Keith Law is rolling out his top prospect list, starting with 100-81 on ESPN Insider. At #84 is Mets pitching prospect Justin Dunn, the 19th overall selection and the Mets first pick in the 2016 draft.
Law has this to say about the Mets prospect: “Dunn has always had a good arm and is a tremendous athlete, but he didn’t throw this hard or throw many strikes until 2016. Now, Dunn is throwing 93-96 mph with plus life along with a plus changeup that might end up a 70 pitch, and he throws both for strikes.” MMO ranks Dunn as the Mets’ 6th best prospect.
Dunn’s repertoire is based off his fastball, which sits in the mid 90s, and tops out at 97 mph. He throws a slider and and curveball, which flash in the low-80s. If his fastball is labeled as “plus,” his breaking balls would fall around “average.” Dunn also throws a developing change-up which, as Law mentions above, can turn into a “plus plus” pitch for him.
In 2016 he appeared in 11 games at Brooklyn, eight of which he started. He logged 30 innings, going 1-1 with a 1.50 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, .227 BAA, and 35/10 K/BB. The 21 year old righty will probably start with St. Lucie (A+) to begin the 2017 season, but unless they project him as a reliever in the major leagues, there is really no need to rush his development. Wherever he pitches, Dunn will need to work on his stamina and secondary pitches to be successful at higher levels.
Im happy with this ranking. Kids pitched only 30 pro innings. So being ranked top 100 mlb i see as impressive and solid.
Love all the berbal bouquets that Dunn is receiving, but the kid had never been a full time starter ever. Stamina is obviously an unknown. However, the tools are pretty good so far.
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