; ;

MMN Top 50 Prospects: No. 2, Powerful Pete Alonso

By John Sheridan

February 24, 2019 No comments

Pete Alonso

Position: 1B     Bats/Throws: R/R     Age: December 7, 1994 (24)
Acquired: 2016 Second Round Draft Pick from the University of Florida
Previous Ranking: 2
Stats (Binghamton/Las Vegas): .285/.395/.579, 31 2B, 3B, 36 HR, 119 RBI, 158 wRC+, .421 wOBA

Let’s start with the obvious. Pete Alonso is a slugger. Both Baseball America and Fangraphs rate him as having 70 power on the 20/80 scouting scale, which means scouts believe he has 30+ home run power. Alonso has broken StatCast records for exit velocity. However you choose to quantify it, Alonso is a big time slugger. Really, there are many words written on Alonso’s prodigious power, but after all, seeing is believing:

The highlights from Alonso were many over the course of the 2018 season. That’s what happens when you become the first ever Mets prospect to lead the entire minor leagues in home runs. For that matter, he was the first player in the Mets organization to hit 36 homers since Carlos Delgado hit 38 homers in 2008.

Seeing Alonso with his prodigious power, you can understand Mets fans dreaming of a future with him at first base. It would seem with Alonso’s power and putting up home run totals rarely seen in Mets history, anything is possible. That would include Alonso hitting Nate Pearson‘s 103 MPH fastball for a home run to dead center:

This has led many to believe Alonso is ready to be the Mets Opening Day first baseman. That he will be ready to put up similar numbers for the Mets than he did last year. That is much easier said that done.

While everyone believes in Alonso’s power, there still remains questions about his bat. Outlets like Baseball America question his ability to hit better pitching. While we know he can hit not just the fastball but good fastballs, Alonso has yet to show the same prodigious power against pitchers with good breaking balls.

Even with Alonso making his swing more compact since being drafted, there remain holes in his swing. As noted by the Pitcher List, Alonso can get busted up-and-in with the fastball, and he flails at pitches low and away. This was a fact exploited this year when he reached Triple-A.

In 301 Triple-A plate appearances, Alonso struck out 25.9 percent of the time. In the Arizona Fall League, Alonso would strike out 25 percent of the time. That is a big jump from the 17.8 percent strike out rate he had in Double-A.

Now, it should be noted even with the increased strikeout rate, Alonso’s power did not disappear. Far from it. However, part of the reason for that was how Alonso adjusted.

One of the most impressive aspects of Alonso’s power profile has been his ability to hit for power to all fields. He does have the ability to take a pitch on the outer half and hit it out to right field. However, in Triple-A when he saw more breaking balls early in the count and with pitchers who were able better able to try to get him out without challenging him with a fastball, Alonso looked more for pitches to pull. In fact, his pull rate jumped from 43.6 percent in Double-A to 50.3 percent in Triple-A.

Looking at the 2019 season, there should be a real concern about Alonso’s ability to hit Major League pitching. When you look at the division, there are pitchers like Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Patrick Corbin, Aaron Nola, and Jake Arrieta who could both exploit Alonso and force him into further bad habits in an attempt to succeed as a slugger at the Major League level.

This should not be interpreted to mean Alonso will never hit at the Major League level. Alonso has a good eye at the plate, and he is able to identify his pitch and drive it. With his eye and power, it’s quite possible Alonso could play a full season in the majors next year and hit close to 30 homers. Maybe more.

Still, we have seen Alonso fall and revert to bad habits with better pitchers on the mound. He becomes more aggressive and pull happy. With the level of pitching in the National League East, a book already being out on Alonso, and team’s shifting, it may behoove Alonso to start the year in Triple-A to continue working on his game.

Peter Alonso, Photo By Ernest Dove

That leads to the biggest strength Alonso has. While many believe that to be his power, it is really his work ethic.

While not as publicized as Dominic Smith, Alonso had weight issues when he was drafted. In each of the past two seasons, Alonso has reported to camp leaner and more athletic. One of the ways this has had an impact is on his defense.

Now, when it comes to Alonso it has been oft cited how poor he is defensively. It is not too much of a hyperbole to suggest “Yakety Sak” should have been playing when he attempted to field his position when he was first drafted. However, he has been vastly improved, and he is very near being playable at the position. In fact, with continued work with Tim Teufel and a good Spring Training, he could very well be ready.

With respect to his defense, this is not a Michael Conforto type of situation. Alonso really does have defensive deficiencies. His curiously being named Las Vegas’ July Defensive Player of the Month on a team with good defenders like Luis Guillorme and Matt den Dekker doesn’t change that. Neither does his making the occasional highlight play.

Even with his struggles at the position, Alonso will catch all the balls thrown to him, and he is adept at scooping low throws from his infielders. However, with his limited mobility and slow foot speed, you cannot ask Alonso to be much more than that. This is a large reason why many still believe he will be nothing more than a DH.

If Alonso hits, you can live with his defense even if you don’t trust him on bunt plays or going to his right to get a ball in the hole. With his work ethic and dedication, it’s very possible he improves, but with his skill set, it’s far from certain he will be much better than he is now.

Overall, when you assess Alonso, the one thing you need to keep in consideration is his work ethic. He has made his swing shorter and more compact without sacrificing power. He has developed more plate discipline. His defense is immeasurably better, and he has spent each offseason getting into better shape.

When you have the work ethic and drive Alonso has, you should not bet against him getting everything he can out of his natural talent. With each passing day, the question is not whether he will be a Major League player, but how good of a Major League player he will be. Right now, that is the question before the Mets.

Ultimately, what the Mets decide could have a long lasting impact on Alonso and his future as a player.

Editor’s Note: Jarred Kelenic, Justin Dunn, Luis Santana, Ross Adolph, Bobby Wahl, Adam Hill, Gerson Bautista, and Felix Valerio were all in our original Top 50 before they were traded.

Previous Rankings

50-46 Led by Michael Paez
45-41 Led by Ranfy Adon
40-36 Led by Anthony Dirocie
35-31 Led by Ryley Gilliam
30-26 Led by Chris Viall
25 Carlos Cortes
24 Ali Sanchez
23 Eric Hanhold
22 Luis Carpio
21 Freddy Valdez
20 Walker Lockett
19 Junior Santos
18 Gavin Cecchini
17 Jordan Humphreys
16 Christian James
15 Tony Dibrell
14 Francisco Alvarez
13 Will Toffey
12 Adrian Hernandez
11 Desmond Lindsay
10 Franklyn Kilome
9 Shervyen Newton
8 Thomas Szapucki
7 Simeon Woods-Richardson
6 Anthony Kay
5 David Peterson
4 Mark Vientos
3 Ronny Mauricio

Share the post "MMN Top 50 Prospects: No. 2, Powerful Pete Alonso"

  • Facebook
  • X

Written by John Sheridan

Back to Top ↑