Photo by Ed Delany of Mets Minors
Starting with Matt Allan being ranked at 11, our staff has dedicated a more detailed analysis of the top prospects in the New York Mets farm system. At number 10, we have another right-handed starting pitching prospect who came to the Mets past the first round due to extending circumstances.
No. 10 Calvin Ziegler, RHP
B/T: R/R Age: 10/3/2002 (20)
Ht: 6’0 Wt: 205 lbs.
Acquired: Drafted in the 2nd round of the 2021 Draft out of TNXL Academy (Altamonte Springs, FL)
ETA: 2026 Previous Rank: 13
Stats (St. Lucie): 0-6, 4.44 ERA, 16 G, 16 GS, 46 2/3 IP, 1.307 WHIP, 6.8 BB/9, 13.5 K/9
Due to the COVID-19 Pandemic, scouts weren’t allowed to travel, hampering their ability to conduct in-person workouts in time for the 2020 and 2021 MLB Amateur Player Drafts. Social Media played a role in some players getting drafted (for example, Luke Little, Chicago Cubs), but many a player fell through the cracks. Calvin Ziegler, a high school right-hander out of TXNL Academy, was a casualty of such, even after moving from Canada to Florida.
The Mets eventually called his name in the second round of the 2021 draft, 46th overall. He inked a deal below slot value worth $910,000, forgoing an Auburn University commitment. Mets’ scout Jon Updike, the party primarily responsible for Mets’ draft operations in the baseball hotbed that is Florida, played a major role in Ziegler’s selection.
Since joining the Mets’ organization, Ziegler’s been a whiff-heavy machine, finishing in the 86th percentile in whiff rate among all 2022 FSL pitchers.
Calvin Ziegler’s 2022 final ERA might not be that nice, but he did finish with a 40.70 K% and 36% whiff rate.
Out of the 430 pitchers with at least 100 batters faced in Single-A in 2022, those marks place Ziegler in the 97th and 86th percentiles, respectively.
— aidan (@aidahoIic) September 16, 2022
His arsenal, while not polished at this point, employs three distinct pitches that portend early promise.
He can crank his fastball up to 97 mph, but parks it in the mid-90s. The IVB and VAA on the offering are rather impressive. It’s a rather flat pitch, making it difficult to square up against. It can show sporadic arm-side movement, tailing away from righties.
That bodes well for Ziegler’s development; other notable flat fastballs in the Mets’ history include Jacob deGrom‘s and Justin Verlander‘s. Good company to be in.
It’s chased out of the zone fairly often, which accounting for his overall profile, is both a blessing and a curse.
Calvin Ziegler's fastball has a 28% zone rate through 484 tracked pitches in St. Lucie this year.
Minimum 400 pitches, the lowest zone rate for a fastball in MLB is 46.3%.
Big reason why his fastball CSW is only 25.2% with such insane IVB.
— aidan (@aidahoIic) September 8, 2022
The lack of control worries some evaluators, but it should be noted that there’s been an organizational shift in philosophy, and thus, a paradigm in their coaching methods. As noted by Prospects Live, Teams have gotten more comfortable selecting high-whiff, low-command arms, betting that their raw stuff will eventually shine through.
That being said, Ziegler will spend the 2023 season as a 20-year-old, which gives him plenty of time to iron out his command issues.
His off-speed pitches are both promising. A slopey curveball is ranked the highest out of the duo. It’s a true 12-6, with Kyler Peterson of Perfect Game noting its optimal spin axis. His changeup is a work-in-progress, with Fangraphs‘ Eric Logenhagen writing that a successful cambio is really all that’s in between him and a comfortable middle-of-the-rotation spot.
Jacob Resnick of SNY noted that late last year, Ziegler was incorporating a splitter into his repertoire, in place of the changeup. The improvement of that offering will be the key to his success in 2023.
Ziegler’s overall 2022 statistics don’t look excellent on paper, but underneath the hood, there’s much to be excited about. In 16 starts with St.Lucie, he pitched to a 4.44 ERA/3.80 FIP with a 13.5 K/9. But as aforementioned, his raw stuff is the trait the Mets’ brass are really thrilled about.
https://twitter.com/Jacob_Resnick/status/1520183923698913280?s=20&t=1ZXD81agjMFOP7ptTwxmQA
He got off to a strong start, posting a 2.96 ERA over his first six professional outings, but an injury and the rigors of his first professional season ballooned that mark into a 6.04 ERA over the last ten starts of his campaign. Halfway through the season, the Mets placed him on the IL with biceps tendinitis.
It is a common precursor to Tommy John surgery, but the injury itself does definitively mean the surgery will ever be necessary. For his part, Ziegler was able to avoid the knife and shoved for six more starts.
Ziegler will likely begin the season repeating St.Lucie, but I wouldn’t be shocked if the Mets’ higher-ups soon deem him ready to join the Brooklyn Cyclones’ rotation.
Due to his powerful fastball-curveball combination, the Mets could fast-track his development as a reliever, but due to the glut of right-handed starting pitching prospects dotting the lower levels of their system, it’s more prudent to keep his path as a starter.
Other prospect rankings:
30-26
25-21
20-16
15-12
10. Matt Allan
