Photo Credit: Allen Greene Photography
While the staff at MMN was compiling their individual lists of the top prospects in the organization, there were many things we considered. Who was the best first baseman? Who was the best hitter? And certainly, who was the best pitcher? With that in mind, in this Roundtable, the MMN staff undertakes the question of who is the best pitcher in the Mets farm system that has yet to make his Major League debut:
Ernest Dove – Justin Dunn
I’m choosing to go with Justin Dunn. I was able to see him pitch last year in a start for St. Lucie Mets. I saw firsthand the lively fastball everyone has been talking about. I also saw a legit slider in the mix, with him still not though fully incorporating his other pitches consistently in games yet. For a guy many have started counting out as a starter he was touching 95-96 through his 85th pitch of the game I attended. I can still see a bright future ahead for Dunn, and whether he becomes an MLB starter or backend reliever bottom line is I see him as the best pitcher in the system that I’ve personally seen with starter potential.
Corne Hogeveen – Thomas Szapucki
If you look at the highest ceiling, I believe the answer should be left-hander Thomas Szapucki. The big lefty has a mid to high 90s fastball, terrific curve, and an improving change. Unfortunately, with his undergoing Tommy John surgery, his development has slowed down. I still hope he will return to his old form. That being said if healthy he has the most potential to be a front of the rotation starter
Ted Klein – Michel Otanez
I’m reaching deep and touting Michel Otanez, who had Tommy John in Fall 2016 but was bumping 94-96 in the Dominican Summer league and touching 97. At 21, he can come back and start developing some good pitches if the velocity returns. He’s got some stuff we haven’t completely seen yet.
Matt Mancuso – Tyler Bashlor
It’s common knowledge that the Mets are not blessed with an exceptional minor-league system. However, the one strength that this system has is a group of talented relievers, led by 24-year-old Tyler Bashlor. For the past two seasons, Bashlor has posted video-game like strikeout numbers with the Columbia Fireflies, St.Lucie Mets, and the Binghamton Rumble Pones. Although he pitched to a 4.89 ERA with St.Lucie this season, his .438 BABIP inflated it. His high-octane fastball is his main weapon and induces many swings and misses. While his secondary pitches still need to develop further, the two pitches should complement each other well in the future.. Along with Adonis Uceta, the duo should be the next pair of amazing relievers to emerge from the Mets system.
Dilip Srindhar – Anthony Kay
Anthony Kay will surprise a lot of people in 2018. The 2016 first rounder is coming back off Tommy John and his changeup and command were well ahead of his draft class. I think Kay could take the steps forward to establish himself as a major league ready pitcher as soon as 2019 given his stuff and control. His along with David Peterson and a Justin Dunn rebound could do a lot to make this system look a lot better in 2018.
Mets Daddy – David Peterson
Sometimes the obvious choice is the correct choice. There is a reason why Peterson was the Mets first round draft pick last year, and there is a reason why he was the only pitcher to make any of the top 100 prospect lists this offseason. He’s good, he’s well polished, and he’s going to get better. Like any Mets pitcher, the real issue is going to be if he’s healthy. Hopefully, the team only limiting him to 3.2 innings last year had the intended effect of limiting the wear and tear on his arm after a long collegiate season. If so, he promises to be a quick riser through the Mets system this year.
Interestingly enough, our staff had widely divergent opinions. Hopefully, this is a positive sign that the Mets have a number of pitching prospects who will one day have a significant impact upon the Major League club. Do you agree with our assessments? Do you have another pitcher we should have considered? We look forward to discussing those pitchers in the comment section.
Mets really need a few of these arms to make it.
Jordan Humphries – best control in system before the injuries and a heavy ball reminiscent of a Brandon Webb.
As much as I love Szapucki, too, the fact that he is out for 2018 muddles the choices. Humphreys too.
Why not just ask who the best pitcher might be emerging in 2018?
Picking Otanez is quite a leap of faith. He’s accomplished nothing so far and had TJS. May we be pleasantly surprised upon his return in 2018.
My top choice as a starter is Peterson, my top reliever is Bashlor, BTW.
Ernest, I hope you’re right on Dunn, who deserves the time in 2018 to show what he’s got in his arsenal.
No one picked Molina – interesting.
Agree. Peterson is just an easy choice and I would pick Molina above Kay.
The headline said “best pitcher”. Not “best arm”, “best stuff”, or “highest ceiling”. Three pitchers who threw a COMBINED TOTAL of just 3.2 innings last season between them and 25 for their careers – all at short-season levels – made the list. But the (AA) Eastern League pitcher of the year does not. Oswalt’s even more dominant teammate also misses the list. But a pitcher who has missed parts of every season as a pro and will not be pitching at all in 2018 is on the list.
I recognize that each writer has his own reasons and justifications for his individual selection. But the unbridled enthusiasm for hyped-but-unproven youngsters on this site has gotten carried away, IMO. I understand that the shiny new toys generate more excitement. But at some point, performance and accomplishment need to be given more weight than potential and speculative media hype.
If you won’t rein in that bias, then perhaps consider making it a point to have each writer select two pitchers – one full-season and one short-season. It would do more justice to the article’s theme, to the readers who come here for info on the system, and the credibility of the article itself.
I can hear what you’re saying but every year in the draft hundreds of guys who will never make the majors are drafted from 40th round up to the first round. People with PAID full time jobs scout these players and fight for them to be taken and believed in.
There can always be a bias in this stuff on sites like ours.
You can go on metsblog every day and read about how wonderful every player, coach, owner and gm are in the organization.
These prospects might all become all stars or all never make it to majors including Oswalt who’s not on here.
I think it’s fun having these debates on here and overall it’s fun talking Mets minor leaguers.
In all likelihood, if the Mets take an arm at 6th overall this June, he’ll be many people’s answer before he throws a pro pitch. I will say that I’m still optimistic Dunn can hone his command. If that happens, the stuff is the most exciting in the system. We won’t have a read on Szapucki’s post TJ stuff for a while.
Justin Dunn only pitched in 20 games with 16 starts in 2017. Was he hurt? What type of injuries? Anything chronic?
Most of the guys selected haven’t pitched much, won’t pitch this year or haven’t pitched well. Bashlor being the exception. Guys like Oswalt, Molina, Conlon won’t get love bc their ceilings aren’t high like the other guys.
He was put on the DL in mid-August. I don’t remember seeing what the injury was, but he only missed a few weeks/starts.
Besides the shorter (140 game) season, there are also an awful lot of rainouts in the FSL. When the double-headers start piling up and you have three or four of those in a week, the pitchers cannot start once every fifth game.
Also keep in mind that he was transitioning from reliever to a starter. He may still be on an innings limit and may have reached it.
Best pitcher = most talent. Imo they aren’t wrong to snub people who have put up numbers in favor of the PITCHERS with the best PITCHES.
Thank you for the insight. I guess 2018 will be an Important season for Justin Dunn. I hope he makes it.
Where do you guys think Kay and Otanez will make their season debuts?
Very intrigued by Kay, and had never heard of Otanez.
Point #1: I don’t disagree that a lower level pitcher with more talent can be rated higher than an upper level pitcher with a better track record – in some cases. But some of these cases reach an unrealistic extreme………. because…… how, exactly, do you determine who has the best pitches? My contention is that there must be SOME body of work upon which to base that judgement. 0 professional innings does not constitute a body of work. 3.2 innings does not. And 21 innings thrown 2 years ago in DSL against 16 years-olds does not.
And yet pitchers with those minimal/lacking credentials represent HALF the list.
I can understand the selections of Dunn – who has pitched for two seasons now, and Szapucki, who’s ceiling has been demonstrated, despite the fact that injuries have limited his playing time. And at least the writer who selected Szapucki made it a point to let us know that “highest ceiling” is, in fact, his criterion. But some of the others just got carried away with over-exuberance over the speculative, educated guess put forth by other publications.
Apparently Keith Law heard Kay was reaching 95 at fall instructs, so that’s an excellent sign. Can Mets coaches help him avoid telegraphing his plus change? If so, looks like we got a live one.
Even though Otanez was an older IFA when he signed, it sounds like he’s still got a ways to go in learning how to pitch. I’d guess he’d go to the GCL.