MMN Top 40 Prospects: No. 33 Allan Dykstra

By Satish Ram

October 21, 2013 5 Comments

2014 Top 40 Prospects

33.  Allan Dykstra, 1Ballan dykstra by gd

Height: 6’5

Weight: 215

DOB: 5/21/87 (Age: 26)

Bats/Throws: Left/Right

Hit: 45/45 Power: 45/55 Arm: 40/40 Field: 50/50 Speed: 35/35

It is a tough task to write up Allan Dykstra — I like him and I do not like him at the same time. It sounds childish, I am aware, but I will try to explain. Dykstra was drafted in 2008, the same as our friend Ike Davis, and had the tools to become a solid first baseman. Offensively, he walked… a lot — which meant Paul DePodesta was immediately interested and used his ’11 first rounder on Dykstra. Fast forward to today, and Dykstra ended up in the Mets organization after being traded for Eddie Kunz. He enjoyed his best year after some coaching in Binghamton, batting .274/.436/.503 in 489 plate appearances with 21 home runs and 82 RBI. He walked 102 times, but struck out 123.

So what is the real deal with this guy? He has a great eye at the plate — that has not changed — but he is victimized by the length of his swing. This also leads to a seriously unhealthy amount of strikeouts, including 100-strikeout seasons in each of the four of them where he has had over 400 plate appearances. In addition, although he always had enough raw power to hit about 20 home runs in the MLB, he struggles to tap into it — and banging out 21 in Double-A Binghamton is nice, but he’s still yet to even touch Triple-A in what will be his age-27 season.

Outlook: At this point, it’s almost safe to call Dykstra a non-prospect, but he got a little extra rope. The reason being is that the Mets are dreadfully shallow at first base, and Dykstra will be making the move to Triple-A Las Vegas for 2014. That means he might see a chance to play with the MLB team sooner rather than later — and honestly, weirder things have happened in baseball than a late bloomer after a change of scenery. Dykstra has a lot working against him, however, and his strikeout rate is probably the biggest issue. If he can stop striking out at such a high clip and perhaps put the ball in play more, he might be able to sustain a .260 average in the majors with 15 home runs or so, but I am not sure if I would count on it.

MMN Top 40 Prospects

40. Jhoan Urena

39. Patrick Biondi

38. Chris Flexen

37. L.J. Mazzilli

36. Miller Diaz

35. Hansel Robles

34. Robert Gsellman

33. Allan Dykstra

(Photo Credit: Gordon Donovan)

  • B-Met Fan

    Satish, I have similar feelings about Dykstra. He does have a great eye and hit equally well against right handed and left handed pitching this summer. Dykstra has a habit of diving in at pitches that increases his strikeout total. Part of Dykstra’s success this summer came from batting behind Cesar Puello. Dykstra’s numbers took a nosedive after the All-Star break when he hit only .209. That included a .235 average in July and a .189 average in August. Obviously, he had some out of the park numbers before the All-Star break.

  • Steve B

    Dykstra and Ike Davis were both drafted in 2008, not 2011. That was a very silly and obvious error Satish, I know you’re better than that.

  • Ah, I slip every now and then. Thanks for pointing it out — I made the change.

  • Geoff

    On the surface, I would agree with you that being 26 and still in AA screams out journeyman not prospect. But I’m holding off on that judgement in Dykstra’s case.

    Keep in mind that Dykstra missed more than half of 2012 with an injury, or he might have posted these #s that year and gotten promoted to AAA in ’13.
    After a great start in ’13, he got hurt again and missed a few weeks just as the Mets were starting to move players around – another missed opportunity for him to get promoted.
    By the time he got back, Ike Davis, and then Lou Duda were taking up the playing time at Vegas, thus blocking Dykstra’s path. And finally, after Duda was called back up to the Mets, the organization had made a decision not to disrupt the Binghamton roster before their playoff push.
    Its worth noting that Dykstra was hitting .395 with a 1.015 OPS in Venezuelan winter ball, which MLB scouts regard as being between AA and AAA. Unfortunately, he broke his leg and may not (or might barely) be ready for spring training.

    But if Dykstra manages to get off to a good start at AAA, its very plausible that if the Mets trade Duda or Davis, and the other one continues to flub, Dykstra could get a look sometime in August as a platoon partner with Josh Satin

  • Veronica Renteria-Bocanegra

    Dykstra has worked hard and &has earned his spot/chance in the majors. Plus they need a consistent good patient player like him. A change at first base would be great and may be just what they need