Brace yourselves! Today marks the beginning of the MMN Mid-Season Top 25 Prospects series, where we update our Top 25 from the off-season based on performance to date. Some new names have burst onto the scene like Matthew Bowman — and older names like Cesar Puello have finally found their niche, and our rankings have shifted to reflect that.
The player profiles for the Top 25 will be done by myself, Kirk Cahill, and Teddy Klein. You can expect every profile to include a little background information, an outlook for the future, and something a little new here for prospect lists at MMO or MMN — the scouting scale.
The traditional scouting scale, which ranks players on a scale of 20-80 (abbreviated at times without the zero), can summarize how we feel about a player in an easy to understand format. Now, for those of you unfamiliar with the scale, you’ll see two numbers — something like 30/60, which isn’t a fraction, but rather a representation of their present status and their potential. The number on the left represents their current standing, while the number on the right shows what they could become. For a further explanation on what the numbers mean, I strongly encourage you to check out these links (Scouting for Batters and Scouting for Pitchers) which I will leave on each post going ahead in this series. With that being said, I really hope you enjoy our work going ahead, and any and all questions and comments are appreciated.
25. Ivan Wilson, CF
Height: 6’3”
Weight: 220
Age: 18
Bats/Throws: Right/Right
Hit: 30/55 Power: 40/60 Arm: 50/60 Field: 45/60 Speed: 55/65
Ivan Wilson was one of the favorite picks of Teddy and myself coming out of the 2013 Draft — and it is not difficult to see why. We often joke that passing on Austin Wilson was acceptable because we got the “better” Wilson at the end of the day. Wilson immediately catches your attention with his ginormous frame at 18 years old, as he has been gifted with incredible genetics. He is one of, if not, the most athletic player grabbed in the ’13 draft for the Mets and is currently playing CF for the GCL team.
He already possesses a healthy amount of raw power and an above average arm, while he was also fast enough to play wide receiver for his High School as well. Wilson has the potential to play as an above-average regular at any outfield position and he shows flashes of five-tool potential. He is currently batting .242, 8-for-33, with four stolen bases already.
Outlook: Wilson is raw and will take some time to mold into a star — similar to what was said about Brandon Nimmo when he was drafted. This might sound insane, but there’s a part of me that likes Ivan Wilson’s skill set more than I do that of Nimmo in some ways, even though it’ll take years to see the end result of either player. It is conceivable he will play out better as a corner outfielder as time passes, but that doesn’t diminish his overall value as much. His arm and natural speed should play very well at a corner spot, and his offensive talents will only look more impressive there. I could easily see that being the likely scenario, along with Wilson defining himself as a 20 HR/15 SB player — and that wouldn’t even be touching his full potential.
24. German Amed Rosario, SS
Height: 6’2”
Weight: 170
Age: 17
Bats/Throws: Right/Right
Hit: 30/60 Power: 40/60 Arm: 60/60 Field: 50/60 Speed: 40/50
Rosario is a skinny kid, especially for a possible power hitter, but he is only 17 years old. He has a lot of time left to grow and fill out. As I watched his fielding, I noticed that he was more than capable of making routine plays, which is great at his age. Of course, I caution you to remember that International Free Agents are a roll of the dice — sometimes even more so than the draft — so don’t get too excited yet, considering Rosario’s ETA might not be till around 2017. Rosario was notoriously jumped to Kingsport this year and is struggling a little there, with a .210 average in 62 at-bats. He has one double, a triple, and a home run with no successful stolen bases.
Outlook: Small as he is, his swing already generates power, and will that will only get better as he gets older. As he develops, his fielding will become better as well. A world of projection becomes involved when you talk about a player of Rosario’s status, but based on my own experience watching him, it is not ridiculous to place the moniker of “shortstop of the future” on him. His low ranking coincides with his lack of experience at this point, but this could easily change in a hurry. (Teddy K.)
23. Luis Mateo, RHP
Height: 6’3”
Weight: 185
Age: 23
Bats/Throws: Right/Right
Fastball: 55/65 Slider: 60/70 Change-up: 40/50 Control: 50/50 Makeup: 45/55
Luis Mateo finds himself much lower on our prospect list than he was before (#10) solely because of his Tommy John Surgery. We’ll have to wait to see how he rebounds from that to give a real assessment of where Mateo stands going forward, but pre-surgery, he was definitely one of my favorite prospects to keep tabs on. He had the best slider in the system, complimented by an above average fastball. The change-up was in need of development to define him as a top flight starter, as it worked as a great contrast to his two fastballs (two-seam with sink and straight explosive four-seam). Last year, he owned rates of 0.1 HR/9, 0.7 BB/9 and 11.4 K/9. Mateo only appeared in three games for St. Lucie this season.
Outlook: My only real quibble with Mateo in the off-season when I wrote him up was his low release point, which might have served as a hindrance to his change-up. Unfortunately, now we’ve got the effects of the TJS to worry about… It would be difficult to determine his future without seeing him pitch again. I’ll keep my hopes up and say that he still has a shot at becoming a successful starting pitcher.
22. L.J. Mazzilli, 2B
Height: 6’0”
Weight: 190
Age: 22
Bats/Throws: Right/Right
Hit: 45/55 Power: 30/40 Arm: 40/50 Field: 40/50 Speed: 40/50
Our 4th round pick in the 2013 Draft, L.J. Mazzilli, is the son of former Mets star Lee Mazzilli. This was no show of nepotism, however, as the younger Mazzilli has the potential to turn into a solid second basemen down the line. First off, getting this out of the way, Mazzilli does not have the tools to move over to shortstop on a regular basis, so he’ll probably stick it out at second base as an average defender if he pans out. His selling point, however, is his relatively potent bat for his position and his baseball background. Mazzilli has a high baseball IQ, a great work ethic, and a projectable body for second base. In his final season for Connecticut, he owned a .364/.419/.534 slash line and struck out just 25 times in 247 at-bats, representative of his ability to make contact with consistency.
Outlook: There are a few players in the system with a similar skill set to Mazzilli, like Phillip Evans, Daniel Muno, or even T.J. Rivera — and one of them is bound to pan out. Mazzilli might be the likeliest of the group to do just that, and turn into that .270 – .280 hitter with 10- 15 home runs and stolen bases. I give Mazzilli the edge up because of his father’s tutelage and his baseball IQ. At worst, he could turn into an MLB-level backup with the ability to step in for injuries and such. As far as 4th round picks go, this was a solid one.
21. Aderlin Rodriguez, 3B/1B
Height: 6’3”
Weight: 210
Age: 21
Bats/Throws: Right/Right
Hit: 30/40 Power: 70/70 Arm: 60/60 Field: 30/40 Speed: 40/30
Aderlin has spent the entire season thus far at the Mets High-A affiliate in St. Lucie, providing mixed results. He’s batted .259 with 9 home runs in 62 games. Rodriguez continues to improve upon turning that raw power that you see in batting practice into game power. He’s also continued to cut down on his strikeouts, whiffing in just 16.2% of his at-bats. These are encouraging signs from a young player. However, Rodriguez wouldn’t be this far down the list if he didn’t have his share of flaws. Aderlin current sports a .294 OBP; walking in just 4.2% of his plate appearances. That’s a number that’s going to have to improve in order to be taken seriously as a prospect. His defense, as always, continues to be a problem as well. There was a time when scouts thought Rodriguez could stick at third, but would always be a liability. Due to his big frame that continues to fill in and a general lack of improvement, he’s seen an ample amount of playing time at first base this season.
Aderlin also tends to be incredibly streaky. He started of the season by hitting .186/.206/.351 with three home runs in April. It looked like he wouldn’t even make this list. He then followed that up with a May in which he hit .343/.372/.581 with six home runs and looked like a guy who could make the biggest jump on this midseason list. A player like that can be frustrating and difficult to evaluate as a prospect.
Outlook: Rodriguez is in his second season at St. Lucie, and you’d really like to see more progress than he’s shown. He has to find consistency at the plate, and improve his understanding of the strike zone in order to allow his power to play up. Although he’s just 21, what happens in the rest of this season could make or break his prospect status. There are times when he flashes the potential to be a starting caliber corner infielder with tremendous power at the next level. Other times he looks like a slow-footed first basemen without the hit tool to allow his power to show up in games. (Kirk C.)
MMN Mid-Season Top 25 Prospects
22. L.J. Mazzilli
23. Luis Mateo
24. Amed Rosario
25. Ivan Wilson
Some fun names.
Once again, there seem to be 35 to 40 valid candidates for the list. A lot depends on personal preference. For example, it’s nearly impossible to accurately compare a raw 17 year-old prospect like Rosario with an advanced prospect with a limited ceiling lime Verrett. The latter probably has a much better chance at a major league career, the former is more likely to make a lasting impact.
I tend to go back and forth, though I have a pretty certain idea about who the Top 14 or 15 prospects are. The 15 through 35 seem very close and almost interchangeable…
” This might sound insane, but there’s a part of me that likes Ivan Wilson’s skill set more than I do that of Nimmo in some ways”
Nothing insane about that at all….better tools coming in and more experience playing. Wilson actually had a baseball team in his highschool
So you agree? lol
I think they’re just totally different prospects. Wilson is definitely more sexy. He’s raw and a guy you can really dream on. Whereas Nimmo is sorta limited. Wilson has all the tools to be an above average regular, but for now I’ll still take Nimmo because of the command he seems to have of the strikezone with such limited baseball experience.
Mazzilli in the top 25?? Really? Hope you guys are right but I’m not sure about that..
I like Wilson’s skill set. Good all around athlete. I think that Mazzili is a bit too high. Wilson is a better prospect in my opinion because he has a higher cieling.
I think that Mateo is reaching a scary point for a prospect where he is too old for his level. 23 is a bit too old for a guy still in high a. I hope that the tommy John strengthens him and that he is a late bloomer.
I love the raw talent of Rosario. His still has to fill out physically, but he seems to be a defensively solid shortstop with growing pop in his bat (like you said). I look forward to seeing his journey to the big leagues.
Rodriguez seems to be an all or nothing hitter. He need to advance his offensive approach in order to move up the farm system. He is still young, but I think 21 is a bit high for him.
Nice work guys. Very excited to see how the list pans out, and even more grateful for your work on this, and the site in general.
That said, I don’t think Mazzili is top 25 right now. There are too many similar guys at much higher levels. I’ll forgive you all for the legacy ranking. 🙂 The other four guys, Wilson, Rosario, Mateo, and Ad-Rod all seem to fit into the playable tool or tools, much more development and progress needed, but could be very solid MLB contributors. Of this group, I’m mostly intrigued by Rosario. With Flores getting ready to graduate to the show, I need a new 5-6 year project.