We are in full swing prospect talk time of the year and Baseball America has been releasing numerous new pieces daily over the last week including their Top 100 which we talked about here.
Here are few Q&A’s from BA’s Top 100 Prospect chat:
Was it questions whether Cecchini can stick at short that left him off the list? If I told you he solved his throwing yips, where would he rank?
John Manuel: Not sure, because the offensive impact isn’t special either. He was in the 130-140 range on our ballots. I see him as being fairly similar to Zack Cozart eventually; I actually think he has a bit better contact ability but less power than Cozart, who I would categorize as a solid average SS at his best.I'm a Mets fan not sure what to make of Dom Smith. Would it be fair to say his 25% outcome is James Loney, and his 75% outcome is John Olerud? Does he have a chance to be better than Duda??
J.J. Cooper: I’d say his 25 percent outcome is more of a Triple-A first baseman than Loney. There’s some risk with Smith. The body is bad at an early age and he’s shown little of the power you expect from a first baseman. Smith can really hit and even as a bad-bodied first baseman he is excellent defensively. Both Loney and Olerud had much better bodies/athleticism than Smith. If the power develops he could be somewhere between Loney and Olerud but if the body gets worse and/or the power doesn’t pick up, he’s also got a decent chance of not being a big league regular.
I’m not sure I follow Manuel on the Gavin Cecchini comparison to Cozart on either side of the ball. Cozart is a far superior on the defensive side while Cecchini puts the ball in play more and is willing to take a walk. Cecchini realized during the season that his throwing was becoming an issue both mentally and physically and worked on it with the Binghamton coaching staff.
BA also listed their Top 100 right-handed pitching prospects with two Mets minor leaguers making the list, Marcos Molina at #69 and Gabriel Ynoa coming in at #90. The talented Molina makes the list despite having Tommy John Surgery this offseason which will force him to miss the entire 2016 season. I am a bit surprised that Ynoa made the list and ahead of Mets pitching prospect Robert Gsellman. To me, Gsellman is now clearly the Mets 3rd best pitching prospect behind Steven Matz and Molina.
They also named their Top 100 lefties with Matz at number three behind Julio Urias (#1) and Blake Snell (#2), the same order MLB Pipeline had those three pitchers.
Uhh..not sure I agree with what Cooper and Manuel are saying here.
At the AA level Cecchini had a .819 OPS at age 21. Cozart had a .758 OPS at age 23. I think Cozart is a better SS defensively but I think Cecchini can be better offensively.
In regards to Smith I have not seen one report that doubts his future to be a big league regular. The Mets have told Smith not to focus on hitting home runs which I agree with. Power is often the last tool to develop for prospects. In regards to his “bad body,” looking at pics of him this Winter he looks to be in shape. I think he will be fine.
Ya I didn’t understand the Cecchini comparison either, very little similar between those two in my opinion. He does look like he is in better shape not that I think that is as big of an issue as some have portrayed. Some say his body looked bad in the AFL but at the same time said he was one of the better overall prospects there.
Yea Smith was hitting like a monster on the AFL. I think the “bad body” thing is over played. Besides, even if he is not in the best shape; look at guys like Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder. They don’t exactly have the best figure yet they have had great careers as first basemen.
And the gurus realize that too, I think they are more worried about the body getting worse and thus hurting his play.
I guess we will see. I think he will break out this year in terms of the power potential.
I agree on the power, the combination of maturing and finally having a home park that isn’t pitcher friendly should see a boost in homeruns. I would guess 12-15.
I am not understanding the AFL bad body talk either, Hyde and Manuel both said he looked in better shape this year compared to previous seasons.
BA did only have 1 RHP among their top 10 Mets prospects. Molina #6 overall; though that was before TJS was announced. Just a guess that Gsellman doesn’t miss enough bats for BA. Funny thing is Ynoa’s k rate is on downward trend as well, though he doesn’t walk batters either.
Law seems to be the one that said he looked bad, body wise in AFL. But everyone else I talked to raved about how he looked on the field there.
I like bad body types in some players. Not a SS or CF’er, but guys with bad body types have to be great hitters. Like John Kruk. It’s not like speed is bad, but it often can cover up hitting weaknesses. Remember Willie Wilson in ’80 WS vs the Phils? So, Smith leading his league in doubles is great sign, in that he’s not relying on speed to accomplish it. For that matter on body type, how great is Conforto’s? Kind of short and squatty, no? Who cares?
I agree that the bad body talk for Smith is being a bit overblown but him and Conforto are not working with the same body. Conforto definitely has more muscle tone and better foot speed.
Honestly I am a little surprised at the lack of people jumping on board the Gsellman train. I think the biggest issue is some of these websites (BA/BP) don’t always get to watch the guys first hand, Gsellman to me looks much better in person than on paper. Kind of like deGrom did when he was coming up through.
Cozart (preinjury) is one of the best defensive SS in the NL. Cecchini looks like he has a better idea as to what he wants to do at the plate too.
My Dom Smith happy medium has been Sean Casey whose 162 average was .302/15/85
Exactly with Cozart, pretty much the opposite type players really. I have started hearing the Casey comparison more now and think it is a good one. Hopefully Dom never gets thrown out on a “single” to left field.
To me Olerud is vastly underrated and more like a 99 percentile
Agreed, always loved watching him play. Wish he was with the Mets longer.
I’m not getting the constant criticism of Dom’s body…he just looks like a big kid to me…he’s a 1B, this isn’t a physique contest. ..kid’s got a beautiful swing and can really pick it at 1B, I don’t see a problem at all
According to what I read (and based upon his performance), he put on a lot of weight two winters ago and it impacted his 2014 performance in a big way. He apparently worked out quite a bit the ensuing winter and consequently had a much better year last year. That said, he’s still a big guy. Some people just battle weight issues and he has all the makings of someone who will do so, which can impact his LT viability and performance from season to season. I’m only going off pictures and what I’ve read, but I think people see Sandoval/Fielder/Sabathia type of weight issues/body type as a real possibility.