Nathan Lavender, Ed Delany of MetsMinors
After a strong start to his season with Double-A Binghamton, left-handed reliever Nathan Lavender has been promoted to Triple-A Syracuse. He’s now one step closer to the majors.
Excellence is nothing new for the 23-year-old southpaw. He’s routinely dominated at every level since the Mets picked him up in the 14th round of the 2021 draft. This season, he’s posted a flat 2.00 ERA, a 53% ground-ball rate, and an incredible 15.5 K/9 over 18 innings.
Baseball America recently chatted with Mets’ farm director Kevin Howard about Lavender:
“He’s a guy who has a lot of deception, so his stuff plays up,” Mets farm director Kevin Howard said. “He is just not scared. He attacks hitters and has that kind of polish that we just felt moving him up quick, because I don’t think he will be intimidated.”
Despite middling velocity on his fastball, his ability to induce whiffs is virtually unheard of. Last week, he struck out universal top prospect Elly De La Cruz on three consecutive fastballs, none of which topped 90 mph. In his 45-pitch outing, no pitch topped 91.5 mph.
Mets reliever prospect Nathan Lavender striking out Top 5 prospect Elly De La Cruz on 3 pitches.
The 23-year-old has struck out 40.3% of the batters he's faced this year between AA/AAA. Has 2.00 ERA and opponents hitting just .141 against him.
His fastball averages 90-91 mph. pic.twitter.com/boEsHDBXTB
— Mike Mayer (@mikemayer22) May 26, 2023
His fastball is his main bread-and-butter, throwing it nearly 61% of the time this season. Despite a middling movement profile, the pitch has still generated a 45.5% Whiff rate this season.
Part of the explanation is Lavender’s FB axis’ averages 153 degrees. That’s the equivalent of 10 o’clock on Baseball Savant‘s Spin Axis tool. Assuming that public data uses a tool similar to Savant’s spin-based axis, Cincinnati Reds’ star Nick Lodolo is the only southpaw in the majors this season who releases his fastball on an equivalent axis. Lavender’s vertical release point is similar to Lodolo’s, with just four inches of difference between the two.
Nick Lodolo, Painted 95mph Fastball…for a ball.🤖🤖🤖 pic.twitter.com/P9HlKxpyXr
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 13, 2023
It should be noted Lodolo’s profile differs from Lavender’s in some major ways, most notably in the velocity department, but it’s always exciting for a 13th-round pick to have applicable comparables with a successful MLB starter.
MLB Pipeline noted that Lavender’s extension sits over seven feet, which helps the pitch play up. According to a study by former Fangraphs‘ writer Devan Fink, Fink noted that for every foot a pitcher releases a ball closer to home plate, they experience an additional 1.7 mph in “effective velocity.”
A changeup and slider round out his arsenal. The 79-mph changeup’s produced a 41% whiff rate and helped Lavender post a .353 OPS against opposing right-handers this season, despite averaging 79 mph. Pipeline praises the offering, saying, “The cambio has 12-13 mph separation off his 89-92 mph four-seamer, and because of that, righties were just 1-for-30 with 18 strikeouts against him through his first 11 Double-A and Triple-A appearances.”
Given the Mets have a dearth of left-handed options on their depth chart, Lavender’s performance might be enough to soon earn a Major-League promotion, should the Mets need to reinforce their bullpen.
