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Mets Top Prospects by Position: Starting Pitching

By Matt Mancuso

March 14, 2024 No comments

Over the last 12 months, the Mets have made major strides in developing quality Minor League depth throughout their farm system. The emergence of Christian Scott and Mike Vasil, among others, have helped the club shore up the biggest weakness in the club’s farm system.

In The Bigs

Kodai Senga, Jose Quintana, Luis Severino, Sean Manea, Adrian Houser, Tylor Megill

Given recent injuries to Kodai Senga and David Peterson, the Mets’ rotation depth has taken a step back this spring. In his second MLB season, Senga was expected to anchor the staff. His role will now be passed to crafty southpaw Jose Quintana, who is expected to start Opening Day for New York. Sean Manaea, Luis Severino, and Adrian Houser are expected to fill in the two-through-four slots while the fifth slot is up for grabs. Though Tylor Megill is laying a stake to it with a quality spring.

Jose Butto is the only pitcher on this list with MLB time, however, that is expected to change in 2024. Mike Vasil reached Triple-A for the first time late last year and is on the short list of arms that the Mets are expected to use for depth purposes in 2024. Given their 2024 progression, Scott, Vasil, Hamel, and Jarvis all have a chance to reach the bigs this season.

Christian Scott, Photo by Ed Delany of Mets Minors

Prospects On The Farm

1. Christian Scott

Age: 24
Height/Weight: 6’4″, 215 lbs
Acquired: 2021 MLB Amateur Draft, 5th round
2024 MMN Prospect Rank: 5th

A Florida Gators product, Christian Scott came out of nowhere to emerge as a legitimate top-100 prospect in 2023. The righty flourished throughout the season, pitching to a 2.57 ERA across three levels.

Prospect pundits, most notably Fangraphs’ Eric Logenhagen, have praised his slider, which he utilized the grip from Max Scherzer‘s offering. Logenhagen also noted that Scott toyed around with a change-up throughout the season, which could help round out his arsenal. His fastball only touches the 94-95 mph range, but it plays up due to Scott’s impressive extension.

He consistently peppers the zone with his heater, finishing 2023 with the highest K/BB% in the Minors in 2023. His control is very highly regarded, as his 69% strike percentage finished fourth in the Minors.

Scott is expected to start the season in Triple-A.

2. Mike Vasil

Age: 23
Height/Weight: 6’5″, 244 lbs
Acquired: 2021 MLB Amateur Draft, 8th round
2024 MMN Prospect Rank: 10th

The Mets’ eighth-round selection in 2021, Vasil has quickly risen up the minor-league ranks. While at Virigina, Vasil didn’t dominate, similar to the predicament many Virigina hurlers face, but with the Mets, Vasil’s velocity ticked up a few notches to his current mid-90s range.

He started the 2023 campaign at Binghamton, but after just ten strong starts, Vasil was given the nod to start for Triple-A Syracuse. In only his seventh start with Syracuse, Vasil lost a no-hitter going into the ninth.

However, it wasn’t able to replicate that success throughout the entire time with Syracuse, posting a 5.30 ERA over 16 starts. Vasil should be one of the Mets’ first calls, should the club need to dip into their minor-league starting pitching depth in 2024.

Blade Tidwell, Photo by Bronson Harris of the Binghamton Rumble Ponies

3. Blade Tidwell

Age: 22
Height/Weight: 6’4″, 207 lbs
Acquired: 2022 MLB Amateur Draft, 2nd round
2024 MMN Prospect Rank: 12th

At the outset of the 2022 draft campaign, Tidwell was seen as a rock-solid first-round pick. However, injury concerns slid him down the draft board, down to the 52nd pick.

Over 25 starts in 2023, Tidwell hurled 116 innings en route to a 3.57 ERA and 1.293 WHIP.  Along with Jett Williams, Tidwell was brought up to Binghamton for the stretch run in 2024, posting a 4.72 ERA over eight starts.

Sam Dykstra of MLB.com recently profiled Tidwell in his September edition of the Prospect Pitching Line, where Tidwell talked about the changes that have been made to his arsenal since his selection by the Mets. Going more granular, New York has revamped the right-hander’s fastball and slider over the last 18 months. Tidwell’s fastball gained more spin efficiency, with an average of 18 inches of induced vertical break (IVB).  Meanwhile, his slider has been revamped into a sweeper, which works better in conjunction with his curveball and change-up.

Tidwell should kick off 2024 as the ace for the Binghamton Rumble Ponies.

4. Dominic Hamel

Age: 24
Height/Weight: 6’2″, 237 lbs
Acquired: 2021 MLB Amateur Draft, 3rd overall selection
2024 MMN Prospect Rank: 14th

The Mets’ selection of Dominic Hamel in their third round of the 2021 draft was a byproduct of their incorporation of analytics in their draft decision-making process. Hamel’s strong VAA on his fastball drove the Mets to select him & he followed that lofty draft pick with a 3.85 ERA over 25 starts in 2023. To conclude his season, he hurled 7 2/3 strong innings to clinch the Eastern League pennant.

Hamel’s another high-floor, low-ceiling pitcher that has grouped in the upper levels of the Mets’ system. He’s expected to start in the upper-minors of the system in 2023.

5. Brandon Sproat

Age: 23

Height/Weight: 6’3″, 175 lbs
Acquired: 2023 MLB Amateur Draft, 2nd round
2024 MMN Prospect Rank: 15th

The Mets’ selection of Sproat in the third round surprised some draft pundits after Sproat became the highest such pick in the draft not to sign in 2022. Sproat elected to return to Florida for 2022 and, with his permission, the Mets selected him at the 56th pick the following season. Florida is not well-known for developing their pitching talents, so the jury’s still out on what Sproat can develop into.

His arsenal, which consists of a four-pitch mix, is highlighted by a devastating slider and a changeup that causes bats to whiff. Sproat has a solid fastball with the ability to hit over 100 MPH but generally sits in the 94-98 range. He has also continued to develop a curveball, but it remains a work in progress. He currently possesses middle-of-the-rotation upside. Sproat looks to kick off 2024 with the St.Lucie Mets.

Tyler Stuart, Photo by Jim Rassol-USA TODAY Sports

6. Tyler Stuart

Age: 24
Height/Weight: 6’9″, 250 lbs
Acquired: 2022 MLB Amateur Draft, 6th round
2024 MMN Prospect Rank: 21st

Coming into the season, Stuart was projected to be fast-tracked to the Majors as a reliever. However, he broke out in 2023, establishing himself as one of the top pitching prospects in the Mets system.

Stuart had a dominant first half, posting a 1.42 ERA through June. As a result, he was quickly promoted to the Binghamton Rumble Ponies. His arsenal is headlined by his sinker, which plays up due to his extension and height, similar to Tylor Megill‘s.

After finishing the season with the best ERA in the Minors, Stuart will be given every chance to finish his development as a starter.

7. Calvin Ziegler

Age: 21
Height/Weight: 6’0″, 205 lbs
Acquired: 2021 MLB Amateur Draft, 2nd round
2024 MMN Prospect Rank: 22nd

After a leg injury knocked out the first half of his 2023 campaign, a shoulder malady knocked out the remainder of his season.

When healthy, Zeigler’s arsenal consists of a high-octane fastball that gives hitters fits. During his last healthy season, Zeigler had a 13.5 K/9, which bodes well for his future.

Zeigler is considered fully healthy, at the moment, set to start the 2024 season with St.Lucie.

8. Jose Butto

Age: 25
Height/Weight: 6’1″, 202 lbs
Acquired: 2017 IFA Period
2024 MMN Prospect Rank: 25th

Coming into 2023, Butto was expected to serve as a depth piece for the Major League Club. Coming into 2024, the right-hander will fulfill a similar role. Butto hurled 42 Major League innings in 2023, finishing the campaign a few innings shy of rookie eligibility.

In a season where the Mets’ starting pitching is no sure thing, Butto could emerge as a significant piece of the 2024 rotation, especially considering David Peterson recently underwent hip surgery. In 2024, he’s expected to fill a similar role to his 2023 campaign.

Button combined his mid-90s fastball with an impressive change-up that has given MLB hitters fits.

https://twitter.com/PitchingNinja/status/1701742661546230142

9. Justin Jarvis

Age: 23
Height/Weight: 6’2″, 175 lbs
Acquired: Acquired in exchange for Mark Canha, July 2023
2024 MMN Prospect Rank: 27th

The return in exchange for Mark Canha, Jarvis didn’t enjoy the same success for New York that he experienced in Milwaukee in the first half of the season in 2023. Jarvis faltered in the second half of the season with New York, hurling an 8.04 ERA over nine starts. Although the Mets left him exposed in the Rule V draft, Jarvis was not selected.

His profile is similar to that of most of the arms on this list—he’s a high-floor, mid-to-back of the rotation arm. Jarvis remains MLB-quality SP depth for the 2024 club.

10. Luis Rodriguez

Age: 21
Height/Weight: 6’3″, 219 lbs
Acquired: Signed during 2019’s IFA period
2024 MMN Prospect Rank: 32th

Rodríguez is a sleeper pick for the 2024 season. After signing in the 2019 IFA period, Rodriguez quickly underwent Tommy John Surgery, which knocked him out of the 2022 and early 2023 seasons. When healthy, Rodriguez was throwing a mid-90s fastball and an average slider. Fangraphs just mentioned him as a potential top-100 arm as soon as 2025.

The Mets will limit his innings this season, but he represents an intriguing arm in the lower level of the Mets’ system in 2024.

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Written by MMancuso

I'm a recent alum of TCNJ, where I graduated with degrees in business and technology. At MMO, I write data-driven player breakdowns, as well as, cover the Mets minor-league system. Follow me on at https://twitter.com/MattyCuso.

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