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Mets Top Prospects for 2022: No. 9 Dominic Hamel

By Daniel Muras

March 10, 2022 No comments

9. Dominic Hamel, RHP

B/T: R/R  Age: 23 (3/2/99)
Ht: 6’2  Wt: 206 LBS
Acquired: Drafted in the 3rd round of the July 2021 Amateur Draft
ETA: 2024  Previous Rank: N/A
Stats (FCL Mets): 0-0, 0.00 ERA, 2 G, 2 GS, 3.0 IP, 0.000 WHIP, 0.0 BB/9, 21.0 K/9

After taking Kumar Rocker with the first pick of the July 2021 Draft, the Mets were expected save their bonus pool by spending the rest of the draft loading up on college seniors who would take underslot deals. Upon first impression, Hamel appeared to fill this role nicely.

Hamel, a senior out of Dallas Baptist University, was eligible for the draft for a fourth time with 2021 being his first selection. However, that initial impression would have been mistaken, as Hamel ended up signing for slot value of $755,300 and enters the 2022 season as the top prospect from this draft class. This is largely because of the Mets’ failure (or unwillingness) to sign Rocker, of course, but it also speaks to the unique skills that Hamel brings to the organization.

After high school, Hamel attended Yavapai College, where he had two very solid, if unspectacular, seasons before transferring to Dallas Baptist for his junior year. His junior season was cut short by the COVID-19 pandemic after just four starts, but even in that small sample size, his 12.4 K/9 gave an indication of the pitcher he was about to become.

With a full season in 2021, Hamel finally had his breakout. His ERA was a bit high at 4.22, largely due to a rough 1.6 HR/9, but his 1.113 WHIP evidenced his great ability to limit hits. The number that really stood out, however, was his 13.4 K/9. This translated into a school-record 136 strikeouts. Nobody else in the conference even touched 100 for the season.

After being drafted by the Mets in July, he was limited to just three innings of work in the Florida Complex League, due to the full 91.2 inning workload he experienced during the college season. He only faced nine batters, the vast majority of whom were younger than he was, but his ability to miss bats was taken to another level. In his three perfect innings, Hamel struck out seven of the nine batters he faced.

From a scouting perspective, Hamel does not fit the mold of the standard elite strikeout pitcher. At 6’2″ and 206 lbs., his build is quite average for a pitcher. His fastball averaged just 92.5 MPH in 2021, topping out around 96 MPH. And, unlike someone like Shane Bieber, who utilizes elite command to get tons of strikeouts, Hamel’s command is an area that still has plenty of room for improvement.

While conventional modes of scouting would have little explanation for his success, outside of saying that his stuff has good “life” to it, modern analytics provides a few hints as to what has been working for him. This conversation has to start with his fastball, which is exceptional despite its lack of velocity. According to Fangraphs, his fastball spins at an average of 2450 RPM, a well above average number which puts it in line with the fastballs of Jacob deGrom and Matt Allan. It also has strong spin efficiency, allowing it to carry above bats when thrown up in the zone.

An excellent article on Baseball Cloud explains the effects of this great ability to spin the baseball as the ball approaches the plate. To summarize briefly, due to both his spin rates and relatively low release point, Hamel not only gets exceptional vertical movement on his fastball, but also has a vertical approach angle (VAA) that is much closer to zero degrees than the average pitcher. A VAA closer to zero means that the ball does not drop as much as a batter comes to expect from a normal fastball, leading them to swing through it or weakly pop it up. It is for these reasons that Fangraphs says that the pitch has the potential to be a 70 or plus-plus pitch for Hamel, one that will carry him in whatever role he takes in the majors.

While the fastball is the star of the show for Hamel, the rest of his arsenal is still quite worthy of praise. There seems to be some debate whether his curveball and slider are two separate pitches that can blend together sometimes or whether they are actually the same pitch. The former usually comes in to the plate in the mid-70s while the latter sits in the low-80s.

Both also have quite high spin rates, averaging around 2800 RPM and occasionally touching 3000 RPM. That average spin rate is among the highest in the Mets system and is just a touch below the spin rates that guys like Walker Buehler and Adam Wainwright get on their breaking balls. The great movement of his breaking balls can be seen in the video below. Fangraphs evaluates both as one pitch (a slider), and rates it as a plus pitch. Hamel’s changeup is far and away his weakest pitch. He throws it only occasionally and it is currently below average.

Mechanically, Hamel throws from a high three-quarters arm slot. He makes good use of his legs in the follow through of his delivery, featuring a long stride that gives him good extension towards the plate and may also contribute to his fairly low release point. It does appear to be a somewhat high-effort delivery and, especially from the windup, there does seem to be some extraneous movement in his mechanics, although apparently his delivery was cleaned up a bit in 2021 to address this latter concern. Both issues could lead to some of the command issues that he has experienced in the past.

Already 23 years old and with an advanced arsenal, it seems likely that Hamel will be pushed aggressively through the system. High-A Brooklyn is the most likely destination for him to start the 2022 season, with the possibility of a promotion to Double-A Binghamton midseason if he can continue to be the strikeout machine that he has been for the last two years.

It should be assumed that Hamel will start out as a starting pitcher, but the combination of command issues and lack of a strong offspeed pitch could eventually push him into the bullpen, where he could become an exciting multi-inning reliever. If he can solve those issues, then it is easy to see Hamel as a future number 4 starting pitcher in the not-too-distant future.

Mets Top Prospects 29-30
Mets Top Prospects 27-28
Mets Top Prospects 25-26
Mets Top Prospects 23-24
Mets Top Prospects 21-22
Mets Top Prospects 20 Eric Orze
Mets Top Prospects 19 Hayden Senger
Mets Top Prospects 18 Jaylen Palmer
Mets Top Prospects 17 Adam Oller
Mets Top Prospects 16 Jake Mangum
Mets Top Prospects 15 Carlos Cortes
Mets Top Prospects 14 Joel Diaz
Mets Top Prospects 13 Calvin Ziegler
Mets Top Prospects 12 Simon Juan
Mets Top Prospects 11 Jose Butto
Mets Top Prospects 10 Nick Plummer

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Written by Daniel Muras

I fell in love with the Mets during the 2006 playoff run and became obsessed with the Mets minor league system while looking for a brighter future during the 2009-2014 era. I hope to provide interesting analysis of the minors and am excited to have the opportunity to write for MMO and MMN.

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