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Mets Draft LHP Anthony Kay With 31st Overall Pick

By Michael Mayer

June 9, 2016 4 Comments

(Stephen Slade / Courtesy of UConn)

(Stephen Slade / Courtesy of UConn)

With the compensation pick from Daniel Murphy signing with the Nationals the Mets selected lefty Anthony Kay from Connecticut. He also went to the same high school, Ward Melville, as Steven Matz and was drafted by the Mets in the 29th round in 2013 but did not sign.

Here is video of the Mets new lefty –

What our own Teddy Klein had to say on Kay:

The book on Kay is that he is a polished arm with above-average control from the left side. A smallish, but sturdy-built guy that sits at 91, he can touch 94 or 95. He also has an above-average to possibly plus changeup that he can use to induce a swing and miss, but requires him to drop his arm slot, which will make him susceptible to being figured out at higher levels. He also has a breaking ball, in which he calls a slider, but has not defined itself yet.

Kay should be easy to sign as he’s getting a raise in his payday from what he was likely offered in 2013. He may have to sign an additional form to state he was re-drafted by the same team as before. He’s a safe pick with the upside of a mid-rotation starter, but likely will drop from the 8.39 K-rate he had before, unless he finds another pitch for is arsenal.

What Baseball Prospectus Says:

Kay draws comps to Marco Gonzales, and while I generally hate comps, this one makes a lot of sense. The out-pitch is his change (like Gonzales), a pitch that has lots of fade and excellent deception from his quick arm. He’s a harder thrower than Marco, however, and his fastball will get up to 94 mph while sitting 90-92. The curveball will be the key pitch to watch this spring; when he has it clicking it’s an above-average offering, but in many outings this summer it showed as more of a 40-45 pitch, and that won’t get the job done. There are no delivery con-cerns and the command is above-average, so if he can get that curveball to show more consistently, he’ll go day one. If not, he’s more of a fifth starter candi-date who goes early in day two

Ranked 35th On Baseball America’s Top 500:

A 29th round pick of the Mets out of high school, Kay was one of three promising Long Island prep arms, with Stephen Woods and Matt Vogel also showing promise. All three chose to go to college, and Kay has emerged as the best of the group. The ace of UConn’s staff, Kay throws three pitches for strikes. His fastball works in the low 90s and touches 95 early in his starts. Scouts see his changeup is an above-average or plus pitch; it shows both fade and tumble and generates swings and misses from righthanded hitters regularly. Kay has a tendency to throw his changeup from a slightly lower arm slot, giving scouts concerns that elite hitters will be able to see the pitch coming. He throws a breaking ball with slurvy shape. Kay usually throws the pitch against righthanded hitters, and has not thrown it with conviction this spring. Kay is on the shorter side, standing at 6-foot, but he has a wide, sturdy build.

Ranked #43 on MLB.com

Scouting grades: Fastball: 55 | Slider: 45 | Changeup: 55 | Control: 55 | Overall: 50

The University of Connecticut has produced some excellent pro talent, headlined by George Springer, Nick Ahmed and Matt Barnes. Kay, the Huskies’ Friday night starter, could be the next in line.

Kay fits the mold of the advanced pitchability college lefty, one with a track record of success, not only at UConn, but also in the Cape Cod League in 2014 and with Team USA in 2015. Kay succeeds by filling the strike zone and keeping hitters guessing, albeit with the lack of a true out pitch. He’ll top out at 94-95 mph with his fastball, though he pitches more effectively at around 91 mph. He has a consistently reliable changeup, though he telegraphs it at times by lowering his arm slot. His breaking ball is fringy.

College performers like Kay tend to do well on Draft day. He could be seen as a poor man’s Mark Buehrle type, one who could perhaps add a cutter at the next level to give him a four-pitch mix, helping him to be a quick to the big leagues back-end starter.

 

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