The 2023 MLB First-Year Player Draft will take place on Sunday, July 9 in Seattle. Due to going $40 million over the competitive balance tax threshold, the Mets went from having the 22nd pick in Round 1 to having the 32nd pick in the Competitive Balance A portion of the draft.
While it is a unknown as to who the Mets will take with that first pick, we can take a look at some past history of the pick in general and see which kind of players New York can get with that first selection.
For starters, this is only the second time that the Mets will pick 32nd in the draft. The only other time came back in 1983 when the franchise selected Dave Magadan in Round 2 out of Alabama. Magadan would make his MLB debut in 1986 and had a slash line of .292/.391/.386 with 21 home runs and 254 RBIs in 701 career games (7 seasons).
Magadan’s 21.1 career WAR is the second-best among any player ever taken with the 32nd pick. The only other player that has a higher career WAR with that pick according to Baseball Reference is another New York outfielder. That would be Yankees right fielder Aaron Judge (32nd pick in 2013) with a career WAR of 39.4.
If you look at the most recent history of the pick dating back to 2012, six players that have been selected 32nd have made their debut (including Judge). Four of those six have a positive WAR in their career up to this point. That would be Judge, Blue Jays right-hander Jose Berrios, Pirates third baseman KeBryan Hayes, and Dodgers catcher Will Smith.
Even though the CBA prohibits the Mets from picking inside the Top 25 of the draft, they do still have a chance to grab a player that can make an impact down the road as the organization looks to build up the rest of the farm system.
In addition, out of the last six players selected with the 32nd pick, it has been a good mix of either a collegiate player or a high school/prep school player (three each). If you look at the total bonus pools, the Mets have $8,440,000 in their pool and $2,607,500 to spend on that pick. Two players have signed for around that amount in recent years (Nick Loftin with the Royals in 2020 – $3 million and Ty Madden with the Tigers in 2021 ($2,500,000).
While the MLB Draft is an inexact science, the recent decade has shown the Mets have had more success than most identifying future major leaguers. With that comes a chance to find a player that can help their organization.
