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BA Says Dominic Smith Could Hit 15 Homeruns In MLB

By Michael Mayer

November 12, 2015 3 Comments

Photo by MiLB.com

Photo by MiLB.com

 

Two weeks ago Baseball America released its Top 10 list of Mets prospects and you can read my breakdown of it here. Matt Eddy of BA then did a chat where he answered some questions about the list and here are some tidbits from it:

  • Michael Fulmer (traded for DET) would have ranked #2 after Steven Matz. John Gant (traded to ATL) and Casey Meisner (traded to A’s) could have factored in the 6-10 range.
  • Jhoan Urena (switch hitting 3B prospect) did get consideration for the Top 10 and will stick at third base despite suffering a hamate injury this year. Some sources they talked to argued that Urena should be in Top 10.
  • Said Robert Gsellman has good control but doesn’t miss enough bats, likewise with Gabriel Ynoa. With Ynoa having the better control of the two.
  • Scouts gush about Ali Sanchez (C, GCL & Kingsport Mets) defensive ability, but his bat will take some time to develop-possibly a long time.
  • In three years, Matt said he thought Amed Rosario would be Mets shortstop with Wilmer Flores at second base.
  • Dash Winningham (1B, Kingsport) has a great name and impressive power but a rigid swing that might be exploited as he moves up.
  • Luis Guillorme (SS, Savannah) has good feel for the barrel and hitting the ball where it’s pitched, but watch to see if he keeps hitting when the walks dry up at higher levels.
  • I have L.J. Mazzilli (2B, Binghamton) ranked in the 21-30 range right now. Scouts I talked with like him enough to project him to a utility INF or second-division regular.
  • John Mora (OF, Savannah) has a nice well-rounded game with plus speed, a LH bat, a good glove and enough gap power (and legs) to record his share of doubles and triples.
  •  Adonis Uceta (RHP, GCL Mets) could be a year away from being a top 30 guy. He throws a plus mid-90s fastball and a nice changeup.
  • Regarding Rosario: cut some of the loop out of his swing, but he has impact potential with his glove, speed and on-base ability, so power won’t be crucial for him to develop to be a frontline shortstop.
  • I’m not ready to give up on Brandon Nimmo (OF, Las Vegas) as a starter yet, but it looks increasingly like he will be more top-of-the-order hitter than thumping run producer.
  • I’m coming around on the notion that Dominic Smith (1B, St. Lucie) can hit at least 15 HR in the majors. His natural power stroke takes the ball to left-center field, but he did pull about half of his HRs to right field this year, and that rate can only improve with pro experience.
  • Milton Ramos (SS/2B, Kingsport) showed better offensively in 2015 than he did in his draft year. He uses the middle of the field and can drive the ball the other way at times. Defensively, he has been a bit more error-prone than expected, but he will probably be more consistent at higher levels.

Eddy does a great job of covering questions from the top all the way to the bottom of the Mets system. I will disagree with him about Flores being the Mets 2B in three years. I think that will be Dilson Herreras‘ spot for a long time assuming he is healthy and not traded.

If Smith does hit 15 homeruns in the Majors he will be an above average first baseman because he is a plus defender and should hit a lot of doubles as well.

I thought Mazzilli looked a lot more athletic this year when playing defense at second but he showed virtually no in-game power at all when I saw him. Already 25-years old and missing time for a suspension last year really hurt him.

Mora is one guy that you are going to start to hear more about, doesn’t do anything that wows you but does everything right. Athletic to boot and a solid defender.

I think he is a little down on Gsellman, I watched him pitch numerous times this year and one thing that stood out is that no one gets the barrel on the ball against him. I know his strikeouts numbers are low but as he develops his curveball they will increase.

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