take a look at though. And he does tweak things every year if he finds something that he thinks will make it more accurate.
I think the injuries and history has to be what kept Matz down. Then again, he’s only 24, so he’d have to probably miss like 75% of the next three and a half years, to only have that KATOH total when he turns 28 at the end of May 2019. Weird.