According to the recently released odds, the New York Mets have a 4.3% chance at the top overall pick in the June 2024 draft. This will be the second draft lottery in MLB history, and it will occur on December 5 at 5:30 P.M.
The draft lottery was instituted in the last collective bargaining agreement. Every team who missed the postseason has an opportunity to win the lottery.
Per the rules, the three worst teams have equal 18.3% chance to win the lottery. Equally distributing among the worst three was an effort to prevent tanking (as is the institution of the lottery itself).
The teams with the best chance at the top pick are the Oakland Athletics, Kansas City Royals, and Colorado Rockies.
From there, there is decreasing percentage odds in an inverse relationship to a team’s record. The San Francisco Giants have a 1% chance with the Cincinnati Reds, San Diego Padres, New York Yankees, Chicago Cubs, and Seattle Mariners having less than a 1% chance.
The Mets have the seventh best odds of landing the top pick, and that is partially because the Washington Nationals won the second overall pick last season. Due to the size of their market, the Nationals are not permitted to be a part of this year’s lottery and cannot pick higher than tenth.
For the Mets, it’s vitally important to finish with a top six pick. Per Christopher Soto, the Mets odds of landing a top six pick are 35.7%.
Due to the aforementioned collective bargaining agreement, teams with a top six pick do not face any penalties regardless of payroll. If you finish seventh, you are subject to draft penalties.
Due to the Mets having the largest payroll in US professional sports history, they’re subject to draft penalties. Should they lose the lottery and not garner a top six pick, their draft position will drop 10 spots.
We saw that happen last season. After losing in the Wild Card Series, they were slated to pick 22nd. However, because they surpassed the luxury tax threshold, their first pick was 32. They used that pick up select SS Colin Houck.
It is more than just drafting later. With a lower pick comes less bonus pool money.
Last year, the sixth pick had a slot value of $6.634 million. The 17th pick had a slot value of $4,169,700. That’s roughly $2.5 million less to use to draft players. That difference is equivalent to a first round supplemental pick.
Having less bonus pool money available would restrict the Mets ability to draft players who want more money. It could also harm their ability to entice players to forgo their collegiate commitments. That goes double in the NIL era.
The MLB draft lottery will significantly impact not only who David Stearns can draft with his first pick as the Mets president of baseball operations, but it will also impact who he can draft in later rounds. All told, this lottery will significantly impact the future of the Mets franchise.
