When Matt Harvey was first coming up through the Mets farm system, and he burst his way onto the scene in 2013, he began to draw comparisons to Tom Seaver. There were reasons why it was an apt comparison as Harvey was emerging as a bona fide ace, incredible stuff, and a seemingly limitless ceiling. Mostly, the comparison failed because there is only one Tom Seaver.
Overall, the Seaver comparison did work on many levels. It did give you an insight to what Harvey was as a pitcher and what his ceiling could be. It also gave Mets fans a frame of reference in which to base their opinions. Indeed, a comp of a player that is obscure or unknown to a person is little to no value. Ideally, you like to have a perfect match, but in reality, you mostly have to settle for a comp that is merely informative.
In trying to keep comps informative, it is usually best to compare prospects to players most people know. This typically means current players and/or Mets players. With that framework in mind, here are major league comps for MMN’s Top 30:
#1 Amed Rosario
Comp: Francisco Lindor
The Lindor comp works because he was seen as an elite defender with high upside at the plate. Basically, he was a high floor higher ceiling player. In the major leagues, he has been that elite defender with him winning the 2016 Gold Glove. He has also become a player with a good OBP (career .356) and some power (14 home runs per year). Now, Rosario may not have the double digit home run power in him, he still has the ability to get on base and hit for the ball in the gaps while playing elite defense at the major league level.
Comp: Freddie Freeman
If you are looking for a slick fielding first baseman who’s power was a question mark, Freeman is your comp. For most of Freeman’s career, he’s been a player that hit for a decent average, had a good OBP, and averaged roughly 30 doubles and 20 homers a season. He was a quality hitter in the lineup, but he was not the slugger you traditionally expected at first base.
In Smith’s professional career, he’s had a good average and OBP with enough power to suggest he could put up similar, if not slightly lower, power numbers than Freeman. Still, there are those who still believe Smith may very well wind up hitting for power meaning a 30 home run season like Freeman had in 2016 is not out of reach for him.
Comp: Rick Porcello
For most of Porcello’s career, he was a mid-rotation starter that primarily threw heavy sinkers to generate outs. He has typically had good control, has not generated many strikeouts, and he has pitched to contact. When things don’t break right, he’s going to allow a number of hits and have a higher ERA. When things work out well, he’s capable of a Cy Young caliber season. At this point in his career, Gsellman is a slightly harder throwing version of Porcello who will be subjected to the same ebbs and flows unless the slider becomes a plus pitch for him.
Comp: Madison Bumgarner
Now, this is high praise indeed, but there are many factors that go into this. Both pitchers throw from the 3/4 arm slot almost against their bodies. Both pitchers throw their fastball anywhere from the lower to mid 90s. Especially over the past few seasons, Bumgarner has moved towards using his curveball as a weapon over his cutter. Naturally, no one is saying Szapucki will become the next great postseason pitcher. Rather, Szapucki has a similar delivery and that he’s capable of being a very good major league pitcher who strikes out a lot of batters. Szapucki getting to the majors and/or Bumgarner’s level is going to depend on his development of the slider or possibly a cutter.
Comp: Andrew McCutchen
Like Szapucki, this is a projection based upon a similar style player and based upon what Lindsay’s talent may belie. Up until last year, McCutchen was a 20 homer run player that got on base and ran the bases extremely well. In the field, McCutchen was serviceable in center using his speed as his main defensive asset. Ideally, this is what Lindsay, a player the Mets dubbed an “offensive machine” when drafted, will become.
#6 Justin Dunn
Comp: Marcus Stroman
Aside from both pitchers being from Long Island, the pitchers have similar styles and pitches. Both pitchers use a high leg kick and primarily rely upon a mid 90s fastball with a good slider. Both pitchers have a curveball and change-up that are not on par with their other pitches. Both pitchers ceilings and further success depends upon them developing that third pitch.
Comp: Jean Segura
Segura has been a player in his major league career that has had all the tools to be an effective everyday shortstop in the major leagues. He has the range, the arm, and the baseball IQ in the field. At the plate, he has an idea of what he wants to do, has the ability to hit for power and draw walks. Still, up until this season, many believed his inability to put his tools together meant he should slide to second base and/or become a utility player. That’s where Cecchini is now. He has all the tools to be a shortstop at the major league level. However, he’s both blocked by Rosario and his inability to slow the game down to help him prevent so many errors. At the plate, he knows what he’s doing, and he has shown that he can one day hit for power, but at this point, the power isn’t there. Cecchini should figure things out at the major league level to be a good player, but he’s going to need an opportunity . . . like Segura got.
Comp: Nick Markakis
Both players can handle center, but defensively speaking, they are better suited to a corner outfield position. Both players were thought to have had promising power as prospects, but as they have progressed, the power never developed like anyone though it would. Still, they both are capable of getting on base at a good clip. They can handle themselves against left-handed pitching, but they really thrive against right-handed pitching. Both can justify a spot in a starting outfield, but on a good team may be best suited as a fourth outfielder.
Comp: Asdrubal Cabrera
Gimenez is very much in line with a younger Cabrera in that he has the athleticism and the tools to be a good defensive shortstop, but his real value is at the plate. Gimenez has a good approach at the plate, and he promises to hit for power similar to the power Cabrera has flashed in his career. The main difference between these two players is Gimenez bats left while Cabrera is a switch hitter, and Gimenez does not strike out at the rates Cabrera has at the major leagues. Still, Gimenez has the talent to produce like Cabrera has at the major league level.
#10 Tomas Nido
Comp: Francisco Cervelli
Cervelli is a nice comp for Nido because he was a catcher who is a good defensive catcher, who early on his career had a lot of offensive promise. Cervelli mostly got chances due to his strong work behind the plate, namely his pitch framing. Eventually, Cervelli developed offensively making him a complete player. Notably, this comp doesn’t work well because while Cervelli struggles throwing out base runners, Nido has a strong arm, and he thrives in that area of the game.
#11 Wuilmer Becerra
Comp: J.D. Martinez
One of the biggest mistakes the Houston Astros have made in recent history was not being patient with Martinez. Throughout his minor league career, Martinez showed he was a prototypical right fielder that could one day play good defense while hitting for average and power. He just needed time to put everything together, and once he did, it was the Detroit Tigers, not the Houston Astros, that were the beneficiary.
For his part, Becerra has all the tools to be exactly what you look for in a major league right fielder. The Mets just have to give him the opportunity to fully rehab from his shoulder surgery and put his all around game together. With Becerra being added to the 40-man roster, it appears the Mets will not be making the same mistake the Astros once did.
#12 Peter Alonso
Comp: Wil Myers
Myers has an open stance, and he is able to hit for a lot of power. While he has a decent eye at the plate, he has enough holes in his swing that can be exploited by major league pitching which reduces his walk rate and leads to increased strikeouts. While Myers has the athleticism to play third base or the outfield, he is best suited to first. Essentially, that is what Alonso is at this point. He’s an open stance power hitter with holes in his swing that minor league pitchers cannot exploit at this time. In a farm system with Smith ahead of him, he has the athleticism to change positions, but in reality, like Myers, he’s best suited to first.
#13 Marcos Molina
Comp: Hansel Robles
Robles and Molina are two pitchers who have terrific stuff who are going to be held back by poor mechanics. While both have the stuff to get major leagues out, their less than optimal mechanics prevent them from either being a starting pitcher or a back end reliever. Fortunately for Molina, he has time to fix these issues, and he has better secondary stuff than Robles did at this point in his career.
#14 Ali Sanchez
Comp: Salvador Perez
Behind the plate Perez is about as complete a catcher as there is in the major leagues. He’s an ideal backstop that calls a good game, is a good pitch framer, and throws out many base runners. At the plate, he’s always put up a decent average, a low OBP, and he can hit for some power. At this point in his career, Sanchez projects to be similar to Perez behind that plate, and hopefully as he begins to mature physically, he can begin hitting for similar power numbers as Perez. It should be noted that at this point, Sanchez’s power just isn’t there yet.
#15 T.J. Rivera
Comp: Brock Holt
In his career, Holt has shown he has no true position meaning his best position is one of a utility player. At the plate, Holt tends to be aggressive at the plate, and he has shown doubles power. He’s a guy you can trust to hold down a position for short periods of time, but after a while his warts begin to show. For Mets fans, we have seen Rivera can adequately hold down a position when there are injuries. However, with his aggressive style of hitting, and with him not being a good defender at any position, Rivera should not be playing everyday at the major league level.
#16 Luis Carpio
Comp: Joe Panik
Both players have the ability to cover shortstop, but due to their arms, they are best suited to playing second base. That become all the more evident with Carpio due to his shoulder issues as well as the Mets organizational depth at shortstop. Also, at this point in his career, he looks to be like Panik at the plate. Both are aggressive hitters who don’t strike out often and draw a fair amount of walks. Neither player hits for much power, but it should be noted Carpio is still quite young for his level, is more athletically gifted, and could develop the power we have yet to see from Panik in his major league career.
#17 Merandy Gonzalez
Comp: Jason Isringhausen
For years, the Mets organization believed Isringhausen should not only be a starter, but a front line starter. The team was missing the boat not only due to the injuries, but also because he was really a fastball-curveball pitcher. Without Isringhausen truly developing that change-up, he was best suited to moving to the bullpen where he became a good closer. At this moment, Gonzalez is a two pitch pitcher with a very good fastball-curveball combination like Isringhausen. Like Isringhausen, his ability to pitch in the rotation is going to hinge on his developing a third pitch. One other factor indication Gonzalez may be better suited to the bullpen is his struggles repeating his delivery. With that in mind, he may be better suited to being a reliever that pitches predominantly out of the stretch.
#18 Gabriel Ynoa
Comp: Rafael Montero
Ynoa and Montero are very similar pitchers in terms of their stuff, how they attack batters, their minor league success, and what will prevent them from being successful at the major league level. Keep in mind, what has held Montero back isn’t his stuff, which is still promising, it is either his unwillingness or his fear of major league batters that prevents him from trusting that stuff. In his limited time in the majors, we saw Montero shy away from contact, walk more batters than he typically does, and mostly abandoned his change-up. In 2017, we will see if this was a learning experience for Ynoa, or if he is going to let his head get in the way of his talent.
#19 Gregory Guerrero
Comp: Josh Donaldson
In comparing Guerrero to Donaldson, you are looking not what he is, but what he could be. Ultimately, it is believed while Guerrero has the range for shortstop, he is going to physically grow out of the position and move to third base. At third base, he promises to be a very good defender with a very good bat. Considering Guerrero has not played above the Dominican Summer Leagues, he is going to need time to put his game, which is not too different than Donaldson who needed some time to put everything together in the major leagues.
#20 Chris Flexen
Comp: Zack Wheeler
Both pitchers have big arms and control issues. When Wheeler was seemingly turning the corner in late 2014, he showed he could be a big strikeout pitcher. However, it took him a while to get there as he struggled with his command, and he had a tendency to tip his pitches by changing arm speed and slots for his pitches. This is where Flexen is now.
#21 Josh Smoker
Comp: Billy Wagner
Finding a comp for Smoker is next to impossible as he is such a unique pitcher. He’s a left-handed pitcher that comes out of the bullpen, dominates right-handed batters, and strikes out a high rate of batters. Smoker’s ability to dominate right-handed batters while accumulating a high number of strike outs is reminiscent of Wagner. Where this comp fails is Wagner was equally dominant against left-handed batters. For his part, Smoker has struggled throughout his professional career against left-handed batters. With that said, if Smoker can learn the slider from Dan Warthen, he will then have a pitch to neutralize and possibly dominate left-handed batters.
#22 Ricardo Cespedes
Comp: Jackie Bradley, Jr.
Early on with the Red Sox, Bradley showed he was a plus defensive center fielder with speed. He also showed he had potential offensively with not just a patient approach at the plate, but also the potential for some power. As he has progressed as a professional, we have seen Bradley become more than just a glove, but also become a better player offensively who gets on base more frequently and who hits for more power. Right now, Cespedes has already shown the tools to be a plus defender in center. As the 18-year old matures physically, he should begin to hit for more power like we saw Bradley do this past season.
#23 P.J. Conlon
Comp: Jamie Moyer
Conlon lives in the 80s with all of his pitches, and as a result Conlon is going to need to rely on excellent command to be an effective major league pitcher. The road map for success for that type of pitcher is Moyer, who used that repertoire to be an effective, but rarely if ever dominant, major league pitcher.
#24 David Thompson
Comp: Justin Turner
Like Turner on the Mets, Thompson finds himself as a player stuck between second and third. Thompson may not have the arm for third or the range for second. Offensively, Thompson has shown he can hit for average with a decent OBP. The question is whether the power will ever come. If it doesn’t, he’s Turner on the Mets. If it does, He’s turner on the Dodgers.
#25 Harol Gonzalez
Comp: Rick Reed
Gonzalez is a four pitch pitcher that most relies upon mixing up his pitches and his speeds to get batters out. Like Reed, he knows how to attack batters, and he is not afraid to pitch backwards. While none of his pitches are outstanding, he knows how to best utilize them. That is what made Reed so effective during his tenure with the Mets, and it is what could make Gonzalez effective in the future.
#26 Nabil Crismatt
Comp: Ryan Madson
While the Mets have been stretching Crismatt over the past year, it appears his ultimate destination will be the bullpen as he is predominantly a fastball/change-up pitcher. This is similar to Madson whose repertoire once had the Phillies considering using him as a starter before putting him in the bullpen where he thrived. Both pitchers are able to locate, generate a high number of strikeouts, and are able to keep walks to a minimum. While Madson throws harder than Crismatt, it is possible Crismatt has an extra gear or two on his pitches should he go to the bullpen.
#27 Luis Guillorme
Comp: Adeiny Hechavarria
Like Hechavarria, Guillorme is a very good defensive shortstop that you just wonder when he is going to live up to his potential offensively. Overall, from an offensive standpoint, both players best feature is their speed; however, they do not get on base enough or hit the ball well enough to utilize their speed. With that said, you expect either one of these players to have a breakout season offensively sooner rather than later.
#28 Corey Taylor
Comp: Jeurys Familia
Taylor, like Familia, relies mostly on a high 90s fastball and a slider to get batters out. As Taylor’s slider improves, and we saw flashes of it during the Arizona Fall League, he is going to get increased strikeout numbers similar to those Familia puts up. Like Familia, Taylor uses a sinker to keep the ball on the ground making him less susceptible to the big home run. Also like Familia, Taylor has shown he has the mental makeup to be a closer.
#29 Andrew Church
Comp: Logan Verrett
After watching Verrett over the past couple of seasons with the Mets, we saw a four pitch fly ball pitcher who did not strike out many batters, struggled with consistency, and pitched to contact. Ultimately, Verrett is a bit of a tweener in that you are unsure if he’s a fifth starter or if he should serve in some sort of role in the bullpen. At this moment in Church’s career, he seems stuck between being a back end of the rotation pitcher or a bullpen arm without a plus pitch. Like Verrett, Church’s old school mentality is going to entice a team to give him an opportunity to succeed in either role.
#30 David Roseboom
Comp: Marc Rzepczynski
Rzepczynski and Roseboom are similar in the fact they have similar motions, throw sinkers in the low 90s, utilize a slider to neutralize left-handed batters, and use a change-up to keep right-handed batters honest. While Roseboom has had somewhat equal success against both right and left-handed batters, his stuff suggests he is better suited to being a LOOGY in the fashion of Rzepczynski at the major league level.
Here you can read the overview of our Top 30 Mets Prospects and read detailed scouting reports on each player.
Some feedback:
Brandon Nimmo seems to be labeled as a 4th outfielder where Markakis has been an all-star.
Calling Gimenez a Cabrera-type comp is a put down. Cabrera struggled mightily once the steroids testing came out and had a huge fall from grace. At this point, Brandon Crawford seems to be his match.
JD Martinez was actually very good for Houston for half a year, but his inability to hit the curve did him in. The Astros gave up on him quickly, but they f let he was too stubborn to improve and without that wake up call he may not be what he is today.
I appreciate the feedback. Just to touch on a few of your points.
With Nimmo, I was looking at what Markakis is now more than what Markakis has been over the course of his career. With that said, Nimmo is certainly capable of becoming an All Star at some point in his career.
With respect to Gimenez, I did preface it with a young Asdrubal. One thing that is funny to note is I did consider Crawford for him, but I thought he was a better hitter than Crawford.
I’ll note with Becerra the comp was not reflective on any issues Martinez was perceived to have with Houston.
If the Mets end up with the next Lindor, Freeman, Porcello, Mad Bum and Cutch, they will have a dynasty that rivals the late 90’s Yanks. I will believe it when I see it. Lindsay has me intrigued, however. Here’s hoping that he stays healthy the entire year.
I will believe it when I see it too. With that said, these are the players these prospects COULD be.
Still, a good article and a fun read. Thanks for putting it together.
If Guerrero’s comp is Josh Donaldson he should probably be moved up to #1 or 2 on this list.
I really appreciate that. Thank you.
I’m having trouble seeing most of these comps outside of Rosario, Smith and Roseboom.
I mean Gimenez to Cabrera is laughable. The only thing they have similar is that they are Venezuelan shortstops.
Andrew Church to Logan Verrett?
Not in the slightest.
Hechavarria is MUCH faster than Guillorme.
Really don’t like comps, but the Rosario to Lindor and Smith to Freeman ones are both pretty good. Also, I do like the Robles to Molina comp, even though people are going to see that as being low on Molina. Molina has better secondary stuff than Robles, but I can definitely see the similarity in mechanics and electric fastballs.
Agreed 100%. Most were just inane.
This is a very long term admittedly very imperfect comparison.
Saying Guerrero could one day be a Donaldson is not the same thing as saying he’s close to being that.
For what it’s worth, those are three of the comps I felt most comfortable with. The one I probably felt most comfortable was Conlon – Moyer.
Thanks for stopping by.
Appreciate the constructive criticism.
Yeah, I also really like the Conlon – Moyer comp. As I said, I hate comps, so good job getting several that I can get on board with. Definitely a fun article for the middle of winter with nothing else going on. Good job.
Personally, I don’t love comps. With that said, they are somewhat useful and instructive when: (1) you’re choosing the right player; and (2) the reader understand the reason for the comp. That’s why I had the prologue I did.
Thanks for the compliment. I appreciate it.
Ha! Touche.
And I apologize for being pissy.
No need to apologize.
I do appreciate you taking the time to read it.
There’s no reason for me to eat pissy and I didn’t provide anything constructive. So there’s ample room for an apology and I refuse to take back my apology!! Ha
Alright, now you’ve made me angry.
Ha. Have a good night
Hey, you can come in and criticize my work too. It’s what makes us better at…well, everything. I love constructive criticism, I ask for it everywhere, especially my dad, who would tear my writing apart, and I love it.
There’s just a lot of problems I have found with these comps. It’s why I’ve always refused to do Comps myself because putting that type of notion on a prospect, is ignorance of their own unique abilities and they rarely mirror the player they’re being comped to. That’s on anyone who actually throws comps on players, not just you. Some people just do lazy comps as well, and they’re a pretty big cop-out.
The significant difference is that Molina’s mechanics were too simple, causing arm trouble to a fantastic arm as a starter, while Robles’s were hard to repeat and would cause trouble in control and effectiveness. Molina’s overall talent is a much much higher ceiling, and I think unlike Robles, they’re committed to having Molina start a bit longer.
Right, I absolutely agree with you on that. As I said, Molina has much better secondaries and also better command, and thus a higher upside. But I don’t see Molina sticking as a starter, and I think the most likely outcome would be Molina becoming a lights-out reliever, something that Robles has shown flashes of., but Molina has a higher likelihood of actually reaching
Well then, thank you for what you perceive to be constructive criticism. I am humbled you took the time to read my piece not to bash it, but rather to call me ignorant. You truly are a great man for taking time out of your day to try to better me. Means the world to me.
Jeez, even when I try not to be arrogant, I sound it anyway… sorry.
Go ahead and bash some of my profiles if you want, i’m always ready for a debate. I’m not calling you ignorant per se, and how I phrased it was douchey, since you know enough about these guys to know that there are fundamental differences and you tried to find major league comparisons where there are barely any for these skillsets.
Here’s an example, I would rather do Edgar Renteria over Asdrubal Cabrera, since I don’t think Gimenez will hit for the same type of power, has better speed, and a better bat for average. The thing is, is that Renteria’s OBP is not at the standard that I believe Gimenez would perform at, because I do believe Gimenez had some mastery of the zone.
I should have phrased it to this: Comps can create ignorance to the specifics of what makes players great. Not that you’re ignorant, you’re writing the article, you know the players. The readers who don’t know them would then draw their conclusions, themselves, which gives you less leeway later in interaction.
but you’re welcome any time to give me criticism, constructive criticism, etc. I need it, and no one has done it yet.
Sounds like it was a very hard project.
The reason for my Nimmo statement is constantly reading and hearing that he’s a fourth outfielder, that he can’t hit lefties, on and on and on with the bashing. The kid has improved in many areas of his game, and to be compared to an all-star is great – I’d sign for that right now – but it seems when you hear something about Nimmo it’s always negative. Just two days ago Alderson said that he profiles well to a fourth outfielder. What a pat on the back, huh?
Here’s the thing with Nimmo, and it was a point I tried to make, he can be a starting OF, but if he is one it tells you more about what’s around him than what he is.
smith to hosmer always felt right to me, body type, power and def profiles.
lindsey feels more like an adam jones comp but not a bad thing nonetheless.