The New York Mets added more top prospect talent to their farm system at the trade deadline. This December, they will hope to get lucky in the MLB Draft lottery as they try to add more impact players via the MLB Draft.
On Wednesday, the odds were set for the upcoming lottery, which will take place at the 2023 MLB Winter Meetings in Nashville, Tennessee on December 5.
Right now, the Mets have a 4.3% chance of getting the top pick, which is the seventh-highest odds of any team (A’s, Royals, and Rockies each have a 18.3% chance). The goal for the Mets in this lottery is to end up with a top-six pick.
If the Mets pick ranges from 7-18 in the 2024 MLB Draft, their selection will drop ten spots since the team went over the surcharge tax threshold in 2023. However, if New York does finish in the top six, their second-highest pick would be moved back ten spots.
Since 2004, the Mets have only had a top-six pick twice. Those picks were RHP Philip Humber (third overall pick in 2004) and OF Jarred Kelenic (sixth overall pick in 2018). The Mets did draft Matt Harvey seventh in 2010, but seven would be an unlucky number for New York this time around.
The Mets are the only NL East team in the lottery. Despite finishing last in the same division, the Washington Nationals are not eligible for a top ten pick because a payor club can’t be picked in back-to-back lotteries (second overall pick last year). Due to that reason, their first-round pick will likely not be any higher than the tenth pick.
Therefore, if the Mets kept their pick, they would have the chance of jumpstarting any of the NL East organizations for elite talent.
Laat year’s inaugural lottery was a big example of how the luck of the draw can impact a franchise. The Pirates were tied for the best odds to land the top pick and were the lucky winners and got the chance draft LSU RHP Paul Skenes. Meanwhile, the A’s ended up picking sixth.
Teams can also leapfrog their way up from low odds as is the case with the Twins last year (13th best odds, and they selected fifth).
As fans will watch whether or not the Mets land a big free agent in Nashville this winter, the lottery could be the best win for the organization long-term if they can somehow land a top-six pick in this year’s draft.
