I’m not sure about any of you, but I believe but Tomas Nido has been one of the biggest Mets surprises on the farm in the 2016 season. Drafted out of Orangewood Christian School in the 8th round of the 2013 Draft, Tomas Nido was known for his power, and was the battery mate on his travel team with now-major leaguer Robert Whalen (I can’t stop saying this, I’m too proud).
At draft time, his scouting report from Baseball America went like this:
Nido isn’t quite a one-tool player; the Florida State signee has average arm strength. But his calling card is plus-plus raw power, as he has strength and takes a big, powerful swing, generating above-average bat speed. He’s a slow-twitch athlete, and it may be a stretch for him to stay behind the plate. He has a tendency to sell out for power, even though he doesn’t need to with his strength. Nido had late helium and was doing some individual workouts for teams, and if he puts on a power display with wood, he could be drafted highly.
Baseball America was very correct on him selling out for power, which wasn’t a very wise approach, slashing a .246/.286/.336 in his first 218 games with 32 doubles, 2 triples, and 10 homers, and having to play Brooklyn in both his age 19 and 20 years. In addition, his catching was not very good to start, so he needed to work on that, especially with the arm strength that started out as just average as the above scouting report notes. The underwhelming performance offensively and defensively caused many to lose faith in him as he entered his age-22 year in St. Lucie.
Michael Mayer and I had a debate to start the top-80 prospects about Nido, and I wanted him on, while he wanted him off. I won, put him on at #74, citing his ceiling, though he had underwhelmed so far. Apparently I wasn’t alone, as MLB’s Jonathan Mayo and Mets Farm Director Ian Levin stated they were high on him with prior to the year starting, citing a strong showing in spring training. Now even with a strong spring training a player can underwhelm, such as Angel Manzanarez has, so it means barely anything. However, Nido didn’t stop clubbing after joining High-A St. Lucie.
This year in his age-22 season, Nido is hitting .320/.351/.470 in High-A with 7 homers and 22 doubles. He has set career highs in hits, home runs, and lows in K percentage with 11.9%, a drop-off of from last year’s 25.7%. The Florida State League, which he leads in batting average, is notoriously known for being harsh offensively due to many of the baseball parks, as well as the competition from tough college players.
Also, on defense, he has gone above and beyond, throwing out an excellent 40% of base runners and being a smooth receiver behind the dish. It looks like at age-22, Nido has turned the corner, and has impressed many, including Baseball Prospectus, who wrote this scouting report about him. (FYI, the scale is a 20-80 sliding scale, and they vary in what they indicate, but usually a 50 is above average.)
A report like that gives someone hope, especially since it projects a pretty above-average catcher, offensively, and defensively (and Baseball Prospectus is usually an outlet that pulls no punches, so take that for what it’s worth) and an emergence in a stark system in terms of catching talent, as well as the MLB in general. Many of the highly touted catchers that have come out of a lot of these systems have crashed and burned, including the Mets’ Travis d’Arnaud and Kevin Plawecki, as well as Mariners’ Mike Zunino, and others have struggled either offensively, defensively, or both.
But people have issues calling him a prospect because it took him a long time to actually get to this point. Let me help ease their minds:
Catchers are incredibly hard to develop, especially High School ones, because a majority of them are incredibly raw behind the plate, especially if they are great offensively. Two-way catchers are rarer than a pink diamond in general, which was why the Brewers could ask the Mets for a Michael Conforto or Zack Wheeler. If the organization believes the catcher will stick and they’re not showing their tools to the best of their ability, they’ll keep them back.
Also, if they like their bat a lot, they can forgo catcher and place him anywhere else like first base, or even right field. For example the Mariners (disappointment) Alex Jackson and Wil Myers while he was with Kansas City, or if you’re digging deeper, Jayson Werth. Doing that speeds up the ETA of the bat, without the necessity of developing the glove of one of the most important defensive positions on the field.
There’s a reason for that: usually the strain is too much as well, as catchers are squatting most of the game, have to lead the pitcher, call the game, remember every sign, throw down to second, and several countless jobs. It’s pretty tough to be in their shoes, and leading the field in general. You need to be a natural leader, and be able to position well and control the field, or else people are rampant.
Nido at 22 is actually relatively young in the Florida State League, considering most players coming to the league are either 20-21 coming into the year. An Amed Rosario at age 19 in 2015 does not happen very often, and most of the players are actually older. Nido currently is 0.7 younger the league average in age, according to Baseball Reference.
As for the bat, prospects are all different, they have different trajectories in general, and different tools manifest at different times in development. As I like to joke, “different strokes for different folks”. Some just have certain habits and mechanics to work on in general as they move up the ladder, and some work better with certain hitting coaches than others when it comes to learning the thing that will make you a better player, whether it’s timing, mechanics, mental, physical.
Nido abandoned selling out for power and instead opted for contact and trusting his natural strength. His isolated slugging is up to .150, which was .060 up from the last four year’s average, and climbing. With his natural power, it may get better as he develops and possibly evolve into 15+ homers, which is superlative for a catcher.
Should Nido continue down this road and hit well in Binghamton, the Mets will start seeing him more on the radar, but they may have to protect him from this upcoming Rule 5 draft. I’m sure the team will also consider sending Nido to the Arizona Fall League, come October, and a Top 10 prospect in the system now.
If Nido’s tools continue improve and polish up, there may be a better heir to the catching position than Travis d’Arnaud and Kevin Plawecki are indicating right now.
Great great piece Teddy. I didn’t realize how good of a season Nido was having. Between him and Sanchez, I think we’re gonna be all right in the future at the backstop.
That being said, I still prefer an all defense, great game caller catcher over a slightly offensive minded one anyday.
Nido is very promising. I’ve been keeping tabs this season.
But Teddy, what I’m about to say is not meant with any ill will, but in my opinion, you really need to tidy up your writing. I got the impression it was written by school kid. I’m familiar with your Dad’s work – perhaps he can offer feedback on this article.
I noticed later I made a few grammatical mistakes, no spelling. This is the first analysis i’ve done in a while.
Wow AA next year and maybe ready by 2018 if all goes right! I don’t think TDA is the answer.
Nido’s always been an interesting prospect, but he’s sort of fallen off the radar with mediocre performances and the likes of d’Arnaud, Plawecki, and Sanchez being very exciting prospects. Now that he’s having a fantastic season and those 3 are underperforming, he’s finally getting some attention, which is nice. Personally, I’m really high on the guy. He made the improvements that he needed to make and now he’s no longer a high K guy and he looks like he’ll be able to stay behind the plate. I think he could be at least an average starting catcher. Nice analysis Teddy.
There is a possibility that he’s a Sep. call up in 2017, since he’s Rule 5 eligible this year. I’m not sure if they’ll add him this off-season, but he’ll definitely need to be added before next season (barring a major injury), so we might see him next year.
Good work Teddy.
Great article!
Didnt know anything about him. I hope your optimism is correct because I am nervous about this position for the Mets future.
Excellent in depth report, Teddy. What gets me excited is the way he seems to have turned it around. If he keeps on that growth curve his skills could gel nicely as he moves up the organization.
I really enjoyed reading it, thorough analysis and now Nido is on my radar. I love your use of language and if this guy makes it big he needs to be the Pink Diamond!
Great work Teddy. I haven’t given up on TDA because I remember an interview with Yadier Molina where he says that the Cards told him they didn’t care about results for the first four years and concentrate on defense. However, the fools in Queens left TDA without a catching
Good piece overall but would they really have to protect someone who hasn’t seen AA from the rule 5 draft?
The Cards – what do they know?
Good work Teddy. I had the chance to see Nido when he played against Batavia and recall being impressed by his bat in the game … but wondering what I was looking at in the stat sheets.
Great to him come alive.
Oscar Hernandez was drafted from low-a by the D’Backs two years ago.
Great article Teddy was hoping to see an in depth report on him and was excited to read your report. He really seems to have stepped up his entire game to becoming an all around very good catcher. Throwing out 40% of base runners is great at any level. Thanks again for the great work Teddy.
questions, comments, insights?
Was that in the minor league rule 5 or the major league one
MLB, first overall pick
How many 40 man spots will be open at the end of the year assuming no one is extended or DFA’d between now and then?
Colon, Walker, Loney, Blevins, KJ, and De Aza will be free agents.
Nope…I think your assessment was on point.
Well, that’s lofty praise.
And we have 3 guys on the 60 day DL correct?