Today is the day, the deadline to add Rule 5-eligible minor leaguers to the 40-man roster to shield them from selection is 5 p.m. ET on Friday. It’s the first notable roster-related date of the Steve Cohen era, but Friday is likely to come and go without much to show for it.

One year ago, the Mets protected four: Andrés Giménez and Ali Sánchez ended up providing varying levels of contributions in 2020, while Thomas Szapucki continued his development at the Alternate Site and Jordan Humphreys was lost to the Giants on waivers in a roster crunch.

No one earned the call in 2018, the only transaction that Nov. 20 being the release of Jenrry Mejia. That might end up looking like a busy deadline compared to next Friday.

With 11 of the Mets’ top 13 prospects (according to MLB Pipeline, the other two being Szapucki and Franklyn Kilomé) too young for Rule 5 selection, the highest-ranked eligible players fall in the “interesting, but not an automatic add” category.

And with just four open spots on the 40-man roster at present, there isn’t much room for protections or eventual selections ahead of what is sure to be a busy offseason.

Regardless, let’s look at some of those intriguing names and where they stand heading into 2021.

(Note that this isn’t a comprehensive list. 65 players in the organization are eligible, with a maximum of 38 allowed to be placed on the Triple-A reserve list to protect them from the minor league phase of the draft. Determining who the 38 should be while also recognizing that the maximum doesn’t allow space for selections in the MiLB phase — the Mets have been active there recently — is not an enviable task.)

Non-first timers

SS Shervyen Newton
2B Luis Carpio
RHSP Harol Gonzalez

Though no organizational top prospects are Rule 5-eligible this year, Newton is the only player on the list who was once ranked in the top 10. The toolsy infielder was also eligible in 2019 and would have been protected (or selected) had he played above rookie ball. Newton was hampered by a lingering shoulder injury throughout the 2019 season and his stock is clearly lower than it was last November.

Carpio and Gonzalez were both eligible for minor league free agency but the Mets preempted that by inking them to 2021 successor contracts. It’s unlikely that either would be plucked in the draft ahead of their eighth professional seasons but Carpio has an average skillset across the board and Gonzalez has all the makings of a backend rotation piece.

2017 college draft picks

OF Quinn Brodey
3B Will Toffey
RHSP Tony Dibrell
RHRP Marcel Renteria

The only first-time Rule 5-eligible player to spend time at the Mets’ Alternate Training Site this summer? That would be Brodey, who has been a fringe top-30 prospect since his third-round selection in 2017. He reached Double-A Binghamton in 2019, where he managed league-average production in 276 plate appearances. Perhaps a team lacking outfield depth (Brodey can handle center or a corner) likes what they saw in his video and data from the ATS.

Toffey is really only here because he headlined the return for a solid reliever in Jeurys Familia in 2018. His offensive and defensive performance since then have been underwhelming.

Dibrell, taken 16 picks after Toffey, led the South Atlantic League in strikeouts in 2018, put up strong numbers in 90 1/3 innings at High-A in the first half of 2019 (2.39 ERA, .223 Opp. AVG), but was then beat up in nine Double-A outings (9.31 ERA, .311 Opp. AVG). Now 25, Dibrell’s development was significantly set back without a season this year.

Renteria, drafted as a starter in the sixth round, was converted to a reliever in 2019. The transition had a rocky beginning, recording a 8.49 ERA in his first 14 outings, but he settled in to post a 2.23 with a strikeout an inning over his final 24 appearances. Renteria has swing-and-miss stuff and touched 99 mph in workouts this summer but will be 26 next season.

Low minors names to know

RHSP Daison Acosta
RHSP Michel Otañez
RHSP Dedniel Nuñez
RHSP Garrison Bryant
SS Wilmer Reyes
3B Jose Peroza

Acosta and Otañez popped onto prospect radars in 2019, with both receiving midseason promotions (Brooklyn to Columbia and Kingsport to Brooklyn, respectively). Otañez routinely hits the high 90s with his fastball but control issues have held back a true breakout. Bryant put up some of the best numbers in the New York-Penn League in 2019 but did so on the back of advanced feel rather than overpowering stuff.

Reyes, one of the top performers in October’s Mets instructional league with four home runs, owns a unique power/defense skillset up the middle. He’s likely safe from selection given his lack of experience above short-season but the conversation could be different a year from now. (I wouldn’t put money on it, but Reyes would be my dark horse 40-man add next week.)

If Reyes is a raw and tantalizing infielder, Peroza is even more so. At 19 years old in 2019 he cracked 10 home runs between the GCL and Brooklyn and owns one of the stronger arms from third base that I’ve seen from a teenager. I’ll be following his development closely but it’s too soon to think about his chances of getting plucked in the draft.

Other

DH Tim Tebow

As long as Tebow remains in the organization, this is going to be a conversation. Unnecessary, sure, but it’s still the elephant in the room.

We’ve seen how much attention he gets at minor league and, notably, spring training games. What’s stopping the Pirates, Tigers, or whichever team is already out of contention in March from picking Tebow, bringing him into camp, and cutting ties at the end of the month? At that point the Mets could reject the return and move on or take him back to continue the experiment (I guess there’s also a scenario where he bounces around the waiver wire until everyone in the league has had their shot).

Given that the Wilpons and Brodie Van Wagenen, Tebow’s former agent, are now out of the picture, you can make the argument that the organization would be more willing to move on from him. But with Sandy Alderson, who admitted to signing Tebow for the entertainment value, back in the fold, I wouldn’t put the chances of a 40-man add at zero.