I hear there are going to be some pretty big festivities out in Denver soon, what with Shohei Ohtani, Pete Alonso and others set to take on Coors Field in a home run derby, for starters.

But for those of us who follow the draft and minor leagues, not to mention the scouts and evaluators who poured their heart and energy into evaluating amateur talent all year round, this Sunday at 7 p.m. ET out in Denver will mark that most glorious and exciting time of year: the start of the three day long Rule 4 Amateur Draft.

As we all remember, last year’s unprecedented and impromptu five round draft left all kinds of chaos in it’s wake. Hundreds of would-be professional baseball players were not able to be drafted, causing an overflow of amateur talent to pour into future draft cycles.

But with the nation still in much uncertainty throughout last spring, summer and fall, not only were most 2020 high school and college seasons cancelled, but the elite summer wood-bat collegiate league in Cape Cod was canned, as were some of the top-end high school tournaments and showcases.

Normally, all of this live competition is where MLB team evaluators would look to add to their scouting card rolodex, and teams would be able to acquire large samples of Trackman and Rapsodo data to feed into their computerized draft models.

More events came back as time went on, such as the 2021 amateur seasons going off without much of a hitch. But much data and eye-ball looks were still missing, and teams still had to tinker with what data and which information to weigh most in a still very unconventional draft cycle.

On to the 2021 draft itself, the length will be twenty rounds, with recommended bonus slots for the first ten rounds, creating a soft bonus pool cap. As usual, teams can exceed their bonus pool cap by no more than 5% without incurring steep penalties, including the loss of future picks. The Mets total bonus pool allotment for the 2021 draft has been calculated at $9,026,300, the 13th largest pool of the 30 MLB clubs. The Mets own the 10th, 46th and 81st overall selections, then selecting every 30 picks thereafter for a total of 20 selections. Let’s take a closer look at the draft class as a whole.

General Features of the 2021 Draft Class

The common refrain has definitely been that this year’s collection of draft talent is a bit light at the top, especially highlighted by a relative dearth of clear-cut, first round caliber college bats.

With a below-average amount of data and track record with which to base decisions due to the aforementioned reasons, and a seemingly down talent pool at the top, the way the first round is set to play out remains more obfuscated than usual.

The Names

The most famous names of the draft cycle, Vanderbilt right-handers Kumar Rocker and Jack Leiter are in the mix to be drafted at the very top, along with Louisville catcher Henry Davis and a slew of prep bats, namely Marcelo Mayer, Jordan Lawlar, Khalil Watson and Brady House.

But due to the increasingly common practice of deviating from league recommended bonus slot values, there are endless scenarios where teams picking ahead of the Mets in the top 10 take a lesser player in an attempt to save pool money for splurges on high-end talent with later picks.

For this reason, it’s not impossible to see big names like Kumar Rocker or Brady House slide and still be on the board when the Mets are up to pick at 10.

Then again, the Mets themselves could also be looking to “take a haircut” or go under-slot with their first pick. Indiana prep shortstop Colson Montgomery has been heavily linked to the Mets in this draft, as first reported by Michael Mayer.

With Montgomery getting more and more helium throughout the last month in draft circles, he has priced himself into 1st round territory, and it has been speculated that the Mets could look to use their first pick on him, likely at a steep bonus pool discount.

So with Montgomery being the hotly rumored haircut pick for the Mets at 10, and the not-impossible idea that top 5 talents like Rocker or House fall to the Mets pick, that leaves the more likely scenarios, and the many outlets have mocked a handful of names to the Mets, almost exclusively from the college ranks.

We spent our draft prep time here at MMN looking at these names: UCLA shortstop Matt McLain, Texas right-hander Ty Madden, and Boston College center fielder Sal Frelick.

Along with these three players having garnered the most speculation to be high on the Mets board for their first pick, it’s been thought that the Mets could look at Miami-Ohio’s right-hander Sam Bachman, who comes armed with an upper 90’s to triple digit turbo sinker and a wipeout power slider, but lingering questions about his delivery and long-term viability to remain a starting pitcher.

Another bat the Mets have been gently linked with is Sam Houston State center fielder Colton Cowser, who brings a broad base of offensive and defensive skills and great performance at a mid-major program, but questions about level of competition faced and the likely ceiling given his still nascent tool-set and frame.

Tying it Together

Finally, as we get our draft parties ready for the Sunday-Monday-Tuesday affair, keep a lookout for the interplay and balance the Mets strive for with the totality of their first few picks.

Money spent over-slot or near-slot at 10 lessens the number of things the Mets would be able to do at 46 and 81, and vice-versa.

There is said to be an exceptional amount of quality talent in the later rounds of the draft, with what would normally be the rounds 3-5 talent range being exceptionally deep. Having pool money to offer up in these later rounds could help add multiple legitimate upside talents to a regrouping and retooling farm system.

Then again, there could be big-upside talents that Mets evaluators are in love with and have a high price tag, but unexpectedly fall, whether that be at pick 10 or pick 46. Is there someone the Mets can’t resist but give a huge chunk of the pool to?

Whether it’s Chase Petty, Jaden Hill, Jackson Baumeister or Lonnie White Jr. to name a few, there will be down-to-the-wire, behind-the-scenes negotiations with player agents and temptations will be abound to go for broke if the price is right.

The time is finally drawing night for the drama to unfold. Keep it locked to @Mets_minors and @Metsmerized as we will keep you fully covered for what is sure to be an unpredictable Mets draft if there ever was one.