Dan Farnsworth of Fangraphs continued the site’s team by team prospect lists on Tuesday with the New York Mets. You can see the list below, along with their placements on last year’s rankings.
- LHP Steven Matz (7)
- OF Desmond Lindsay (N/A)
- SS Amed Rosario (3)
- SS Gregory Guerrero (N/A)
- 1B Dominic Smith (9)
- SS Gavin Cecchini (14)
- RHP Marcos Molina (10)
- OF Wuilmer Becerra (NR)
- SS Luis Guillorme (NR)
- SS Luis Carpio (NR)
- SS Milton Ramos (19)
- RHP Seth Lugo (NR)
- SS Andres Gimenez (N/A)
- 3B Jhoan Urena (11)
- OF Brandon Nimmo (6)
- 3B Eudor Garcia (NR)
- C Ali Sanchez (NR)
- SS Matt Reynolds (16)
- LHP Max Wotell (N/A)
- LHP Josh Smoker (N/A)
- RHP Akeel Morris (13)
- LHP Dario Alvarez (NR)
- RHP Chris Flexen (NR)
- RHP Gabriel Ynoa (26)
- RHP Robert Gsellman (NR)
- 2B L.J. Mazzilli (21)
- OF Kevin Kaczmarski (N/A)
- RHP Mickey Jannis (N/A)
Other names: 2B Jonathan Johnson, 3B Jeff McNeil, 3B David Thompson, OF Raphael Ramirez, OF Ricardo Cespedes, C Patrick Mazeika, OF John Mora, LHP Thomas Szapucki
There are no surprises at number one, but things get interesting right after.
Lindsay is ranked here as the second best prospect in the system, contrary to most lists, which usually place him in the 7-10 range. He for sure has good baseball instincts paired with above average speed, but his inexperience in the outfield – and in professional baseball in general – are two of the main reasons why he usually slides well behind a guy like Rosario, who possesses a constantly improving bat and an already strong profile in the field, to go along with over 230 games of minor league exposure.
There’s only so much you can tell about a player from workout videos and brief scouting reports, so until multiple eyewitness accounts and, you know, actual statistics from professional games start coming in, I would have a hard time placing Guerrero ahead of players like Smith and Cecchini, who have gotten (or will get) reps in the upper levels and major league Spring Training games. Same goes for Gimenez over Nimmo and Reynolds.
What is interesting to note, is just how much the outlook of the system has changed in a year. The 2015 list had seven graduations (Noah Syndergaard, Kevin Plawecki, Michael Conforto, Dilson Herrera, Rafael Montero, Hansel Robles, and Sean Gilmartin), and eight players who left the organization (Michael Fulmer, Cory Mazzoni, Matt Bowman, Casey Meisner, Cesar Puello, Rob Whalen, Luis Cessa, and Miller Diaz). Additionally, three prospects dropped off the list completely (Champ Stuart, Vicente Lupo, and Ivan Wilson).
Breakout performances from Becerra, Guillorme, Lugo, and Smoker throw even more names into the mix that had never been legitimately regarded as potential contributors at the major league level. Two players selected in the 2015 draft (Kaczmarski and Wotell) infuse the system with even more youth. At the same time, six players have experience in Triple-A or in the major leagues, providing experienced, high caliber talents to be excited about.
Although most will question the final order of Fangraphs’ list (as is the case with any prospect ranking), Farnsworth had pretty much all of the necessary players somewhere in the order. I’m a little surprised that the likes of T.J. Rivera and John Mora failed to make the cut, but Rivera is getting up there in age for a prospect, and Mora has the opportunity to join the breakout players this year in St. Lucie.
It’s been a long offseason, filled with prospect rankings left and right. Breathe easy, Mets fans – we’re now under a month until the minor league season begins on April 7.
Not quite ready to bury Nimmo that deep, and not sure that he was a mistake yet, but I have never seen a 22 year old be written off.
Would have given this list much more credence had it been as last year’s where proximity to MLB played a role but this year it obviously didn’t. Other than that, the names are the same as everyone else’s just a different order.
What I like about the fangraphs rankings is they are grouped together by FV. I also like that they quantified the scouting grade for novices. A great reference point to at least put fans in the same chapter. Everyone will have difference of opinion on how grading of the tools are presently and how they translate in the future. But it at least gives some reference to what a grade translates too.
I was a little surprised to see Kaczmarski that high, had a great year but very old for his league. I think the biggest thing for Nimmo this year is to stay healthy, still has talent to be a MLB 4th outfielder at worst.
I actually haven’t seen FanGraphs list at all until Jacob posted this. I like it a lot, it’s different than past lists I have seen.
Having the prospects grouped (Sickies is similar) gives a little different context than saying Matz is #1 and Nimmo is #7
We thought about doing grades this year at MMN. Maybe some we should do next or at least with the top 30.
I think Paul Depo said last year the Mets do something similar. I don’t think in terms of letter grades like A, B, B+, C, etc. like Sickles but some sort of groups of 3 or 4 players each. I think Paul said the Mets also try to project their future role in MLB ie. starter or bench positional player, top, middle or back of the rotation SP, front or back of the bullpen arm, etc.
When we first drafted nimmo I was hoping we had a diamond in the rough but after 5 years and never dominating at ANY level and not showing to be good in any 1 offensive category what do you think is going to happen? do you believe he is all of a sudden going to become a MLB player? it might take another 5 years, if we can package him in some kind of deal because someone else thinks he’s good then we need to ASAP
He certainly has shown that he can get on base which is an important part of the game today. He also can play a MLB caliber outfield. The big question is whether he can stay healthy and whether he can start taking advantage when he is ahead in the count. He should still see some MLB time this year.
Any updates on Marcos Molina after his TJS? I think got his surgery in August after rehabbing for most of the year! But how IS his rehab going? MM is another high ceiling guy that could join the Met (or someone else’s) rotation in 2018/ 2019!
Yeah, Desmond Lindsay has some loud tools too like Rosario except for his arm plus I never saw Paul Depo or Tommy Tanous calling Rosario “a hitting machine” in any article as Tanous called Desmond after the Mets drafted him last year.
Molina was recently seen playing catch at 90 feet, he had his surgery in September I believe. He definitely has the highest ceiling of any of the Mets pitching prospects outside of Steven Matz.