Can you smell it? The outfield grass, bristling in the sun. Can you feel it? The thawing of the last winter cold, or the rough seams on the baseball. Can you hear it? The crack of the bat.

Wait…was that aluminum?

If you’re a Mets player or coach preparing for the season down in Port St. Lucie, that certainly isn’t a part of the spring symphony of a budding new baseball season.

But for the team of area scouts, crosscheckers, and directors that make up the Mets heralded Amateur Scouting Department, those sounds of high school and collegiate ball players putting their metal bats to good use might as well be angels singing from heaven above.

And I say the department is deservedly heralded because, well, take a gander at the Mets roster this season that is projected to win 90-something games by the major public projection systems. The vast majority of the team consists of either players drafted by this regime, or players who were acquired in exchange for such draftees.

But if putting two and two together here isn’t happening, Sandy Alderson was happy to make sure this simple fact was recognized and rewarded this winter.

Not only were there high level internal promotions of former West Coast Crosschecker Drew Toussaint to National Hitting Supervisor, and Steve Barningham to Director of International Scouting, but the Mets were also able to coax top Florida Area Scout Jon Updike back into the fold, after he took most of the Van Wagenen Era away to do some amazing things at the cutting-edge baseball data software company, BaseballCloud. These are first-hand signs of a healthy and robust department.

So yes, that time has finally come for the Mets scouting contingent to canvass the high school and college fields all over the nation. COVID wreaked havoc on the ability for these road warriors to do what they do best for the better part of the last year, cancelling many seasons and showcase circuits, forcing team evaluators to rely on video more than usual for last season’s abridged draft format.

Finally, Mets evaluators have to be ecstatic to be back out their with their radar guns and notepads. But much pandemic-induced uncertainty still lies ahead.

Typically, this is the time of year that amateur evaluators are chasing down their carefully decided, high-priority follows and scavenging for late pop-up guys. The ability to have created this strong base to work off of was directly stymied by the pandemic, and it remains to be seen how the Mets will adapt.

One notable feature of this year’s draft class is the perhaps unprecedented level of talent that has flushed into the Junior College (JUCO) talent pool. Due to the severely abridged nature of the 2020 draft, many talented high school ball players decided to go to a JUCO for the quickest route to reenter the draft pool, due to current draft eligibility rules. Some of these players could become very important follows, as Trackman data is less readily available in this demographic. A big decision that Tommy Tanous and Marc Tramuta, heads of the amateur draft operation, likely have to make is how to allocate their resources and in-person manpower, as opposed to relying on shared Trackman data and video.

Okay, okay, the names. Who might the Mets pick at No. 10?

Just one last tease, then let’s get into it.

The Mets were this close to not having a second round pick this year! Alderson thought he practically had a verbal agreement with Trevor Bauer, who was extended a Qualifying Offer (QO) by the Reds, which would have cost the Mets their second round pick under the current Collective Bargaining Agreement, not to mention $500K in international pool money.

Alderson, while trading away recent draft picks in Josh Wolf and Isaiah Greene to help the big league roster in a huge way, has also stated his desire to build back the farm system after his predecessor tried his best to lay it bare.

The Mets picking 10th overall, and then again in the second round, in a draft of still undetermined number of rounds will go a long way for the Mets, as opposed to if they had forfeited that second round pick and accompanying slot allotment.

While it is a complete fools errand to guess who the Mets might pick with their second round selection at this time, there is a pool of names forming who will likely constitute the Mets draft board when they go on the clock with the 10th overall pick.

Let’s get one thing out there first. There are a bunch of first round talents this year amongst the high school pitching demographic. The Mets also haven’t drafted a prep arm with their first pick since they picked Scott Kazmir twenty years ago. So as fun as it is to dream on Andrew Painter, Thatcher Hurd, Jackson Jobe and the likes, it’s probably not a safe bet that any of these guys become Mets in July.

The Mets have the opposite tendency with high school bats though, using their first pick on one in each of the past three drafts. And there are a bunch of exciting names out there who could make sense in the 10 spot.

Guys Who Will Play on the Dirt

One of the hallmarks of the top of this draft class are the four exciting prep shortstops: Kahlil Watson, Jordan Lawler, Marcelo Mayer and Brady House.

While a few of these standouts could be gone by the time the Mets are on the clock, any one of them could ostensibly fall to their pick.

According to Fangraphs The BOARD, Watson might have the best bat speed in the entire draft class, and to go with plus speed and infield actions, might be the highest upside bat in the draft. The below clip, courtesy of Prospects Live, will give you a glimpse at the tantalizing rotational ability Watson possesses.

 

Lawler provides a well-rounded defensive and offensive toolset, including a strong likelihood to stick at shortstop and advanced hit tool. House features the biggest raw power of the bunch, while Mayer is more defense and hit tool driven.

Outfielders with Big Tools

Is raw power your thing? You’ll love IMG Academy’s James Wood, whose big left-handed swing below allows him to harness the immense power in his 6’6 235 pound frame. Check out Wood’s frame and swing, courtesy of 20-80 Baseball’s look at the 2020 Area Code Games.

Like power, but love speed? Tyree Reed has the tools galore to be an impact center fielder on both sides of the ball.

Now, if the Mets don’t fall in love with one of these young prep bats, what’s the next likely demographic they are always looking hard at? You know it,

College Pitching

Sorry, Jack Leiter and Kumar Rocker simply won’t be on the board at 10. But Texas has a hard-throwing right-hander by the name of Ty Madden, who features a strong frame, mid 90’s velocity and flashes a plus slider as his feature bat misser.

Kansas State has a modern prototype lefty named Jordan Wicks, who features an extremely vertical fastball and a plus changeup. If he’s able to show enough fastball velocity to convince teams it will play at the highest level, he could be in play.

Other hard throwing, big framed college arms with first round buzz include Wake Forest’s Ryan Cusick, Auburn’s Richard Fitts, and Ole Miss right hander Gunnar Hoglund. Whoever shows sustained mid 90’s velocity, ability to locate, and/or newly improved feel for a changeup this spring could easily insert himself right into the conversation at 10.

Finally, there are a couple of accomplished bats with big-conference performance track records, and these are always hot commodities on draft day.

College Bats

Could Florida’s Jud Fabian slide to the very end of the top 10? After putting up big conference numbers and the power/speed combo to be an impact center fielder, it’s pretty hard to fathom. But there is some swing and miss in his right-handed swing, and perhaps just enough teams picking at the very top of the draft could decide to go another route.

More likely college hitters in the Mets range include Miami University catcher Adrian Del Castillo. Del Castillo boasts very strong contact skills and average raw juice, but lacks impact defensive skills behind the dish.

On the other hand, Louisville’s catcher Henry Davis boasts a big time arm, to go along with plus raw power. College catchers with a strong hitting track record tend to have ample suitors in the first round.

Speaking of Louisville, Davis’ teammate, Alex Binelas has the hit tool/ACC track record to have teams in this range looking at him as a potential everyday big league third baseman.

While this really just touches the iceberg of names that will be on the Mets early draft board, if the Mets want to continue to optimize their early draft picks, it’s going to have to go beyond the reports of their lower level and upper level scouts and decision makers.

In today’s uber-competitive player development landscape, the organizations that are bringing their pro-level development people into the draft room are setting themselves up to truly optimize their drafts. The Mets new Executive Director of Player Development, Kevin Howard, whether actively in draft discussions or not, will ultimately be responsible for helping amateurs make changes as they strive to reach the next level.

Tommy Tanous and Marc Tramuta will undoubtedly be looking at some talented players who have a swing that doesn’t currently work, or a delivery that needs refining, or needs a new changeup grip that kills spin. Knowing exactly what types of fixes the pro development team has experience and success with, and executing a draft strategy accordingly, could be a key determinant as to whether even a first round draftee reaches his ceiling.

But alas, spring seasons are still just beginning. So enjoy that sound of aluminum bats barreling up baseballs, as we begin to dream of another successful crop of new Mets.