Brett Baty/Photo by Allen Greene Photography
5. Brett Baty, 3B
B/T: L/R Age: 21 (11/13/1999)
Height: 6’3″ Weight: 210 lbs
ETA: 2023 Previous Rank: 6
Acquired: First Round Pick, 2019
Stats (2019): 228 PA, 65 K, 35 BB, 44 H, .234/.368/.452, 7 HR, 33 RBI
Baty is very much like his fellow farmhand, Mark Vientos. Both have a lot of raw power and both are much better known for their offensive production rather than their defensive ones. The reason why Baty makes the top-5 over Vientos is because he has a better chance at playing third base than Vientos does.
FanGraphs had this to say about Baty’s physique: “Not only has Baty kept his body in check but it’s actually better now than it was in high school.” MLB.com had something similar to add about him by saying “he showed improved agility and more speed last summer at the alternate site.”
Offensively speaking, Baty’s biggest strength aside from his raw power is his feel for the strike zone and his plate discipline. MLB.com did raise some concerns that his bat path might lead to a high number of swinging strikes but hopefully that can be corrected before it impedes him.
The key to Baty’s future will be whether or not he can play third base. His offensive profile does not particularly standout at first base but he could be a well above average regular at third. There are also concerns about Baty’s age. He was an older prep player and he’s already 21 with no full professional season under his belt. Ultimately though, if he hits and moves quickly, those concerns will go away quickly.
Baty will start the season in High-A with the Brooklyn Cyclones.
Pete Crow-Armstrong/Photo by Perfect Game
4. Pete Crow-Armstrong, CF
B/T: L/L Age: 19 (3/25/02)
Height: 6’1″ Weight: 180 lbs
ETA: 2024 Previous Rank: 7
Acquired: First Round Pick, 2020
Stats: N/A
Crow-Armstrong is generally seen as an elite defensive center fielder with very good speed as well. He made some top-100 prospect lists over the winter and that is why he moved up into the top-5 rankings for the Mets.
His profile seems like someone who will surely be a major league player in some capacity. His glove and speed are always highly valued off the bench so at the minimum, he will be a great fourth outfielder like Juan Lagares or Albert Almora. His bat will be what sets him apart. Keith Law of The Athletic says he has a good feel but he does have some swing and miss tendencies in his game. According to MLB.com, “his contact level and bat speed are sharp enough to make the hit tool an above-average skill.” FanGraphs does think his swing is more geared towards breaking balls than high fastballs.
Judging by his profile, I think he might be someone who needs to change his swing in order to get more production. He has not played a professional game yet but the results this year will be a bit more telling as to where his offensive profile would currently land. I think the Mets will be slower with him than they might be with Baty because Crow-Armstrong can certainly use some more time to figure out his offensive ceiling.
Crow-Armstrong will begin the season with the Low-A St. Lucie Mets.
Matthew Allan, Photo by Ed Delany of MMN
3. Matthew Allan, RHP
B/T: L/L Age: 19 (3/25/02)
Height: 6’1″ Weight: 180 lbs
ETA: 2023 Previous Rank: 7
Acquired: First Round Pick, 2020
Stats (2019): 10.1 IP, 2.61, 14 K, 5 BB, 1.452 WHIP
Allan feels like he has become a household name among Mets fans by now. They essentially pulled a rabbit out of a hat by drafting him in the third round and now they have a top-100 prospect on their hands who’s helium is only increasing.
Out of high school, his repertoire was heavily dependent on his fastball and curveball. His changeup was more of a work in progress. Since then however, he has worked very hard on his changeup and it has now become a legitimate weapon for him. Keith Law referred to the pitch as “much improved.” MLB.com even cited some Mets officials labeling it as a “plus pitch in its current state.”
The curveball is more of a traditional 12-6 curveball, which according to Keith Law, already grades as a 60 (out of 80). As for the fastball, according to FanGraphs, it has sat more in the mid-90s at the alternative site in 2020 and fall instructs. Previously, the fastball was known to top out at 95-96 and would usually be in the 92-95 range. The fact he can consistently stay at the 95-96 MPH figure is huge for him going forward.
I think it is fair to start getting excited about Allan’s potential and his future. He can easily be a Top-50 prospect in baseball by this time next year. He is probably the best starting pitching prospect the Mets have had since Noah Syndergaard. I think Allan will begin the season on a full-season roster and they will be aggressive with him.
Allan will join Baty in Brooklyn to start the season.
Ronny Mauricio, Photo by Mets
2. Ronny Mauricio, SS
B/T: S/R Age: 20 (4/4/2001)
Height: 6’3″ Weight: 215 lbs
ETA: 2022 Previous Rank: 1
Acquired: International Free Agent Signing, 2017
Stats: 504 PA, 99 K, 23 BB, .268/.307/.357, 4 HR, 37 RBI
Mauricio’s physical frame and projection are what make him so highly thought of on prospect lists. His statistics above mind seem a little underwhelming but it is important to remember he played in a pitcher friendly league at the age of 18. He was 3.5 years younger than the competition. He also has good bat speed and knows how to make contact. The thing that might hold him back is that he does not get a lot of elevation in his swing. Just about every prospect analyst believes that he needs to cut down on his ground balls in order to take the next step.
His size will not be the reason why he has to be moved off shortstop. Mauricio has good hands and his fielding and arm strength have been praised by FanGraphs and MLB.com. Of course, with Francisco Lindor manning shortstop for the next 10 years, Mauricio will certainly need to handle a different position.
Our own Mike Mayer reports that the Mets will be giving Ronny a look in the outfield. I would have liked to see him try out third base first but I trust that the Mets know more about what position he can handle. His athleticism, frame, and switch-hitting abilities are very tantalizing. He will be at the top of this list regardless of whether or not he is a shortstop.
Mauricio will join Baty and Allan in Brooklyn, giving the Cyclones a must-watch team.
Photo by Ed Delany. MMN
1. Francisco Alvarez, C
B/T: R/R Age: 20 (11/19/2001)
Height: 5’11″ Weight: 220 lbs
ETA: 2023 Previous Rank: 3
Acquired: International Free Agent Signing, 2018
Stats: 182 PA, 37 K, 21 BB, .312/.407/.510, 7 HR, 26 RBI
Alvarez’s rise on the prospect lists has been one of the fastest rises I’ve ever seen from a Mets prospect. He’s already a top-50 prospect in baseball with some even having them in their top-30 rankings. The Mets sent him to the Altenate Site in 2020 and MLB.com says that he “responded by showing better than any hitter in camp.”
Keith Law says that Alvarez does “enough of everything” to stay behind the plate defensively. He also added that, “With his contact skills and present power, he’ll be very good, but if the power develops, or he maintains his strong walk rates, the Venezuelan teenager will be a star.”
Alvarez also seems to hit the ball in the air a lot. In both places he played in 2019, he had a ground ball rate below 40%. The fact that he will not have to adjust his swing to get more elevation is already a huge thing at this age. He seems to have an advanced approach, feel for the strike zone, and swing.
Catchers that have his offensive profile will always be valued very highly. Despite less than 200 plate appearances under his belt, Alvarez is seen as one of the best prospects in baseball and his stock should only get higher. I fully expect Alvarez to begin the season in a full-season league and if Alvarez keeps handling these challenges, then expect him to be a consensus top-20 prospect by the end of 2021.
Alvarez will get his first taste of full season ball with the St. Lucie Mets to begin 2021.
