It is off/pre-season list time for prospect writers across the interweb. Publications, magazines, and blogs will reveal their respective rankings of prospects near and dear to our hearts. (I previously mentioned our tentative schedule for our MMN list here.) Baseball Prospectus is the first to toe the water this year, which you can read in its entirety here.

There really is no surprises among the list, it is a safe assumption that everyone will have Rosario #1, and #2-8 will be interchangeable of every writer’s preference, and there will probably five or six names among the final two spots through various lists.

The Top Ten

1. SS Amed Rosario
2. RHP Robert Gsellman
3. LHP Thomas Szapucki
4. 1B Dominic Smith
5. CF Desmond Lindsay
6. RHP Justin Dunn
7. SS Andres Gimenez
8. OF Brandon Nimmo
9. SS Gavin Cecchini
10. RF Wuilmer Becerra

No shockers. Having Gsellman #2 may raise an eyebrow or two, but considering the bump in velocity, successful ML debut, and the Mets track record of pitchers escalating their profile once in the majors, it is easy to come to that conclusion.

Something of note in looking at the list, there are seven names that could warrant consideration as among the top 100-125 prospects in the game. While distance/risk will probably keep the latter half off such a list, successful introductions into full season ball will alleviate some of those concerns.

The BP staff is expanding their coverage to 30 prospects over the next few weeks, doing so in a roundtable discussion.

11. Luis Carpio
12. Tomas Nido
13. Gabriel Ynoa
14.  Ali Sanchez
15.  Marcus Molina
16. Josh Smoker
17. T.J. Rivera
18. Luis Guillorme
19. Peter Alonso
20. Merandy Gonzalez

One other note I take from the Baseball Prospectus top ten list; their head prospect writer; Jeffrey Paternostro is a self professed Mets fan and Mets prospect detractor. He tends to damper expectations of Mets prospects covered while giving insight into highlighted reasons to fawn over their potential.

So I take Alonso’s ranking with a slight grain of salt. Though the Ike Davis image that JP’s write up conjures up is duly noted:

“Alonso’s stance is wide open and he stands well off the plate. He uses a medium leg lift to close, but he starts the whole process early and lets the leg hang a bit before getting it down. The timing here is inconsistent and often leaves his upper half trying to catch up. The swing itself has some length to the ball, the bat speed doesn’t jump out at you, and Alonso struggles with balls below his waist and spin generally. It’s a long-and-strong power profile, and those tend to struggle the first time they see higher-quality stuff. Even short-season arms have occasionally been able to exploit the holes (though they have many more times given him balls up in the zone he can both catch up to and get extended on).“

I happen to believe in the power a little more and anticipate him making some adjustments with pro-coaching.

Some fans may take issue with the T.J. Rivera ranking, believing in the September stats more than everything else, But I think they hit the nail in the head with:

“ It might be a 60 hit tool. And the rest of the profile might not be enough to carry it. But 60 hit guys who can sort of stand at many positions do have roles as good utility players. “

If he were a few years younger and having done what he did I would probably be more excited.

The Merandy inclusion is somewhat refreshing, after an outstanding season at Brooklyn his profile is on the rise. He is definitely one to watch as he moves on to full season ball, and see if he can improve his secondary offerings.

In addition to JP’s affinity for fringe “guys” (Petit, Satin, Ynoa, etal), catchers defense,  and“true shortstops”, you get some perspective on how Molina could easily be among the top 100 prospects next season or just another RH bullpen option. There is some hedging on the overall outlook on Nido and Sanchez, because “catchers can be weird”. The series is well worth the read and worthy to kick off the prospect list off-season discussion.