And we’re back for a second installment of prospects today, ranging from No. 20 to No. 16… True to my word, the notes about the scouting scale will stay right there for you all. You can check out the first post in this series right here.
The traditional scouting scale, which ranks players on a scale of 20-80 (abbreviated at times without the zero), can summarize how we feel about a player in an easy to understand format. Now, for those of you unfamiliar with the scale, you’ll see two numbers — something like 30/60, which isn’t a fraction, but rather a representation of their present status and their potential. The number on the left represents their current standing, while the number on the right shows what they could become. For a further explanation on what the numbers mean, I strongly encourage you to check out these links (Scouting for Batters and Scouting for Pitchers) which I will leave on each post going ahead in this series. With that being said, I really hope you enjoy our work going ahead, and any and all questions and comments are appreciated.
20. Hansel Robles, RHP
Height: 5’11”
Weight: 185
Age: 22
Bats/Throws: Right/Right
Fastball: 55/60 Change-Up: 50/50 Curveball/Slider: 40/50 Control: 55/60 Makeup: 50/50
Signed as an undrafted free agent in August of 2008, Hansel Robles has found success across basically every level of MiLB baseball he has encountered. Of course, last year demonstrated the peak of that success, with a 1.11 ERA across 72.2 innings in the New York Penn League. Last year, Hansel Robles did not allow a run over his last 36 innings — and no matter what level of baseball you play at, that is not a number you can sneeze at. Robles demonstrated great command over his pitches and mixed them effectively to create the presence of an ace on the mound.
Most people, however, believe that Robles is destined for the bullpen for a multitude of reasons — like his height and his inconsistent secondary pitches. Robles has a plus fastball that tops out at 94 MPH but sits in the low nineties. His change-up is average, but the difference in speed gets it by as a good pitch, as it normally comes in around 82 MPH. His third pitch, a slider and occasional curveball type pitch, is going to define his true role. So far this year, Robles has worked his way back from an injury to join the St. Lucie rotation, where he has pitched to a 3.46 ERA in 39.0 innings. He has served up five home runs after allowing none in 2012. Yep…none.
Outlook: It might be because I fell in love with his numbers in Brooklyn and really came to appreciate his talent, but I find it increasingly harder to count Hansel Robles out as a bullpen arm. As always, I say you give him the longest length of leash possible as a starter and work from there. If he can stick it out as a starter, his ceiling is likely somewhere around mid-to-back rotation if both his secondary pitches turn out to be average. His body does not project out to be a starter, however, so I might just be grasping at straws — but my final verdict is not to count this guy out.
19. Vicente Lupo, OF
Weight: 180
Age: 19
Bats/Throws: Right/Right
Hit: 50/65 Power: 55/65 Arm: 45/50 Field: 40/50 Speed: 40/50
First off, remember the fact that he is just 19 years old, so you’re going to be hearing his name a lot in the coming years — similar to how we kept hearing about Wilmer Flores throughout the years. Lupo has the potential to pan out into quite the hitter, and his bat will meet the expectations that we normally set for power-hitting corner outfielders. He has a great eye at the plate, which does him nothing but good at such a young age, and led him to a .500 OBP last season in the DSL.
Currently, Lupo is sticking it out in the GCL with fellow young prospect Dominic Smith. He’s batting just .167 to begin the year through the first 42 at-bats, but he has walked enough to give himself an OBP of .271 even with that batting average. He’s been accused of swinging for the fences a little too much, which is not uncommon for a hitter of his age with raw power, and perhaps it’s throwing him off early. His 1.108 OPS in the DSL last year left a lot of people hoping for more and anxious to see what becomes of him.
Outlook: There are likely no gold gloves in Lupo’s future, but there could be a .270 season with 25 home runs and 35 doubles. The young slugger won’t be anywhere near the MLB level for years to come, which also implies that he hasn’t faced serious enough competition for us to be definitive in our analysis yet. However, if you ask me if Lupo has the tools to succeed, the answer would be a resounding yes, so we’ll see how this young man grows.
18. Matthew Bowman, RHP
Height: 6’0”
Weight: 165
Age: 22
Bats/Throws: Right/Right
Fastball: 50/50 Curveball: 40/50 Slider: 45/55 Changeup 50/60 Fielding 60/60 Control: 50/60
Anyone who will watch last year’s 13th rounder out of Princeton, Matt Bowman, will automatically think of Tim Lincecum. He has modeled his complete delivery after the former Giants’ ace, and his height (listed at 6 feet, but likely shorter) and weight are both undersized for a prototype pitcher’s build. Yet, Princeton’s Lincecum, (whose nickname is under my copyright by the way), uses his build effectively to create enough torque to hit 92 miles per hour on occasion. The Mets have even noted that Bowman even reportedly touched 95 miles per hour in the pre draft workout, but usually works in the 88 to 92 MPH range. In addition to his fastball, Bowman throws an average curveball that was effective in college, a slider with inconsistency, but nasty when spot on, and a changeup, which comes in more than 10 miles per hour slower. His fielding is above average, because at Princeton, he used to moonlight as a shortstop. His control is also above average; evident by the 21 walks he has given up in 123.2 innings since going pro.
Bowman has doing a terrific job this year of just making everything look even easier for an Ivy League kid, with 10 starts already in Hi-A St. Lucie after being promoted on May 7th from Savannah after making 5 starts. In these 15 starts, Bowman is boasting a 2.67 ERA, going 94.1 innings, striking out 92 and walking only 18. Mind you, he had more strikeouts per inning in in Hi-A than Low-A.
Outlook: As awesome as Bowman seems, having impeccable control, and four average pitches to work with, it is most likely that he will become a reliever. His frame and delivery have had a history of losing velocity and effectiveness with overuse with a sample size from Tim Lincecum, the player he has modeled his delivery after. It makes more sense to gain more velocity from Bowman out of the pen, possibly being an effective set up man, or at worst, a middle reliever. If Bowman was a starter, he would project as a #3 starter at best, but more likely be at the back end of the rotation. His ETA to the majors should be in the next couple of years, especially since he has just dominated so far. (Teddy K.)
17. Jacob deGrom, RHP
Height: 6’4”
Weight: 185
Age: 25
Bats/Throws: Left/Right
Fastball: 60/65 Slider: 50/60 Change-up: 45/50 Control: 45/55 Makeup: 50/55
So a young man goes through Tommy John Surgery and comes out throwing in the high nineties and complements that with a slider with nice late bite. How often does that happen? I don’t know, but I’m glad it happened with Jacob deGrom. I’m part of the camp that feels like deGrom doesn’t get enough credit for how talented he is — and how successful he could become. He got a little extra push this year with the call-up to Las Vegas and is showing that he can get by with his current pitches.
The young flamethrower has seen time in St. Lucie, Binghamton, and Las Vegas this season — and is currently finding his niche in Triple-A. He has a 3.03 ERA in 29.2 innings and is holding hitters to a .268 average against. Considering the surgery and his notable great work ethic, deGrom presents as one of those guys who you can’t help but root for.
Outlook: The thing with most starters is that I usually talk about them developing a third pitch, refining it, or something of that nature…but not with deGrom. He already has the natural stuff to succeed in the Show, and he can live with his fastball if his secondary pitches stay as effective as they are right now. The slider has room to improve — which is great, considering that it’s already pretty worthwhile as a complement to the fastball. That being said, if deGrom can control his arsenal and become more comfortable throwing his off-speed pitches in more situations, I do see the rotation as deGrom’s future.
16. Steven Matz, LHP
Height: 6’2”
Weight: 192
Age: 22
Bats/Throws: Right/Left
Fastball: 60/60 Curveball: 40/60 Changeup: 30/40 Control: 40/50
Matz has bounced back in a big way in his first full season back from Tommy John surgery. He currently sports a 2.28 ERA through 71 innings in Low-A Savannah. He’s also striking out more than a batter per inning (9.5 K/9) while limiting his walks (2.92 BB/9). The Mets have recently started to let Matz work deeper into games, as he’s gone eight and seven innings in his last two starts respectively.
On the mound Matz attacks hitters with a mid-90’s fastball that has late life which he uses effectively in the upper part of the strikezone. The key for Matz will be his breaking pitch, which was considered his best pitch by scouts when the Mets drafted him 72nd overall out of high school. After scrapping the pitch early in the season to focus on fastball command, it’s once again becoming a weapon and a potential out-pitch at the major league level. He rounds out his arsenal with a fringey changeup that he uses to neutralize righties.
Outlook: It’s great to see that Steven’s command/control has started to return after struggling with walks last season. All that is to be expected though. I really like his compact delivery– not much wasted motion. His fastball jumps out at you. It’s nice to have a guy throwing with that type of velocity as a southpaw. If he can learn to harness his curveball, and if his change develops into a usable pitch, I think Matz can develop into a solid back-end starter. Maybe more. (Kirk C.)
MMN Mid-Season Top 25 Prospects
16. Steven Matz
17. Jacob deGrom
18. Matthew Bowman
19. Vicente Lupo
20. Hansel Robles
22. L.J. Mazzilli
23.Luis Mateo
24. Amed Rosario
25. Ivan Wilson
(Photo Credit for deGrom/Robles: Gordon Donovan)
Agreed on most. But Matz seems like a very worthy candidate for the # 9 to # 12 range imho. He has re- emerged as a legit LHSP prospect. The stuff has frontline or closer potential. Sure, health will always be a concern. But he has been healthy & strong this year.
I assume Jack Leathersich will pop up on this list shortly. But I’d at least suggest swapping spots with Matz based on ceiling & floor.
I don’t know if its because they are so talented and therefore worthy of paying attention or if its the availability of more regular and in depth coverage, or some combination of the two, but I think its awesome that I can look at a list like this and off the top of my head name the 15 guys who are coming next, and maybe even do an OK job of guessing the order.
I think the lack of a track record is the only thing keeping him down on the list. This isn’t necessarily a “Most talented” list. Other things such as health concerns and proximity to majors have to be factored in.
For everything Matz is as a talent, he’s still a 22-year old pitching in low-A ball with 100 professional innings under his belt.
I´ll give it a shot:
# 15 LHP Jack Leathersich
# 14 1b Jayce Boyd
# 13 RHP Corey Mazzoni
# 12 SS Gavin Cecchini
# 11 RHP Gabriel Ynoa
# 10 RHP Domingo Tapia
# 9 C Kevin Plawecki
# 8 RHP Michael Fulmer
# 7 OF Brandon Nimmo
# 6 1b Dominic Smith
# 5 OF Cesar Puello
# 4 2b Wilmer Flores
# 3 RHP Rafael Montero
# 2 C Travis d´Arnaud
# 1 RHP Noah Syndergaard
HM beyond Top 25:
RHP Logan Verrett, RHP Rainy Lara, OF Corey Vaughn, OF Matt Den Dekker and OF Wuilmer Becerra
Last time, I gave you a hard time for too much Mazzilli love. Now, it’s too little Matz love. He is THE LHSP in the entire system right now. With all the health concerns, lack of innings, and all of a sudden age creeping up on him…he still profiles as the heir to John Niese in the Mets rotation. A lefty that throws mid 90s, if he can develop secondary pitches is a legit frontline starter. And in our rotation where he’d most like be behind Harvey, Wheeler, and possibly Niese, Syndergaard, or Montero (if they’re still here), he could be a stud for us.
Other intriguing name among this five is deGrom. Meteoric rise would be an understatement. He is working on earning himself a September call-up and a possible shot at the rotation or bullpen next Spring. Very awesome to see how far he’s come, how quickly it’s happened, and how much progress can still be made with a guy who’s doing quite well already in Vegas.
With the low ERA and strike outs, does anyone know if there are even talks on promoting Matz to St. Lucie, or is the plan to keep him in Savannah all season?
He wasn’t as successful early in the year, but he could see a late-season promotion. The Mets have done that before with pitchers, where they promote them for 2-3 starts down the stretch.