The Mets have until Friday evening to decide which prospects they want to add to the 40-man roster to protect them from the Rule 5 Draft that occurs during the Winter Meetings. Though that deadline is still in place, it’s been reported that the Rule 5 draft will not take place on its scheduled date of December 9 if there’s a work stoppage.

The Mets currently have 33 players on their 40-man roster so there is room to add a couple of key prospects without getting into a tight roster crunch. Let’s take a look at the top Rule 5 eligible players in the Mets system

Ronny Mauricio and Mark Vientos

Both of these guys are absolute locks to be added to the Mets 40-man roster before the deadline. Mauricio is the Mets no. 3 prospect right now behind Francisco Alvarez and Brett Baty. Mauricio set a career-high with 20 home runs during the regular season between High-A Brooklyn and Double-A Binghamton. The 20-year-old is currently the everyday shortstop for the Tigres del Licey in the Dominican Winter League.

The power-hitting Vientos set a career-high in home runs as well this season, with 25 between Double-A Binghamton and Triple-A Syracuse. He continued to play a majority of his games at third base, but the Mets also gave him exposure to left field (13 games) and first base (11). His 146 wRC+ ranked third in the Mets minor leagues this season.

Jose Butto and Adam Oller

Noah Syndergaard signed with the Angels on Tuesday, Marcus Stroman is going to command a hefty contract on the open market, and there are certainly questions about how much Jacob deGrom will be able to pitch in 2022. That all brings us to Butto and Oller, both right-handed starters. As you can see by the names of the 19 pitchers currently on the Mets 40-man roster, they’re in desperate need of more quality hurlers.

Butto, known for having the best changeup in the Mets system, pitched to a 3.83 ERA in 2021. Though, he pitched much better after his promotion to Double-A Binghamton, with a 3.12 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in eight starts for the Rumble Ponies. He also posted an 11.2 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9 in that span. The 23-year-old ranks as the Mets No. 13 prospect.

Oller, 27, is quite a story to even be included on this list after the Mets acquired him via the minor league portion of the Rule 5 draft back in 2019. He worked as a bartender during the COVID-19 canceled 2020 season before going to pitch in the Australian League during the winter. He then started the 2021 season in Double-A Binghamton posting a 4.03 ERA (3.61 FIP) with an impressive 11.25 K/9 in 15 starts.

The former Pirates draft pick followed that strong showing by posting a 2.45 ERA in eight starts for Triple-A Syracuse. His strikeouts were down (8.8 K/9), but he allowed only one home run and 27 hits in 44 Triple-A innings.

As I mentioned, the Mets’ need for pitching and more specifically starting pitching is obvious, and Butto and Oller are two of the best in their upper minors. Have to imagine the Mets add one of these two guys, with Butto’s age and upside giving him the better chance.

Carlos Cortes and Hayden Senger

I have these two lumped together because I believe they’re the next group of position players that the Mets will consider adding to the 40-man roster. Cortes has experience at second base and the outfield which makes him a potentially useful bench bat. Senger is likely fourth on the Mets catching depth chart right now and his defensive skills could make him attractive in the Rule 5 draft.

Cortes, 24, had 41 extra-base hits in 79 games this year for the Double-A Rumble Ponies. He finished with a .257/.332/.487 slash line in 346 plate appearances, 221 of those plate appearances coming as the leadoff hitter. The left-handed-hitting Cortes crushed righties to a .946 OPS.

The ambidextrous thrower played exclusively the outfield in 2021 (47 games in left field and 17 games in right field) after playing almost exclusively just second base during his first two minor league seasons.

Senger, 24, is known for his defense behind the plate but he was 11% above average offensively in 2021 with his 111 wRC+ between High-A Brooklyn and Double-A Binghamton. In 40 Double-A games, he posted a 101 wRC+ and had a 26.5% line drive rate. He has an above average arm, blocks well, and his receiving is highly regarded as well.

The Mets have James McCann, Tomas Nido, and Patrick Mazeika currently on the 40-man roster, but after that Senger is next on the depth chart.

Bullpen Arms

Right-handers Michel Otanez, Brian Metoyer, Colin Holderman, Bryce Montes de Oca, Ryley Gilliam, Willy Taveras, Tommy Wilson, and Yeizo Campos and lefty Andrew Mitchell are the top relievers from the Mets farm system that are Rule 5 eligible.

Otanez and Montes de Oca are in a category of their own because they’ve both hit over 100 mph before. The downside for Otanez is that he walked 41 batters in 40 innings for Brooklyn in 2021. Montes de Oca was almost as kind with the free passes, issuing 27 walks in 32 innings this past season.

Holderman is the next guy up in terms of velo having hit 99 mph when I saw him earlier this year and has been consistently 97/98 in the Arizona Fall League. The former starter uses a slider around 87/88 that generates a fair amount of swings and misses. Holderman has allowed 10 runs in 9 AFL innings and only pitched in 24 regular season innings.

Metoyer is a player opening eyes in the AFL with one of the best curveballs in the league. The 25-year-old is posting elite spin rates for his curve (averaged 3200 RPMs last start) that are very close to the numbers of Mets reliever Seth Lugo (averaged 3261 rpms in 2021). Also throws a cutter that has hit 96, and he led all full season Mets pitchers with a 36.1 strikeout rate in 2021. Concerning though is his 4.8 BB/9 from the regular season and his 8.1 BB/9 in the AFL.

Taveras led the Mets minor leagues with a 10.00 strikeout to walk rate between three levels in 2021. He finishes his impressive season with three innings at Double-A. His 2.45 ERA finished fourth among Mets full season minor leaguers with at least 30 innings pitched (Metoyer was third at 2.25).

Interesting Position Players

Infielder Wilmer Reyes, outfielder Carlos Rincon, infielder Jose Peroza, outfielder Stanley Consuegra, catcher Nick Meyer, and infielder Shervyen Newton are the position players in the next group of Rule 5 eligible players.

Of this group, Rincon is the closest to majors having hit 10 home runs in 38 Double-A games for the Mets after coming over in the Billy McKinney trade. Reyes had a knee injury that held him out for most of the season, but he’s currently playing in the AFL. Peroza is one of the more powerful hitters in the Mets system, and Consuegra is an exit velo monster that has struggled to stay healthy.

Starting Pitching Depth

Lefty Joshua Walker and right-handers Harol Gonzalez, Connor Grey, and Garrison Bryant all represent upper level starting pitching depth in an organization with little of it currently.

Walker had two starts this season in which he didn’t allow a hit (5 innings and 6 innings) and then also had back-to-back starts where he pitched at least 7 innings of one-hit ball. The back-to-back one-hitters came in Triple-A, but then he posted a 6.10 ERA over his final six starts of the season. Walker doesn’t get much above 90 mph on his fastball, turns 27 years old next month and his strikeout rate was 5.90 per nine innings in Triple-A. MLB Pipeline does have Walker as the Mets No. 16 prospect right now.

Grey started the season pitching for the Chicago Dogs in Indy ball and is now pitching in the AFL. In the AFL, he has a 3.00 ERA with only 15 hits allowed and 17 strikeouts in 18 innings. The 27-year-old tops out at 94, but has a terrific curveball that has been his go-to pitch since signing with the Mets.

My Breakdown

We know that Mauricio and Vientos are locks to be added to the 40-man roster, which brings that number up to 35. I believe the Mets ultimately add four prospects (max being five) to the 40, so that gives me probably only two more spots to work with. In that case, I’m adding a hitter in Carlos Cortes and a starting pitcher in Jose Butto.

If the Mets decide to go with a fifth player that’s where things get very interesting. Maybe in the past, it would’ve been Senger, but teams have stayed away from drafting catchers in recent years. Maybe they go with another starter in Oller or one of the top relievers in Metoyer or Holderman. Or maybe even a dark horse in outfielder Carlos Rincon given their bad depth at the position.

All said and done, I believe the most likely scenario is the Mets adding Vientos, Mauricio, Butto, and Cortes.

Check out the recent deep dives we’ve done on Cortes and Butto.