I’ll be taking over from now on with the Prospect Face-Offs.
This week, we have two young and promising Right Handers in Matthew Bowman and Luis Cessa. Both started out in Single-A Savannah this year, at 20 (Cessa) and 21 years (Bowman) of age respectively, and both did fairly well on the level, with the exception that Bowman was moved up to St. Lucie and Cessa wasn’t. With both fairly decent arsenals, we are interested in who’s going to fare better as a prospect, and who has the better stuff overall. 5 of our writers weigh in on this debate, including me.
Satish Ram
Both of these guys are on the fringe as prospects and as starting pitchers. That’s not an insult to either of them, however, considering how deep the Mets are in their system pitching-wise right now. On one hand, you’ve got a converted infielder in Cessa with a fastball that demonstrates late life in the zone — and a pretty nice change-up to boot. On the other hand, you’ve got Princeton’s Lincecum in Matthew Bowman — a right-hander who the Mets were pretty high on at the time of the draft throwing in the low 90s with a slider as his best secondary. He used to play shortstop in college if I remember correctly, by the way. I think I find myself favoring Cessa just a bit here because I think he has more long-term potential as a starter and has the leg up in terms of his arsenal. Both players are pretty enjoyable to watch at this stage in their careers, however, so it’ll be interesting to see how things work out. Verdict: Cessa
Cole Benz
This one was very tough. Matthew Bowman and Luis Cessa are very close statistically. Even though Cessa has spent more time in the Mets’ system, Bowman had been playing college ball at Princeton. Ultimately, I think Bowman is going to be a larger contributor. He has already leaped frogged Cessa, as he was promoted to St. Lucie early in the 2013 season and fared very well with the adjustment. Some of Bowman’s stats, which I personally hold in high regard when measuring a pitchers success, are lower than Cessa’s. Bowman’s hits, H/9 and WHIP are lower than Cessa’s, and that’s while Bowman played most of the year a level higher. Bowman’s walk rate is higher than Cessa’s, but I also attribute that to the level of ball each played in 2013. Verdict: Matthew Bowman
Connor O’Brien
This is a very close comparison. You’ve got two right-handers in the lower minors, both of whom have experienced major early success in their minor league careers. Both have excellent control, with Bowman walking 2.1 per nine and Cessa walking 1.6 in their careers so far. I’m a little concerned with Cessa’s very low strikeout numbers in Brooklyn last year (5.5 per nine) and in the Gulf Coast League the year before (6.5 per nine) and wonder if that’s something we will see going forward or whether he will put up higher numbers like he did this year (8.6 K/9). For that reason, even though he is a year older, I’m going with Bowman. While he has pitched well in pitching heavens Brooklyn and Savannah, he also had success last year with St. Lucie, posting a 3.18 ERA and 3.50 FIP in 96.1 innings while only walking 2.9 batters per nine innings. He’s more of a sure thing at this point. Verdict: Bowman
David Conde
Each season that Luis Cessa has pitched in the minors, he has added wins to his record. The one thing that truly impressed me with Cessa is that he was originally signed as an infielder and because he injured his left shoulder in the Dominican Summer league in 2009, and then re-injured the same shoulder in 2010, it set him back, but it turned out to be a decision that would change his life. His coaches decided to convert him into a pitcher and he has impressed ever since. With Savannah this summer, he was 8-4, with a 3.12 ERA. He did give up a ton of hits (136) and runs (45) and served up 11 home runs but he only walked 19 batters in 130 innings; which says to me that he throws strikes. When he learns to add a bit more movement to his pitches, he will have better command and be able to fool more hitters.
Matthew Bowman started his pro career by mostly pitching out of the bullpen in Brooklyn. When he was moved to Savannah this past season, he turned into a starter and won 4 of 5 games and was quickly promoted to St. Lucie and he didn’t disappoint by going 6-4, even though most of his wins came in May and June. For the season, he gave up 111 hits, 43 runs, 8 home runs, walked 35 batters and struck out 116 in 127 innings. I like that he can overpower a batter and strike them out, but he also walked almost double compared to Cessa in almost the same amount of innings. I think he also has some things to work on, but overall I feel he is on the right track.
Tough decision, but my pick is Luis Cessa; I just like his story and feel that he at this point of his career a bit better than Bowman, but not by much. Verdict: Cessa
Teddy Klein
I guess I’m the tiebreaker here. I must say that both of these gentlemen are talented individuals. They both throw in the low 90’s ranging from 88 to 92, and have some impeccable control. But, while Bowman was in the Bullpen in 2012 in Brooklyn, after being picked in the 13th round that year out of Princeton, Cessa was in the rotation on the same team and doing fairly well.
But, during the next year, they both started out in the rotation, with Bowman getting promoted to Hi-A St. Lucie, and Cessa lagging behind. Bowman didn’t just get promoted, he put up similar strikeout numbers in St. Lucie, but his ERA jumped almost a full run, and so did his walk rate. Cessa did just fine as well, throwing 3 more innings than Bowman, but giving up more hits and runs at a lower level. Granted, he is 11 months younger than Bowman as well, and didn’t get college experience.
Both seem to be able to repeat their mechanics, but Bowman’s are more questionable. He emulates Tim Lincecum’s very unique delivery, which gave him the fan-conceived nickname “Princecum” (Or Satish and I would break it down). Because of Lincecum’s drop in velocity after using such an intense delivery, it makes his Princeton counterpart’s longevity questionable.
In terms of breakers, Cessa’s reports came in as being sub-par thus far, from a rankings from the NY-Penn League last year. Bowman’s are seemingly superior to Cessa, thus far. However, he does have time to fix this at 21, especially with the lesser pressure on him since the Mets have a large depth of pitchers in the Minors. But, if they don’t improve, he will be destined to become a reliever. They both will, pretty much, with Bowman’s delivery being the largest question mark in terms of longevity.
With more concern around Bowman’s delivery, I believe that Cessa will have more of a career if/when they hit the MLB, most likely as relievers. This was a long road and a tough choice too, especially because I love the nickname Princecum. Verdict: Luis Cessa
Cessa wins in a squeaker against Matt Bowman. Boy, this is a fun debate. Tune in next week, and feel free to give us two more prospects to compare.