Using the KATOH Projection System in conjunction with other forecasting systems, Fangraphs has released their list of the Top 20 prospects in the Mets farm system. Fangraphs analysis of the Mets farm system was:
This crop of talent is about average in terms of depth compared to the orgs we’ve reviewed so far, but quite sneakily has five top-100 candidates up top, including one of the best prospects in baseball. It’s an underrated lot, overshadowed within the city and division by superior systems. The lifeblood of the Mets farm is their Latin American program, which has yielded not only one of the most exciting prospects in baseball but a steady stream of talent throughout the entirety of the system.
Below is the Top 20 prospects in the Mets farm system as judged by Fangraphs with their accompanying grade on the 20-80 scouting scale and Mahalanobis Comps where applicable:
#1 SS Amed Rosario
2016 Level: St. Lucie & Binghamton
2016 Statistics: 120 G, 479 AB, 65 R, 155 H, 24 2B, 13 3B, 5 HR, 71 RBI, 19 SB, .324/.374/.459
Fangraphs Grade: 65
Mahalanobis Comp: Hanley Ramirez
#2 RHP Robert Gsellman
2016 team: Binghamton, Las Vegas, MLB
2016 MILB Stats: 20 G, 4-9 W/L, 3.99 ERA, 20 GS, 115 IP, 113 H, 58 R, 51 ER, 31 BB, 88 K, 1.25 WHIP
2016 MLB Stats: 8 G, 4-2 W/L, 2.42 ERA, 7 GS, 44.2 IP, 42 H, 12 R, 12 ER, 15 BB, 42 K, 1.27 WHIP
Fangraphs Grade: 55
Mahalanobis Comp: Aaron Cook
#3 1B Dominic Smith
2016 Level: Binghamton
2016 Statistics: 130 G, 484 AB, 64 R, 146 H, 29 2B, 2 3B, 14 HR, 91 RBI, 2 SB, .302/.367/.457
Fangraphs Grade: 50
Mahalanobis Comp: Adrian Gonzalez
#4 RHP Justin Dunn
2016 Level: Brooklyn
2016 Statistics: 11 G/8 GS, 30 IP, 1-1 W-L, 1.50 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, .227 BAA, 35/10 K/BB, 1 HR
Fangraphs Grade: 50
#5 SS Andres Gimenez
2016 Level: DSL Mets
2016 Statistics: 62 G, 214 AB, 52 R, 75 H, 20 2B, 4 3B, 3 HR, 38 RBI, 46 BB, 22 K, 13 SB, .350/.469/.523
Fangraphs Grade: 50
#6 CF Desmond Lindsay
2016 Level: Brooklyn
2016 Statistics: 37 G, 122 AB, 21 R, 37 H, 6 2B, 4 HR, 17 RBI, 26 BB, 31 K, 3 SB, .303/.433 /.451
Fangraphs Grade: 45
#7 LHP Thomas Szapucki
2016 Level: Kingsport & Brooklyn
2016 Statistics: 9 G, 52 IP, 4-3 W-L, 1.38 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, .145 BAA, 86/20 K/BB, 2 HR
Fangraphs Grade: 45
Mahalanobis Comp: Jeremy Hellickson
#8 C Thomas Nido
2016 Level: St. Lucie
2016 Statistics: 90 G, 344 AB, 38 R, 110 H, 23 2B, 7 HR, 46 RBI, 19 BB, 46 K, .320/.357/.459
Fangraphs Grade: 45
Mahalanobis Comp: Ryan Doumit
#9 OF Brandon Nimmo
2016 Level: Las Vegas & MLB
2016 MLB Statistics: 32 G, 73 AB, 12 R, 20 H, 2B, HR, 6 RBI, 6 BB/20 SO, .274/.338/.329
2016 MiLB Statistics: 97 G, 392 AB, 72 R, 138 H, 25 2B, 8 3B, 11 HR, 61 RBI, 46 BB/73 SO, 7 SB, 8 CS, .352/.423/.541
Fangraphs Grade: 45
Mahalanobis Comp: Grady Sizemore
#10 SS Gregory Guerrero
2016 Level: DSL Mets
2016 Statistics: 64 G, 287 AB, 32 R, 61 H, 10 2B, 30 RBI, 28 BB, 51 K, 10 SB, .247/.324/.287
Fangraphs Grade: 45
#11 2B Gavin Cecchini
2016 Level: Las Vegas & MLB
2016 MiLB Statistics: 117 G, 499 PA, 446 AB, 71 R, 145 H, 27 2B, 2 3B, 8 HR, 55 RBI, 4 SB, .325/.390/.448
2016 MLB Statistics: 4 G, 7 PA, 6 AB, 2 R, 2 H, 2 2B, 2 RBI, .333/.429/.667
Fangraphs Grade: 45
Mahalanobis Comp: Carlos Guillen
#12 1B Peter Alonso
2016 Level: Brooklyn
2016 Statistics: 30 G, 109 AB, 20 R, 35 H, 12 2B, 3B, 5 HR, 21 RBI, 11 BB, 22 K, .321/.382/.587
Fangraphs Grade: 40
#13 RF Wuilmer Becerra
Level: St. Lucie
B/T: R/R Age: 10/01/1994 (22) Age Dif: -1.7
2016 Statistics: 65 G, 247 AB, 27 R, 77 H, 17 2B, HR, 34 RBI, 9 BB/52 K, 7 SB, .319/.341/.393
Fangraphs Grade: 45
Mahalanobis Comp: Angel Echevarria
#14 LHP Josh Smoker
2016 Level: Las Vegas & MLB
2016 MILB Stats: 52 G, 3-2 W/L, 4.11 ERA, 57 IP, 66 H, 26 ER, 18 BB/81 K, 1.47 WHIP
2016 MLB Stats: 20 G, 3-0 W/L, 4.70 ERA, 15.1 IP, 16 H, 8 ER, 4 BB/25 K, 1.30 WHIP
Fangraphs Grade: 45
Mahalanobis Comp: Greg McMichael
#15 SS Luis Guillorme
2016 Level: St. Lucie
2016 Statistics: 123 G, 441 AB, 16 2B, 2 3B, HR, 46 RBI, 47 R, 43 BB, 63 SO, .263/.332/.315
Fangraphs Grade: 40
Mahalanobis Comp: Geoff Blum
#16 RHP Merandy Gonzalez
2016 Level: Brooklyn
2016 MiLB Statistics: 6-3, 2.87 ERA, 14 G, 14 GS, 69.0 IP, 1.33 WHIP, 9.3 K/9
Fangraphs Grade: 40
Mahalanobis Comp: Roy Oswalt
#17 RHP Marcos Molina
2016 Level: St. Lucie Mets (2015)
2015 MiLB Statistics: 1-5, 4.57 ERA, 8 G, 7 GS, 41.1 IP, 1.452 WHIP, 7.8 K/8
2016 AFL Statistics: 0-0, 3.78 ERA, 7 G, 2 GS, 16.2 IP, 1.380 WHIP, 4.3 K/9
Fangraphs Grade: 40
#18 CF Ricardo Cespedes
2016 Level: Kingsport Mets
2016 Statistics: 56 G, 227 AB, 30 R, 73 H, 4 2B, 3 3B, HR, 16 RBI, 9 BB/36 K, .322/.356/.379
Fangraphs Grade: 40
Mahalanobis Comp: Juan Encarnacion
#19 UTIL Luis Carpio
2016 Level: GCL Mets & Brooklyn Cyclones
2016 Statistics: 20 G, 74 AB, 7 R, 15 H, 3 2B, 3B, 3 RBI, 9 BB, 21 K, .203/.314/.270
Fangraphs Grade: 40
#20 RHP Paul Sewald
2016 Level: Las Vegas
2016 Statistics: 56 G, 65.2 IP, 5-3 W/L record, 19 SV, 3.29 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 80 K/21 BB
Fangraphs Grade: 40
Mahalanobis Comp: Randy Wells
Other names considered by Fangraphs, in order, were LHP Anthony Kay, INF T.J. Rivera, RF Edinson Valdez, C Ali Sanchez, RHP Harol Gonzalez, RHP Chris Flexen, RHP Andrew Church, CF Anthony Dirocie, CF Champ Stuart, RHP Daison Acosta, SS Colby Woodmansee, RHP Michel Otanez, OF Raul Beracierta, RHP Nabil Crismatt, 1B, Jhoan Urena, and 3B David Thompson
Reviewing the list, the Fangraphs model and analysis seems to be more aggressive in their rankings of minor league relievers than MMN has been.
A perfect example of this was the disparity between the rankings in Smoker and Sewald. As these prospects progress and move towards the major leagues, it will be interesting to see how well the KATOH System is at projecting these minor league players.
Well, I just don’t know what they are thinking. To start, where’s Buccerra’s name? Are they kidding me?
Next, why is Smith, who pitched in high school and throws 94 have an average arm?
Lindsey is also given a raw deal.
Zapucki was given below average control, but the guy has never had issues.
Just rediculous. I’m sorry I had bated breath for them. If Fangraphs is putting five guys in the top100 but the system is average overall, speaks volume for how they feel about the remaining players on the list.
The comp for Szapucki is Jeremy Hellickson.?????????? We need to get those computer nerds out of their mother’s basement and have them actually watch a baseball game. Stop screaming for more meatloaf and embrace the beautiful game Ridiculous.