We’re exactly one month out from the start of the 2017 MLB Draft where the Mets will once again set their sights on the future and (hopefully) pick a star or three to help lead the big club to victory in a few years. The Mets have done well with their first round picks of late, with the highlights of recent years being Michael Conforto and Matt Harvey in 2014 and 2010 respectively. First rounder in 2013 Dominic Smith has been lighting up the minors for a few years now, playing in the All-Stars Futures Game last summer and could be in Flushing soon.
Nothing is a sure thing in the first round of the draft however, as Mets fans know all too well. For every David Wright, there’s a Lastings Milledge and we’ve seen enough Scott Kazmir’s to know that no pitcher is guaranteed to be the next Doc Gooden, no matter how nasty his stuff.
The Mets have the 20th pick of the first round this year, about the same as last year where they took pitcher Justin Dunn of Boston College with the 19th pick. Let’s take a look at what the national leader in baseball projections and prospect rankings, Baseball America, is saying about how the first round might shake out for the Metropolitans.
BA has the Mets picking Keston Hiura out of UC Irvine in the first round. The big issue here is that Hiura, who posted a slash line of 423/.535/.748 with 17 doubles and seven homers and ranks in the top 10 nationally in several offensive categories, has been the designated hitter for the Banana Slugs for much of the spring.
Hiura has had persistent elbow issues for two seasons now, hindering his ability to hit at times and making his throwing arm all but nonexistent. When he has played in the field in the past it’s been at positions where his weak arm can be hidden, second base or left field. While a bat as explosive as Hiura’s would make a great addition to any ball club, a National League team drafting a guy without a position that has barely seen the field in two seasons seems a bit dubious. College injuries can be overcome with big league medical staffs and physical therapy regimens but the persistence of Hiura’s elbow pain is troubling. A bat this big can’t be left on the board though and even if it’s just as a trading chip with an American League team in the future, expect the Mets to grab Hirua if he’s still available at No. 20.
Some other mock drafts of note:
CalltothePen.com has the Mets taking RHP Griffin Canning out of UCLA in the first round. Canning has a big arm that would fit in nicely with the current stock of young pitchers in the Mets system. He was drafted out of high school in the 38th round by the Rockies in 2014 but opted to refine his game at the collegiate level where he’s gone 17-11 for the Bruins, posting a 3.06 ERA while striking out more than a batter per inning in three seasons.
PerfectGame.org projects another hard throwing right hander, Tanner Houck out of The University of Missouri, to go to the Mets in the first round. Houck throws in the mid-to-low 90’s and has a devastating slider. Houck had an ERA of 3.14 with WHIP of 1.03 and K/9 of nearly 9 in three years with the Tigers.
Something intriguing happened at the University of Houston on May 10, as the Cougars kicked off elite prospect Seth Romero for “conduct detrimental to the team.” The Texas native leads the nation with 15.72 strikeouts per nine innings this season. In 47 appearances for the Cougars during his career, more than half of them starts, he posted a 2.43 ERA with 290 strikeouts in 226 1/3 innings. Romero was projected to go as high as No. 7 overall just a few weeks ago but has seen that number fall in the few days since he has been released from the team. This provides some food for thought for Met fans to chew on. Depending on the seriousness of the actions that caused Romero’s removal (everything reported thus far is rumor based) the Mets could land one of the best pitchers in the nation at the No. 20 spot.
Most signs right now are pointing to the Mets taking a pitcher in the first round. While we can all agree the the team’s offense has been nothing remarkable for the past couple of seasons and a bat or two could certainly help the team out down the road, the Mets generally go with the best player available to them.
The 2017 Major League Baseball Amateur Draft is begins on June 12th at 7:00 PM EST in Secaucus, NJ.
The Mets need bats, and the bigger the better. They have a ton of arms, but look at their entire system: Batting averages are down. Nido, Lindsey, Buccerra, Cecchini, these are top ten prospects that have struggled this year.
Look at the Cubs, they got the best hitters and figured it out from there. The Mets need to stock their system with offense because we see that pitchers are fragile and stocking up on arms all these years leaves a team with no leadoff candidates, no diversity, and while Rosario and Smith have shiny averages in Vegas, first it’s Vegas, and second, it’s still the minors and impressive numbers in the minors is no guarantee.
Mets currently have less high end pitchers in their minors than bats. Cant think of a single high end arm outside of Molina and Dunn to a lesser extent that are any good. Mets graduated Conforto, but have Cecchini, Smith, Rosario, Alonso, Becerra and Nido coming up nicely along with some other young players….Cant say the same about pitchers
If those guys were high end hitters, Cecchini, Beccera, and Nido wouldn’t be hitting about .250, and as for Rosario, Smith, and Alonso, you don’t know who will succeed and who will fail so you need quantity. Look at the Cubs, all that hitting and still Ian Happ was brought up today.
Outside of Dunn and Molina, the Mets also have Gonzales, Szapucki, and several big time arms from last year’s draft like Kay, Holderman, Cleveland and Planck. I think we’re more advanced on the mound in the minors than we are covering the other eight positions.
The best approach will continue to be drafting the best available player, regardless of position or possible need.