Photo Credit: Ed Delany
Much like the Mets Major League roster, the Mets farm system had more of their fair share of injuries and players struggling to produce to the levels we anticipated they would heading into the 2017 season. By no means should this be used as a reason to believe those prospects will not reach their full potential. Instead, there are many reasons to believe those players could comeback and be better than ever in 2018.
To that end, our staff has selected the player they believe will be the Mets Minor League Comeback Player of the Year:
Mathew Brownstein – RHP Justin Dunn
After being drafted by the Mets 19th overall in the 2016 MLB Draft out of Boston College, Dunn quickly demonstrated his promise early on for the Brooklyn Cyclones posting a 1.50 ERA over 11 games (8 starts) averaging 10.5 strikeouts-per-nine. His 2017 season was a different story.
Dunn got off to a rocky start to begin the year with High-A St. Lucie, as he posted a 6.89 ERA over his first seven starts, allowing almost as many walks (15) as he had strikeouts (19). After his May 11th start, Dunn was moved to the bullpen where he made three appearances with considerably better results. Over those 11 appearances Dunn pitched 11 innings, allowing only one run on four hits with nine strikeouts, holding the opposition to a .343 OPS. Dunn returned to the rotation with mixed results, and ended the season on the disabled list after his August 3 start. A few issues that Dunn needs to address are his control, as he allowed 4.5 BB/9 and posted a high WHIP of 1.563, and learning how to get out left-handed hitters. In 151 plate appearances in ’17, Dunn allowed LHH to post a slash of .345/.464/.462 against him, compared to .239/.308/.355 against right-handed hitters. It appears the Mets will continue to utilize the 22-year-old Dunn as a starter, though, if he continues to struggle facing batters more than twice through the order, they could look to convert him to the pen, where he fared much better in limited action last season.
Ernest Dove – INF Jeff McNeil
McNeil is my favorite prospect from the 2015 season, but he has since gone on to play in a total of 51 games the past two years due to injuries and surgery. This year, he will enter camp 100% healthy next month. I look forward to seeing Jeff use his versatility to play all over the infield and perhaps get another look in the outfield as well. I expect a strong season offensively and will keep an eye on his previous goals set prior to the 2017 season of adding power to his game.
Joseph Hill – 2B Gavin Cecchini
Cecchini’s gotten used to his new position and has played much more solid defense at second. Now that he’s gotten a taste of Major League pitching, I think he will focus on his offense in Las Vegas next year where he could return or possibly even surpass the level he hit at from 2015-2016. The 2012 first round pick still has the tools to become a good player. He now just needs consistent at-bats in Triple-A to bounce back from last year.
Corne Hogeveen – RHP Corey Taylor
Taylor had a great 2016 season were he pitched to a 1.87 ERA in 53 innings for St. Lucie, and he really impressed in the Arizona Fall League were he pitched to a 1.93 ERA. In 2017, Taylor struggled in Binghamton positing an ERA higher than 2.00 (3.61) for this first time in his career. However, he finished the season strong with a 2.70 August ERA. After the With his fastball slider combination, I still like him as a reliever who can help in the near future.
Ted Klein – 3B Blake Tiberi
Blake Tiberi, I feel he’s an underrated bat, and if his swing is feeling better, I’m going to be confident in him. He was a late-bloomer in college, and I have a feeling this is the year he can get some wood on the ball. Also believe he has some sneaky power he’s been itching to show off.
Photo Credit – MARK SULEYMANOV
Matt Mancuso – CF Desmond Lindsay
After being drafted in the 2nd round in 2015, Lindsay has overcome multiple injuries to post a .253/.366/.404 slash-line with 182 total bases over the past three seasons. Although those are tolerable numbers, he has failed to capitalize on his tremendous skillset. He has an impressive hit tool and is projected to have above-average power. Although he doesn’t have much experience playing the outfield, his dynamic speed allows him to cover a lot of ground. Lindsay has a chance to become a quality major-leaguer if he can stay healthy.
Sam Lebowitz – CF Desmond Lindsay
There’s a reason why Desmond Lindsay was selected just outside the first round in 2015. The right-handed hitting center fielder has displayed flashes of five-tool potential, but Lindsay’s primary issue has been health. He’s been limited to just 137 career games across his three seasons. If Lindsay is able to stay on the field and find the offensive tools that we’ve seen glimpses, there is no doubt he will be the comeback player of the year in 2018.
Mets Daddy – LHP Anthony Kay
The Mets have long wanted Kay having twice drafted him. There is good reason for that with him being able to get his fastball into the mid-90s and his combining it with a terrific change-up. Given how the Mets organization has had success helping pitchers develop breaking pitches, at the time he was drafted, Kay looked like he was going to be a fast riser through the Mets system. However, that hasn’t happened with him losing his first two seasons to Tommy John surgery, which many believe can be attributed to how he was used in college. With Kay now fully healthy, he should be able to get back to being the pitcher Mets thought he would be when he was drafted.
By and large, our staff is of the belief Lindsay will be the player who will be the comeback player of the year. Do you agree? We look forward to your opinions in the comment section.
So many guys with so much to prove this year. Should be a fun year ahead.
I would pick Wuilmer Becerra. He had so much potential left that was damaged by injury. Hopefully he can come back to his form.
I’ve been watching Becerra down here in person for what seems like forever with the St. Lucie Mets.
I’ve seen him have good games. I’ve seen hard hit balls but unfortunately not any HR power. He also strikes out a lot and you can see frustrations from the stands.
Defensively corner outfield is his only chance. He just didn’t look comfortable at all to me at first base.
Regardless I’m still rooting for him.
This site has, IMO, mislabeled and poorly evaluated Phillip Evans’ 2017 season as a “bad” one. What you’ve called a “bad” season was really a mediocre first half (.248/.310/.348) coupled with a very strong second half (328/.387/.527 in AAA, .303/.394/.364 in the majors). But since you have called it a bad season, I’ll list him as a “comeback” candidate.
I’ll go with Luis Carpio. He was soaring up prospect lists before his shoulder surgery and is still only entering his age 21 season. A bounceback from Gregory Guerrero would be aWesome too.
Surprised not to see Becerra anywhere
Why surprised? He never really put it all together on offense and excelled at any point. He’s never hit for power, and has never really figured things out defensively. Most players are never as good as the early hype suggests, and he’s just part of that crowd.
So apparently, you’re all about the prospect lists. At the end of the day, those lists mean painfully little and a lot more players fall short of expectations than meet them. Most fans put way too much stock in lists because they don’t understand the basis on which those lists or the projections were made. These projections put almost all of the weight on the player’s ceiling or maximum potential. While the scouting reports will mention the short-comings that may prevent a player from reaching his ceiling, the final evaluation disregards those short-comings almost entirely. I encourage you to never, ever forget that only 6% of all players signed or drafted ever reach the majors at all, and a good number of those wind up being 4A players – Eric Campbell and Danny Muno types who shuttle back and forth between AAA and the majors for a couple of years before disappearing for good.
Guerrero’s never been anywhere good to start with. So if he performs well this year, it would not be a bounce “back” – it would just be a bounce.
He’s been a disappointment at the plate, and weak – even poor – in the field since the day he was drafted.
Carpio’s an interesting pick. On defense, a big part of his value was in his defense. If he can no longer play shortstop because of the shoulder, then that value is diminished. Maybe another year sees him get back more of his shoulder strength and allows him to return to SS on a regular basis, but thats just speculation. Also worth noting is that his range factor, at short, which looked excellent in DSL, was nothing special in either Kingsport before the surgery, or in Columbia last year. the good news is that his RF didn’t diminish between Kingsport and Columbia. The bad news is that his error rate went up a lot. Maybe that had something to do with the shoulder strength, maybe not. It’ll be interesting to see what happens this year.
I’m not sure what basis there is for suggesting a Gavin Cecchini comeback. Even when a theory sounds nice, it still needs to be vetted and backed up by some fact. The idea that the position change affected Cecchini’s hitting just such a theory:
nice-sounding, but unsubstantiated. A good look at his offensive numbers from 2016 and 2017 show that they are remarkably similar:
2016: 446 ABs, 27 doubles, 2 triples, 8 HRs, 48 BB, 55 K.
2017: 453 ABs, 27 doubles, 3 triples, 6 HRs, 40 BB, 61 K.
The only meaningful things that changed were his BABIP (which went from an abberrantly high .357 in 2016 to a fairly normal .297 in 2017), and his batting average, which fell by a similar degree, clearly as a result of the lower BABIP.
The fact that his extra-base hit power was almost exactly the same in both years suggest that Cecchini was hitting the ball just as hard and with the same authority in both years and leaves luck as the only factor in his BABIP dropping.
In a nutshell, Gavin Cecchini did almost exactly the same thing at the plate in 2017 as he had done in 2016. The only thing that changed was his luck went from very good to average.
bc of the tools alone
What tools? Power, no. Speed, no. Arm, no. The tools were always questioned. Some said they were there but would need a lot of polish, and some said they were so-so or not that good, but he might make it with a lot of hard work.
Um he didn’t quite walk out of a desk job and onto a ballfield. Not quite how it works, sorry. If you do not underdtand then you have more reading to do than anything else let alone commenting. Context is key.
Dignify the work of the gentlemen above. Usually someone steps outside the box but if they forgot him hey it happens but it is not like there is no measure of where his selection can come from.
I didn’t say that his inclusion was out of the question. But his omission is by no means any kind of surprise, either.
If your opinion differs from mine, then by all means go right ahead and express it. But before you make it personal by attacking me or my knowledge and understanding, try offering up a few real facts for your position. “because of the tools alone” doesn’t cut it. Because his tools have always been regarded as a mixed bag and have come with some question marks. If you’re not aware of that, then perhaps it is you who can do with some more understanding, reading, and context. The media takes the good stuff from the scouting reports and feeds it up out of context for fan consumption because thats what the fans eat up. But it doesn’t represent the entire scouting report.
More context: Once a player gets to the upper minors, tools alone will not be enough to succeed, unless the player’s tool set is absolutely outstanding, which is not the case with Becerra.
Actually yeah tools alone does cut it and qualify. If you’re internalizing it as a personal attack that’s on you but hey to each their own…. like I said there are more than enough scouting reports and write ups to back up his profile as a prototypical RFer esp when pop is such a valued asset in the modern game… it’s not personal. And yes they do provide the negatives like the long swing so no it’s not all roses. That plus the last line… “Usually someone steps outside the box but if they forgot him hey it happens but it is not like there is no measure of where his selection can come from” is more than enough context, ***onus on understanding not agreement***
“There are more than enough scouting reports and write ups to back up his profile as a prototypical RFer esp when pop is such a valued asset in the modern game.”.. What pop? His power is just one of several tools that were questioned or regarded as a mixed bag right from the start. And to date, he’s never shown any real pop. His career high is 9 HRs.
Everything is a question esp the higher they go. Alonso is viewed as a middle of the run producer but what one opines to be a meager 18 HRs mostly in SLU wouldn’t be enough alone to dispell that, tools. Onus on understanding not agreement…. plus again… “Usually someone steps outside the box but if they forgot him hey it happens but it is not like there is no measure of where his selection can come from.”
Yeah, I’m more excited for the minors than majors this year. So much to watch.
Interesting Jayce Boyd stats ( probably just PCL effect but still) I always read that his power was really fringy. Think he’ll get the chance to play everyday at vegas this year?
Yes, probably. But there are a lot of moving parts to this equation.
At 27, he’s not really a prospect anymore. And he’s a free agent after this season. So the Mets might use him as a disposable player and give time to the more “real” prospects. That said, I think they’ll barely have 4 legitimate AAA-caliber outfielders in Vegas this year. So between injuries, DHing (which happens in about half of the games for Vegas), or a newly promoted player (like Kevin Taylor, maybe) getting off to a slow start, there’ll probably be plenty fo time to go around.
Also keep in mind that no one really plays “every day” in the minors. Even starters play only 115 to 125 games out of 140, and that includes games in which they DH. With 420 starts in the OF plus some at DH, its not hard to see 4 guys reaching close to what counts for full-time status.
Are Justin Dunn, Corey Taylor, Blake Tiberi, and Desmond Lindsay in the top 50