Dominic Smith is currently the Mets number two prospect according to us here at Mets Minors and is considered their top prospect by some including Keith Law.
The knock by some, coming into 2016 in Smith was the lack of power he has shown since being draft by the Mets out of the first round in 2013. In his first two seasons he combined to hit four home runs in 177 games including only one in 461 at bats for the Savannah Sand Gnats in 2014.
His power started showing up last season when he led the Florida State League with 33 doubles while hitting six home runs in what is considered a pitcher friendly league. He finished with a .417 slugging percentage which was the fourth best in the league. All while starting the season as a 19-year old and winning the Most Valuable Player award for the league.
Before the Binghamton Mets game on Saturday I had the opportunity to watch Smith take batting practice. He started off in the first round by peppering the entire field with line drives, something he continues to do once the games start.
Then came the next couple of rounds where he started showing off the power we have all wanted to see. He was hitting balls out to left center, center and pulling a few to right field. The biggest thing that jumped out to be was the loft that he was getting. These weren’t all just line drive home runs, he hit a couple to right field that were Lucas Duda like moon shots.
His power carried over to the game as well, hitting a shot to left center field for his fourth home run of the season. He didn’t hit his fourth homer of the season in 2015 until July 11th. I did I mention he is only 20-years old and one of the youngest players in the entire league.
In the same day, he hit what is one of the highest fly balls I’ve ever seen in-person, the height was measured at 195 feet. The point being that Smith is starting to lift the ball and that combined with the fact that he makes a ton of hard contact should translate to more balls traveling out of the park.
I have been saying for awhile that I think Smith could be a major league caliber starting first baseman without the traditional power you like from a corner position. That is partially because he already uses the entire field, showed gap power the other way and has a beautiful swing. He is also a plus defender at first base despite having what some thing is a physique issue.
Smith didn’t disappoint in any of those areas when I saw him either, he looked great over at first. His hands are smooth, great footwork around the bag and provided perfect feeds to pitchers covering first.
He faced two lefties in the second game I watched and went 1 for 2 with a line drive single to left center and a hard hit ball to the shortstop hole that turned into a RBI ground out. The single came off a 3-2 fastball that came in at 94.7 MPH after he had fouled off a tough breaking ball.
I wouldn’t be able to write a report on Smith without mentioning his size which seems to be an issue for some. Does he look like a prototypical major league player, no. Has he worked hard to get in better shape, yes and I didn’t come across a single instance where I was like, well he could have done that if he was 20 pounds lighter. Bottom line is that he is a good player whether he looks like Yoenis Cespedes or Prince Fielder.
My assessment of Dominic Smith hasn’t changed much, he is going to be a first division first baseman that gets on base, hits the ball foul line to foul line and provides value as a defender.
I was able to talk to a scout from an AL Central team that had this to say about Smith
He is going to hit for power and he is going to be the Mets first baseman for a very long time.
That is where my thoughts on Smith change, before seeing this year I thought he would be a guy that hit 13-16 home runs at the big league level. With him beginning to lift the ball and hit more balls to the pull side I could see him launching 18-22 long balls in a full season.
Time for Mets fans to rejoice as Smith is now showing the power you had all hoped for and should be bringing it to your viewing pleasure at Citi Field before you know it.
Great write up Michael. But, didn’t Keith Law put “The Tool Shed” as his #1 prospect?
Thank you, nope he shocked everyone with Smith at the top. Here is the link. http://metsminors.net/law-releases-mets-top-prospects-featuring-six-shortstops/
Tony Gwynn wasn’t the greatest physical specimen either but he could rake
Kirby Puckett.
Finally a alderson draft pick that might make it to the show
I guess Conforto doesn’t count to you?
My bad I guess I missed the can’t miss guy I’ve been waiting for some of the other guys that weren’t can’t miss guys to make it
Great piece Michael. Thanks!
This is precisely the sort of detail I was referencing in our earlier – really helpful for those of us who do not get to see these guys live, and only get sporadic video highlights.
Thanks again!
Seriously?
Verrett, Fulmer, Plawecki, Reynolds, and Conforto have all made it to the big leagues.
Definitely, the only reason I mentioned his physique is because it has been a hot topic lately. I don’t see it as a big issue.
Exactly what to go watch BP for.
it is a pertinent issue. Bad physiques can lead to injury concerns
It could be an issue if it was affecting his play but it’s not. Also not unheard for a first baseman to be his size. I understand what your saying about injuries but we are talking about a guy that is still showing great agility in the field and good range. It’s not like he is a slob that can barely move around the bag because of the physique. Not everyone is molded the same way.
Outstanding review. Mets will have a decision to make when Duda contracts expires.
Thank you and they certainly will. As much as I like Duda if Smith continues his development path I think he is definitely the Mets 1B in 2018.
I don’t think Michael is arguing that it is not pertinent, just that at this time it is not a “big” issue. Double entendre aside, I agree with Michael that, at this point, it does not appear to be a significant concern. Smith is 20 years old, so while you raise a very valid point jdon that it bears watching, it seems more likely that Smith should have several years ahead of him before it becomes an issue.
Agreed. I don’t think it will be much of a decision if Smith continues his development.
While things often have a way of working out, it strikes me that with the Mets hopefully being legitimate contenders each of the next few years, they are likely to take a more cautious approach integrating prospects. For instance, if this were the Mets of 2013, I believe the Mets would have been comfortable going into ST with Herrera as the presumptive favorite to win the 2B job, instead of trading for Walker.
It will be interesting to see how they go about integrating guys like Smith and Rosario if they continue to develop – would they be comfortable having two rookies slotted into the everyday lineup for a team that presumably (hopefully) will be a WS contender in two years? I have no doubt if they did, they would bring in a veteran on a short term deal to provide a bridge/backstop, but the caliber of that player is what interests me. Will it be a Walker type, who is brought in to start over the rookie unless and until traded, or will it be a Kelly Johnson type, who is more keeping the seat warm and/or serving as a backup who can ease the transition?
There are variables to consider, including payroll flexibility and being able to compete. Of course, all this is contingent on our prospects continuing to develop at about the same speed they are developing now – which we know is not etched in stone.
And, yes, I realize that I am ignoring other prospects who could make an impact, whether it be Cecchini or Nimmo by as early as this year or more likely next year or a guy like Beccera who may be a year (or only 1/2 of a year) behind Smith and Rosario.
I was thinking more of wear and tear during his career.
that’s true.
But Tony was thin when he started out.
As long as he doesn’t turn into Pablo Sandoval.
Glad we didn’t extend Duda last season.
I’m pretty sure most fans would welcome the offensive production Sandoval has had at the big league level.
I meant weight wise. 😉
your right they have made it I guess I miss how it was Omar’s last draft in 2010 he had 6 guys make it from just that draft it only took alderson 5 drafts to get 7 guys there and Michael was a can’t miss guy
coming into that draft we were desperate for a bat and he was the most major league ready according to all the scouts
So that’s what this is really about. Not sure if you’re family or a friend or just a fan of Omar’s but enough of the nonsensical Omar Vs Sandy BS. Get over it.
It will definitely be interesting to see what the Mets do with Rosario/Smith (assuming they continue current paths) with both being possibly ready for the big leagues at the same time. With the assumption that Cabrera and Duda are gone I think both will fit in nicely as starters while maybe Cecchini has become the utility guy at that point or I’m still a strong believer in the fact that Flores will excel in that role. It’s awesome that this is something we can even discuss after after little positional talent developed over the last 10 or so years.
I know and Sandoval (until recently) was still successful at the major league level despite having a “weight issue” and he played third base too.
Yes it is. Funny, cause I’ve always liked and had faith in Flores. Still have it, but I’ll admit I’m starting to question whether he will make the neccesary adjustments to thrive. Still think he can but not as confident as I used to be.
I think Cesschini could be a really solid Super Utility guy who could start for extended periods of time. And maybe even would be a starter on another team.
Not family or friend of Omar just a non-alderson fan, and still pissed off we don’t have Fernandez because he thought he was so smart tha’ts why
Good read but I wouldn’t put much stock in what happens in batting practice.