In the second part of our Know Your Enemy series I cover the Atlanta Braves system, you can catch up with the Marlins system here. A system I am sure we are all tired of hearing about. Though there is some justification for the amount of attention the system is garnering, since John Hart joined the organization in the fall of 2014 they have improved vastly. Though it could be said the system was one of the worst at the time and they had nowhere to go but up.
#1 Dansby Swanson SS Video
2016 Opening Day Age: 22 Height/Weight: 6’0” Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Acquired: Drafted first overall by Arizona in the 2015 MLB Draft, Vanderbilt University, signed for $6.5 million; acquired by Atlanta from Arizona in deal for Shelby Miller
Notable rankings: 2016 BA #17 OVR, 2016 MLB #7 OVR, #4 SS,
2015 Stats: 289/.394/.482, 1 HR at short-season Hillsboro
Thoughts/Comps: Should climb to the majors quickly, and from what I have seen, the makeup appears to be everything we heard. Solid profile across the board with no tool that would be deficient, solid hit tool, with some pop, and good foot speed, with his defense being his best tool. Which may be why he gets the “high floor” label, which has become something of a blackmark somehow. Make no mistake he has the makings of a solid major league player. I think he debuts next year forcing a decision between him and Albies in the winter of 2017. A nice comp player would be Dustin Pedroia, but if I have to list a SS, I will go with Michael Young
#2 Ozhaino Albies SS Video
2016 Opening Day Age: 19 Height/Weight: 5’9” 160 Bats/Throws: S/R
Drafted/Acquired: Signed out of the Curacao July 2013 for $350,000
Notable rankings: 2016 BA #63, 2016 MLB #28 OVR, #10 SS
2015 Stats: .310/.368/.404, 0 HR, 29 SB at Low-A Rome
Thoughts/Comps: An aggressive assignment to AA at age 19, he could push for a September call up this year. (A valuable 40 man spot for the offseason may keep him off though) His future would be pencilled in at SS and at the top of the order in just about every organization in baseball, the Danson acquisition complicates that, but either player could capably play 2B. He is a burner, but makes more hard contact than one would expect someone of his size. Good contact ability and quick hands on both sides of the ball. Another in the long line of Braves SS in the Rafael Furcal mold.
#3 Sean Newcomb LHP Video
2016 Opening Day Age: 22 Height/Weight: 6’5” 240 lbs Bats/Throws: L/L
Drafted/Acquired: Drafted 15th overall in the 2014 MLB Draft, University of Hartford; signed for $2.5184 million; acquired by Atlanta in deal for Andrelton Simmons
Notable rankings: BA #24 OVR, MLB #20 OVR, LHP # 4
2015 Stats: 2.38 ERA, 136 IP, 97 H, 76 BB, 168 K at Low-A Burlington, High-A Inland Empire and Double-A Arkansas
Thoughts/Comps: A name familiar to most Met fans, the New England native was on many mock drafts to be the Mets 2014 first round selection. The southpaw possess top of the rotation upside that comes with a heavy mid 90’s FB. His curve and change up are at a minimum major league offerings, both of which are easily projectable to plus. With a workhorse body build, he should complete his quick ascension to the major leagues this year. A young Jon Lester comes to mind.
#4 Austin Riley 3B Video
2016 Opening Day Age: 19 Height/Weight: 6’3” 220 lbs Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Acquired: Drafted 41st overall in the 2015 MLB Draft, DeSoto Central HS (Southaven, MS); signed for $1.6 million
Notable rankings: MLB #6 3B
2015 Stats: 304/.389/.544, 12 HR, 2 SB at Gulf Coast League and short-season Danville
Thoughts/Comps: A competitive balance pick who many teams had scouted as a pitcher. Riley makes solid hard contact consistently, and has plus power. He has a thick base and the slow feet that generally come with it. His hands are decent but not above average, the arm is outstanding, (clocked in mid 90s on throws to first) The bat will get him to the majors, may need to move across the diamond though. Aramis Ramirez upside with a fall back of a hard throwing RP.
#5 Aaron Blair RHP Video
2016 Opening Day Age: 23 Height/Weight: 6’5” 230 lbs Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Acquired: Drafted by Arizona 36th in the 2013 MLB Draft, Marshall University, signed for $1.435 million; acquired by Arizona from Atlanta in deal for Shelby MIller
Notable rankings: 2015 BA #40 OVR; 2016 #60 OVR, 2015 MLB #81 OVR; 2016 #54 OVR;
2015 Stats: 2.92 ERA, 160.1 IP, 137 H, 60 BB, 120 K at Double-A Mobile and Triple-A Reno
Thoughts/Comps: Originally drafted by the Astros in 2010, the athletic but big bodied Blair will be one of the first arms called upon in Atlanta this season. His athleticism allows him to repeat his easy delivery consistently. His FB will top out in the low-mid 90’s but does possess good movement, which compliments his plus changeup. His curveball shows to be above average, with some more work it could be a plus pitch. On the mound he keeps his poise and attacks hitters. When he solidifies his place in the majors he will be an innings eater with consistent but not flashy game. John Lackey upside
#6 Lucas Sims RHP Video
2016 Opening Day Age: 21 Height/Weight: 6’2” 225 lbs Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Acquired: Drafted 21st overall in the 2012 MLB draft, Brookwood HS (Snellville, GA); signed for $1.65 million
Notable rankings: BA 2014 #57, 2014 MLB #60
2015 Stats: 4.37 ERA, 92.2 IP, 75 H, 54 BB, 100 K at Gulf Coast League, High-A Carolina and Double-A Mississippi
Thoughts/Comps: Almost an afterthought now within the system, Sims is the only player on this list that has more tenure in the Braves organization than Hart. Sims works with a mid 90’s FB that was hitting 97 in the AFL. His curveball is currently his only other plus offering, but its sharp downward break it is a plus leaning towards plus plus. His change is improving, with his consistent delivery and arm action, it has the potential to be an above average offering. With mid-rotation upside, Esteban Loaiza is a name that comes to mind.
#7 Touki Toussaint RHP Video
2016 Opening Day Age: 19 Height/Weight: 6’3” 185 lbs Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Acquired: Drafted 16th overall by Arizona in the 2014 MLB Draft, Coral Springs Christian Academy (Coral Springs, FL); signed for $2.7 million; acquired by Atlanta in deal with Bronson Arroyo for Phil Gosselin
Notable rankings: 2015 BA #71, 2016 #90; 2015 MLB #90
2015 Stats: 4.83 ERA, 87.2 IP, 71 H, 48 BB, 67 K at Low-A Kane County and Low-A Rome
Thoughts/Comps: He has the highest upside of any arm in the system. His FB could be a true plus plus if he can command it, and his curve ball dances to the plate. That said he has not shown the ability to do so for strikes consistently yet. There is a lot of movement in his delivery, and he struggles to repeat it. He has an ace ceiling with a high leverage reliever fallback plan, Tom Gordon is the name mentioned as a comp.
#8 Kolby Allard LHP Video
2016 Opening Day Age: 18 Height/Weight: 6’1” 180 lbs Bats/Throws: L/L
Drafted/Acquired: Drafted 14th overall in the 2015 MLB Draft, San Clemente HS (San Clemente, CA); signed for $3.0424 million
Notable rankings: BA #84, MLB #87 OVR, #10 LHP
2015 Stats: 0.00 ERA, 6 IP, 1 H, 0 BB, 12 K at Gulf Coast League
Thoughts/Comps: The California HS prep arm southpaw hit the ground running in his first foray into pro ball. His easy delivery helps his low-mid 90’s FB play up and works well with his plus curveball. Really the only reason he is this low is his injury history, stress reaction in his back in HS, and had surgery at the end of last season that has kept him back in Kissimmee. Depending on when the SS graduate he can easily be the Braves #1 prospect heading into next season. His command and curveball look very Zito like to me.
#9 Mallex Smith OF Video
2016 Opening Day Age: 22 Height/Weight: 5’9” 180 lbs Bats/Throws: L/R
Drafted/Acquired: Drafted in the 5th round (165th overall) by the San Diego Padres in 2012 (signed for $375,000) acquired from SD in the Justin Upton trade
Notable rankings: None
2015 Stats: .303/.371/.378 with 56 SB
Thoughts/Comps: Pure speed, makes solid contact but has no lift in his swing at worst will be a fleet footed weak armed fourth OF, at best take your pick on a ceiling comp, Bourne, Pierre, Revere…
2016 Opening Day Age: 22 Height/Weight: 6’4” 185 lbs Bats/Throws: L/L
Drafted/Acquired: Drafted seventh overall by San Diego in the 2012 MLB Draft, Harvard-Westlake School (Los Angeles, CA); signed for $3 million; Acquired in deal for Justin Upton
Notable rankings: 2013 BA #46, 2014 #53; 2013 MLB #53, 2014 #43
2015 Stats: DNP
Thoughts/Comps: A forgotten prospect who missed 2015 returning from TJS, Atlanta managed to get him in the deal that sent Upton to SD. Prior to the injury he showed a mid 90s FB with good command, a solid change, and a plus curve. He should work his way up as he returns, probably topping out at AA this year depending on how aggressive ATL plans to be with him. During the 2012 Draft he was comped to Barry Zito, though I think he throws a bit harder.
Overview: The quickest way to rebuild a system is find two over aggressive GMs who are new to the job. There are other prospects of note in the system as well. Where I had difficulty finding 10 Marlins worth inclusion, trimming the Braves down to 10 was the challenge. I omitted Hector Olivera though he technically qualified, but at age 31 he will not be a major part of the future (edit or at all based on legal issues). Mike Soroka is worth watching, a potential #3 starter, he would probably be the next one up as a few players graduate this year.
Former Met farmhand, John Gant who I would have loved to put on this list would be among the top 15. As would Tyrell Jenkins and Braxton Davidson. Having 15-20 very likely major league contributors in the organization is how it gets a lot of press. Unfortunately for the Mets, the Braves are also expected to be major players in this year’s IFA including top prospect Kevin Maitan.
