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Mets Top 30 Prospects for 2021: 25-21 Looking For Breakouts

By Doug M

March 23, 2021 No comments

25. Patrick Mazeika, C

B/T: L/R  Age:  27 (10/14/1993)

Height: 6’3″  Weight: 210 lbs

Acquired: 2015 Amateur Draft, eighth round out of Stetson University

ETA: 2021  Previous Rank: N/A

2020 Stats: N/A

2019 Stats: (Double-A Binghamton) 413 AB, .245/.312/.426, 16 HR, 8.9% BB rate, 21.5% K rate

While the 27-year-old Mazeika is no stranger to our annual list here, his prospect status has waxed and waned since he was drafted by the Mets almost six years ago. The good news is, Mazeika’s arrow is pointing up, as he recently claimed the clear third catcher spot on the current 40-man roster.

It’s been a long road in Mazeika’s journey to convince Mets evaluators that he could stick behind the plate defensively. But thanks to a lot of work improving his receiving skills, Mazeika now projects to be a solid to average framer, and can sufficiently block balls and make plays around the plate. His throwing arm still rates as fringe, but for now, that is a less important overall aspect of the catcher’s defensive repertoire.

The left-handed hitting Mazeika has also had some highs and lows offensively. Mazeika exploded onto the scene after being drafted, torching rookie league pitching during his draft summer, and really not slowing down until he hit a wall the last couple of season at Double-A Binghamton, seeing his strikeout rate rise and his batting average plummet. Though Mazeika has never been young for his league assignments, it should go without saying that the transition to seeing upper minors pitching can be an eye-opening one regardless.

Speaking of eyes, Mazeika has a great one at the plate, boasting an admirable 1.3 K/BB ratio. His smooth lefty swing is geared more for line drive gap power, but Mazeika did work on turning on inside pitches he could handle more, and slugged a career best 16 home runs in 2019. The word out of the alternate site and Fall instructs was that Mazeika was swinging the bat well, and Mets evaluators feel he is back on track.

It’s an overall well-balanced profile that has come into shape, and Mazeika is on the brink of being a contributor at the major league level. He will await his chance at Triple-A Syracuse, barring injury.

24. Joander Suarez, RHP

B/T: R/R  Age: 21 (2/27/2000)

Height: 6’3″  Weight: 181 lbs

Acquired: International Free Agent (Venezuela, 2018) $10K

ETA: 2024  Previous Rank: N/A

2020 Stats: N/A

2019 Stats: (GCL) W-L 1-0, ERA 1.79, 40.1 INN, 27 H, 16 BB, 47 K, 1.07 WHIP

There are some prospects that come with big pedigree, either from abroad or through the amateur draft. Joander Suarez lacks the hype of a big bonus or being a high draft pick, signing with the Mets a couple of years ago for only $10,000. But what Suarez lacks in hype, he’s been making up for in buzz.

Suarez’s name began to pop up after an eye-opening jaunt through the Gulf Coast League as a 19-year-old in 2019. Striking out 10.5 batters per nine innings there against age appropriate competition, Suarez has drawn praise from scouts for both physical projectability and current raw stuff, which according to MLB Pipeline, already took a leap during 2020 Fall instructs.

With an ideal 6-foot-3 pitcher’s frame that has ample room to add muscle, Suarez’s velocity is anticipated to creep even higher than the already low 90’s velocity that he showed during the 2019 season. Already able to touch 95 on the gun, Suarez’s fastball has solid spin for its current velocity band at 2350 rpm, according to Fangraphs’ The BOARD. Suarez also appears to have an exciting off-speed repertoire. FanGraphs projects his “two-plane slider” as a plus pitch, while MLB Pipeline likes his ability to turn over a good changeup. Like with most young pitchers at his experience level, the key driver will be how well Suarez learns to command his budding arsenal of pitches.

Joander Suarez will be one of a handful of exciting young pitchers on our list to get their first taste of full season ball this year, likely at Low-A St. Lucie. His name is definitely one to watch.

23. Sam McWilliams, RHP

B/T: R/R  Age: 25 (9/4/1995)

Height: 6’7″  Weight: 230 lbs

Acquired: Signed as Free Agent (11/20/2020) Originally drafted Round 8, 2014 (PHI)

ETA: 2021  Previous Rank: N/A

2020 Stats: N/A

2019 Stats: (Double-A, Triple-A Rays’ affiliates) W-L 7-9, ERA 4.10, 131.2 INN, 152 H, 47 BB, 109 K, 1.51 WHIP

Sam McWilliams joined the Mets organization in the Fall of 2020, as one of the Steve Cohen Mets’ very first acquisitions, signing a major league deal for $750,000, despite never having thrown a pitch at the big league level. Why was Sandy Alderson in such haste to sign the five-year career minor league journeyman?

Well, it turns out, McWilliams may no longer be the pitcher he was for the last five years. And that reportedly had McWilliams on the radar of about half of the league.

McWilliams’ towering and imposing physical mound presence (he even has those Thor-esque blond locks spilling out the back of his cap) has generally not been matched by his stuff. He traditionally threw both a two-seam and a four-seam fastball, sitting low to mid 90’s, a slider that flashes plus, but no real changeup to speak of.

Though McWilliams last season pitching for the Rays’ Double-A and Triple-A affiliates in 2019 saw mixed success (he thrived in the former but struggled after his promotion), he did so with an uninspiring seven strikeouts per nine innings. To McWilliams’ credit, he sought to make a change.

McWilliams spent last winter, spring and his ensuing time at the Rays’ alternate site overhauling his fastball. He scrapped his two seam sinker, and got comfortable getting more behind his four seamer, eliminating any cutting action, in the goal of creating more ride through the zone. The intent was clear. It was time to start missing more bats.

McWilliams still features his high-spin slider as the complement to his new fastball. Because of his 6-foot-7 stature, McWilliams creates steep angle on his pitches, which generally isn’t favorable when trying to miss bats up in the zone with heat. The Mets’ best bet for McWilliams, and early indications are the Mets will do this, might be to see if airing it out in short stints out of the bullpen can help him sustain an uptick in velocity. If McWilliams could live 95 mph and up, he could soon be the weapon Alderson’s pro scouts were envisioning.

While he is part of the mix to be part of Luis Rojas‘ opening day bullpen, the most likely scenario has McWilliams starting his 2021 season pitching in Triple-A Syracuse.

22. Daison Acosta, RHP

B/T: R/R Age: 22 (8/24/1998)

Height: 6’2″  Weight: 160 lbs

Acquired: International Free Agent (7/2016) $70K

ETA: 2022  Previous Rank: 25

2020 Stats:  N/A

2019 Stats (Brooklyn, Columbia): 3.06 ERA 1.28 WHIP, 4.1 BB/9, 9.4 K/9, 3.72 FI

With no 2020 minor league season, it remains to be seen whether Daison Acosta is going to take that next leap as an athlete and as a pitcher. While seeing decent statistical success in 2019 against age appropriate competition, Acosta’s ultimate role and ceiling remains a bit of an unknown. The last we saw Acosta, he had still not yet filled out his frame, but was still reaching back for 95 mph on his high-spin fastball at times. It will be interesting to see whether Acosta was able to focus on strength training during the hiatus, as being able to push that velocity band even higher into the mid to upper 90’s would cement the rest of the profile.

Acosta’s relatively clean, athletic delivery features a long-arm action, working from a high 3/4 slot, getting him solid depth on his breaking ball. It is a very comfortable look for hitters as far as release height and approach angle, so in addition to optimizing the velocity that he can coax out of his frame, Acosta will also need to harness better command, improving on his 2019 4.1/9 walk rate. One popular adjustment many teams are encouraging upon their pitchers is to adopt a shorter arm swing, which in Acosta’s case, could potentially afford him both added deception and improved command.

We can expect Acosta to begin his 2021 season at High-A Brooklyn, where it will be fascinating to get a more current look. Video Link

21. Adrian Hernandez, OF

B/T: R/R Age: 20 (2/8/2001)

Height: 5’9″ Weight: 210 lbs

Acquired: International Free Agent (7/2017) $1.5 Million

ETA: 2024  Previous Rank:  17

2020 Stats: N/A

2019 Stats: (GCL) 4 games: 286/.375/.643, 2 2B, HR, RBI, 2 SB, CS

The lost 2020 minor league season was a gut punch for most minor leaguers, but perhaps especially those in the bucket to which Adrian Hernandez belongs. After the Mets signed Hernandez in 2017 at the age of 16 for a seven-figure bonus, there were high hopes and excitement to see how his bundle of raw tools could be developed.

Fast forward three and a half years later, and Hernandez has lost significant development time, first due to a torn hamstring that cost him most of his 2019 season, and then the pandemic in 2020.

The last we saw Hernandez, he had a fine statistical debut stat-line in the DSL in 2018, to the tune of a .736 OPS. Perhaps more important are his impressive exit velocities, sourced by FanGraphs, from that season. With an average exit velocity (EV) of 90 mph and a max EV of 104 mph off the bat, Hernandez boasts raw power that is already major league average.

Hernandez generates that power from easily plus bat speed, endowed by a very mature, muscular, but compact frame. His short levers should enable him to catch up with premium velocity all over the strike zone. While his approach is very raw, Hernandez really needs to see more professional pitching before we can evaluate how well he can make adjustments.

Defensively, Hernandez has the arm strength and explosive speed to play a good right field should he outgrow his initial projection to perhaps stay in center field. Look for him to start his 2021 receiving instruction on the St. Lucie backfields and eventually rekindle his very brief 2019 success in the Gulf Coast League.