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BA: Conforto #2, 3 Mets in the Florida State League Top 20

By Teddy Klein

September 29, 2015 3 Comments

michael-conforto

Today John Manuel of Baseball America released their top 20 prospects in the Florida State League. Of the 20, 3 Mets were ranked in the top 20 at #2 Michael Conforto, #7 Amed Rosario and #14 Dominic Smith.

This is what Manuel had to say about each:


2. Michael Conforto, of, St. Lucie (Mets)

Age: 22. B-T: L-R. Ht: 6-1. Wt: 215. Drafted: Oregon State, 2014 (1).

Conforto and the Cubs’ Kyle Schwarber ranked as the top college bats available for the 2014 draft, and both have zoomed to the major leagues as key lineup pieces for contending teams in 2015. Schwarber streaked through the FSL last year; Conforto did it in the first half of 2015, leading the league with six intentional walks in just 46 games.

Conforto intimidated opposing managers and pitchers alike with a balanced, strong swing that is short to the zone and long through it. He covers the plate and doesn’t get cheated, yet keeps his swing under control, using his hands well. Conforto has improved defensively as a pro and has solid arm strength but likely is limited to left field.

“He uses his hands very well for a young hitter,” a scout with a National League club said. “He has a good setup, has some rhythm and is always ready to do damage.”

While Amed Rosario was ranked highly, the bat report wasn’t too thrilling.

7. Amed Rosario, ss, St. Lucie (Mets)

Age: 19. B-T: R-R. Ht: 6-2. Wt: 170. Signed: Dominican Republic, 2012.

The Mets believe so strongly in Rosario’s glove that they sent the teenager to Double-A Binghamton for the Eastern League playoffs when Gavin Cecchini got hurt.

Rosario’s bat is far from ready for Double-A; he merely survived offensively in the FSL. His swing has some length, he’s prone to chase breaking balls and he lacks strength. However, he has some bat-to-ball skills, showed signs of improving his approach, and his plus speed will help him leg out hits and be a factor on the bases.

Scouts don’t need to project Rosario as a special defender because he’s already there. He slows the game down, makes the routine play look routine and has the arm strength and range to make spectacular plays of all kinds. His arm and range earn easy plus grades as well.

Though they did defend Rosario’s offense in context, (though they didn’t mention he was the youngest player in the league) in the post-ranking chat:

Jack (Staten Island): How can Ahmed Rosario be a top prospect with such poor offensive numbers? What do scouts see in him?
John Manuel: It’s all about context, Jack. The entire league didn’t hit. the league slash line was .248 – .313 – .337. Rosario, as a 19-year-old, was basically at league average, and his defense is elite. Scouts like the swing, the defensive tools, the age, the quiet confidence he plays with … There’s work to do. He’s not going to play in Queens next year, barring a significant jump in his strength and offensive game in the short term. But long-term, this guy’s going to be a big league regular at shortstop.

Dominic Smith’s weight still worries Baseball America, despite being player of the year in the League as a young player with good power to Left-Center as a left-handed bat

14. Dominic Smith, 1b, St. Lucie (Mets)

Age: 20. B-T: L-L. Ht: 6-0. Wt: 185. Drafted: HS—Gardena, Calif., 2013 (1).

It was a tale of two seasons for Smith, who some scouts wrote off early in the season for being out of shape and out of time at the plate. Scouts and opposing managers and coaches questioned his desire to work hard because his pregame routine showed little evidence that he cared enough to grind through a season.

But the 2013 first-round pick adjusted, reducing his leg kick to get his foot down sooner at the plate and letting his natural hitting timing take over. The ball comes off Smith’s bat well and as he learned to pull the ball, his gap power began to play. He led the FSL in doubles (33) and RBIs (79) and ranked third in slugging (.417). He has excellent plate coverage and hangs in well against southpaws. He’s also nimble around the first-base bag, has the arm strength to initiate double plays and grades as a future plus defender with a bit more polish.

Nevertheless, Smith must watch his weight and show he can grind it out over a full season, and he currently lacks the profile home-run power for a first baseman. A poor baserunner, he led the league in grounding into double plays.

One person in the chat asked Manuel for a comparison for Dominic Smith:

Sandy (Queens): Is Dom Smith the next Adrian Gonzalez or is he James Loney 2.0? Any confidence 20+ homer power is in his future?
John Manuel: Much closer to Loney than Gonzalez for me, and I like Dom. I do not have confidence in a 20-homer future, no. He’s got to clean up the body, but he can hit, he has some juice and he can defend at 1B. He just has to take care of his body more, but I am heartened by his second-half adjustments and improvements.

Some thoughts:

  • Manuel mentioned that offense was down in the league, so Smith’s showing was impressive, and Rosario’s was okay.
  • Conforto did very well in the Florida State League. He had a slight adjustment period, but after that, he just flew away and became a staple for the Mets.
  • As I mentioned before, Rosario was the youngest in the Florida State League, and he was top 5 in Doubles and hitting in the .260’s when he went down with a wrist injury, and wasn’t the same after that, which killed his batting average and strength. He likely still needs to fill out a little, but it is encouraging to know he has elite defensive skills, considering scouts were hesitant before about his ultimate position.  He gets a pass for this year, next though- he does not. He will play in the Dominican Winter League for the Cibao Aguilas,
  • Smith still has some weight issues, but let me make the point that if Smith is a low-homer, high double guy who can drive in just as many runs and stay fairly consistent, that would be just fine, especially with his first base defense. He plays in the Arizona Fall League for the Salt River Rafters
  • Just from a personal side, it’s nice to see that all 3 of these guys are playing Mid-October Baseball, and especially Conforto, on the Major League team.
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