Tonight is Major League Baseball’s annual draft. The draft will begin at 7 p.m. on MLB Network and can be seen on MLB.com. The Mets will be picking 12th overall tonight and they will $8,224,600 to work with. Here is a link for the full draft bonuses.
The heavy consensus seems to indicate it will be a college player. Specifically, a college pitcher. The college pitchers who have been connected to the Mets the most are George Kirby, Zack Thompson, Alek Manoah, and Jackson Rutledge.
Of these four, Kirby and Thompson seem to be the heavy favorites with some steam heading towards Kirby. Manoah is far and away the best option of the four but the odds of him being on the board when the Mets pick seem slim. His stuff is much better than Kirby and Thompson’s and his command is much better than Rutledge’s. Rutledge can run it up to 99 MPH, has a slider with good horizontal movement, and a curveball with 12-6 movement. The only problem is his command otherwise he would probably be going in the top-10.
Here is a run down of the four pitchers who the Mets seem likely to take.
Zack Thompson
Thompson has a solid four pitch repertoire. His fastball is in the 92-94 range and touches 96. His slider and curve both get swings and misses and his changeup has consistently improved. None might jump off the page but he has a lot of comfort using all four pitches whenever he wants and has solid control of those pitches. His ceiling won’t get that much higher though and he’s someone who is destined to be a mid-rotation arm. Nothing wrong with that, number three starters in baseball are quite valuable. I would liken him to someone like Anthony Kay or David Peterson. Both guys seen as solid lefties who would be seen as third or fourth starters. The Mets might be able to cut a deal with Thompson to save money for their later picks.
The problem has been his health. He had shoulder problems in high school and actually failed his physical with the Tampa Bay Rays. He also missed two months last year with an elbow injury. Kentucky has also left him in for 120-130 pitches this season. The Mets have not been scared to draft players with health risks but they might not be as eager to do so with their first selection.
George Kirby
The Mets picked him in the 32nd round of the back in 2016. Roberto Correa wrote a great writeup on Kirby so I’ll just let him explain Kirby’s makeup: “Kirby is a four-pitch pitcher with a smooth, repeatable delivery, and very clean arm action. The 6′ 4″ 201-pound righty features a plus fastball that he locates well to both sides of the plate. Sitting about mid-90’s and touching 97, his fastball is his best offering, he does also throw a mix of curveballs, sliders, and change-ups. His change-up has been his most consistent secondary offering, and has solid downward bite. While his curve and slider have been considered a work in progress, there has been some noted improvement in his slider.”
Kirby seems like a Mets pick. A work in progress who has shown good stuff but not too big of a risk and allows them the flexibility to have an aggressive second round pick. They also like re-drafting guys. Carlos Cortes and Anthony Kay jump out as the two most recent ones.
Jackson Rutledge
Every draft seems to have a player like Rutledge. He can touch 99 with his fastball, makes people look silly with his slider, and can call his curve a respectable third pitch. From a Baseball America article, he changed his diet and workout routine to help him become to the first round talent that he is today.
The achilles heel for him is that he still does not have great command these pitches but if some team finds a way to get him to show better command, then they will reap huge benefits. The Mets tend to do well developing pitchers but Rutledge could be a big challenge, something they might not be very interested in taking on.
The ceiling of Rutledge is undeniable. If he can even show average command, then there is a very good chance that he will be the best pitcher in this draft. That alone might be worth taking him but it needs to be the right team to take him and the Mets could very well be that team. Rutledge is such an enigma that he can go anywhere from 7-20 in this draft.
Alek Manoah
Manoah is the best of these four pitchers. He possesses a fastball, slider, changeup combination, all three of which are average-to-above average pitches. The fastball sits 94-97 with movement and he has good control of his slider which has made him emerge this spring.
He’s still new to starting but the early results have been very promising. He has a much higher ceiling than Thompson and a much higher floor than Rutledge. For those reasons, it seems very unlikely that he will be around for the to select Mets tonight. If for some reason he is and his medicals are clean, then the Mets should be sprinting to the commissioner’s podium to draft him.
Photo by Michigan Athletics
Later Targets
The Mets will also be picked 53rd overall tomorrow night in the second round. The Mets have taken some very young and high ceiling, high school players in each of the last two second rounds. The one before that was some guy who is now competing for Rookie of the Year. The draft will then continue on Tuesday, at 1 p.m. and the Mets will be picking 89th overall on that day. Here are some stabs at who the Mets could be looking at those picks.
He seems like a third round target more than a second round but his profile is intriguing nonetheless. From Baseball America, “He can play all three outfield spots, and his plus arm fits in right field. Brewer’s swing can get too long and he swings and misses too much because he occasionally expands his strike zone, but he stings the ball when he connects and he has some pull-side power to left and left-center field.”
His 18% strikeout rate is probably the reason he is not going higher. His upside is a regular center fielder with the ability to hit 25 homers a year. The Mets could use a few more athletic outfield prospects after trading their best one for Robinson Cano.
A work in progress but has very impressive raw power. He slugged .828 this past season and has tremendous bat speed. He has some swing and miss in his game but his power is so intriguing, especially for someone in the third round (if he lasts that far). He seem like a good bet to in left field, which makes his offensive profile even more enticing.
McConnell would be a second round pick. His power and speed combination for a shortstop is the reason why he is going so high in the draft. He could very well produce 20-25 home runs in his future while also having some very good base running skills. His future might not be at short but the very fact he is there now speaks to his athleticism. He was mocked to the Mets in a Mock recently but lasting until 53 might not happen at this rate.
The Mets drafted him as a pitcher late last year. His arm strength is quite impressive and his offensive profile is limited by a lack of power. It might be interesting to see if the Mets take him again in the fourth round with the intention of making him a pitcher once again.
Jimmy Lewis
Lewis has a very projectable 6’6″ frame pitcher. His fastball touches 95 and his curveball and changeup are still improving. The Mets seem like a team who could take him and give some extra money in order to steer him away from Louisiana State. He seems like the perfect candidate for the Mets to work with and add extra velocity. In many ways, he would be reminiscent of Simeon Woods-Richardson.
Final Thoughts
I will not be able to cover the draft this year so I went all in on a 1,500 word primer. The draft will be covered on MMO and MMN. The picks from rounds 1-10 will be on both MMO and MMN. Rounds 11-40 will be on MMN exclusively. Just for fun, here are my predictions for tonight: The Mets will draft George Kirby tonight around 8:15 p.m. and then take someone who will cost a bit more than the slot in round two.
