With Major League Baseball’s amateur player draft set to take place in only two short weeks, prospect pundits have begun releasing their mock drafts. This year, the opinion on which player the Mets will select has been quite varied. Over the last several weeks, the Mets have been connected to virtually every player expected to be taken in the middle of the first round. This is due to a variety of factors, most notably the COVID-19 pandemic.
Yesterday, Carlos Collazo of Baseball America released his fifth mock of the year, predicting the Mets land Garrett Crochet, a southpaw out of Tennessee. Crochet’s the second highest rated college southpaw in the draft, only behind Texas A&M LHP Asa Lacy, who is expected to hear his name called among the first three picks.
Crochet’s current arsenal consists of a triple-digit fastball, which has above-average horizontal movement, and a slider that’s one of the better offspeed deliveries in the draft. His frame and arm angle are similar to David Peterson, the Mets’ first-rounder in 2017.
If he can’t develop an effective third pitch, his future may lie in the bullpen, where his fastball/slider combo could play up. He could wind up pitching in a Josh Hader/Andrew Miller type role. He was shut down after only 3.1 innings this spring due to shoulder soreness, which could scare teams off. If teams are wary of his future in the rotation, he could be fast-tracked to the Majors in a relief role.
Shortly after Collazo published his piece, Eric Logenhagen of Fangraphs unveiled his mock. Logenhagen has prep outfielder Austin Hendrick falling to pick No.19. Hendrick is expected to be drafted in the top ten picks so it’s certainly a shock to see him falling this far. Hendrick has one of the best hit/power combo among the high-school bats, although there’s plenty of risk in his profile.
Despite impressive bat speed, many aren’t sold that his hit tool will play up as he advances up the minor-league ladder. Even though his hit tool comes into question, there’s no doubting his power. Fangraphs’s big board has current raw power at a 60.
The Mets’ last two drafts have seen them take prep bats in the first round who are old for their draft status and Hendrick falls into this category. Although no one else thinks that Hendrick will fall this low, there’s an outside chance the Mets could snatch him up at 19.
Earlier this morning, Keith Law of The Athletic published his second mock of the spring, predicting the Mets select Ed Howard, a shortstop out of Mount Carmel High School. Howard’s been connected to a bunch of teams, but this is the first time he’s been mocked to New York. Law cited the Mets’ interest in high-school bats in his reasoning for his selection of Howard.
One of the aspects that separated the 2018 draft from its predecessors was the number of quality shortstops available in the first round. Howard doesn’t have the same skillset as Bobby Witt Jr or C.J. Abrams, but he’s still considered a high-quality talent.
Howard has above-average defensive and speed tools although his offensive profile could use some work. Impressive bat speed, consistent hard contact, and an above-average frame bode well for his future. As he progresses, it’s expected that he’ll be able to develop average to above-average hit and power tools.
Meanwhile, Jim Callis of MLB.com has the Mets picking Cole Wilcox, a right-hander out of Georgia. Wilcox was expected to go in the first couple of rounds of last year’s draft, but fell through the cracks, eventually being selected by the Nationals in the 37th round.
Wilcox is said to have mid-of-the-rotation potential, with his fastball, change-up, and slider all have above-average qualities. His fastball, in particular, is an excellent offering. It has late action and is only behind Max Mayer’s 101 mph fastball for the fastest pitch among first-round quality draftees. Callis notes the Mets could pivot to catcher Tyler Soderstrom if they want to go the position-player route.
This selection jives with Callis’ tweet, which he sent out earlier today, where he says the Mets are considering college right-handers.
Other players that have been mocked to the Mets include prep right-hander Jared Kelley, prep outfielder Pete Crow-Armstrong, Missippi State second-baseman Justin Foscue, South Carolina right-hander Carmen Mlodzinski, and UCLA outfielder Garrett Mitchell.
Due to COVID-19, teams and prospect analysts are at the same disadvantage: both have had limited looks at players. Teams have to rely on video from last year or look at a player’s video on an MLB-certified database that has been specifically created for draft-eligible players. Since players are unable to play this year, there aren’t many players that have much “helium” going into draft day.
Add in the facts that this year’s draft was cut to five rounds and that hundreds of minor-league players are losing their jobs daily and it’s bound to be a draft that’s unprecedented in a number of ways.
The first round of the draft will be on June 10th at 7 p.m. It will be streamed on MLB Network and ESPN.
