As baseball executives, agents, players, and job seekers are about to descend upon Washington DC, for the Winter Meetings. Where blockbuster trades and high profile free agents take center-stage. The final order of business before the meetings conclude is the Rule 5 draft. The place where proverbial fliers are given opportunities to contribute to a major league team.
J.J. Cooper at Baseball America publishes a primer list annually of the more interesting prospects available for the draft. This years list has no shortage of talent from around the league. With the Mets Phillip Evans being listed among the cream of the crop.
Evans, who struggled to the tune of a career .236/.304/.310 slash line for a few seasons prior to his breakout 2016 in Binghamton. The 23-year old Eastern League batting champ hit .335/.374/.485 in 96 games after his impromptu promotion (to replace an injured Rule V eligible Jeff McNeil).
Utility infielders have a history of being taken in the Rule 5 draft, as Mets fans fondly remember Brad Emaus hitting .162 in 14 games to start the 2011 season. In 2012 Jeff Kobernus and Angel Sanchez were taken (and returned). Teams were much more actively successful in selecting those utility guys in 2014 with Delino DeShields Jr, Taylor Featherston, and Odubel Herrera all selected and stuck with new organizations.
While it would have been nice to add Evans to the 40-man and not risk losing him, he is buried on the depth chart. As a utility infielder who can stand at the SS position, (something the Mets seem to develop in their sleep) he stands behind Jose Reyes, Wilmer Flores, TJ Rivera, Gavin Cecchini, Matt Reynolds, and Amed Rosario.
Scanning the list of Mets positional players of interest who could be selected in the Rule 5 draft (thanks to tpgMets for doing the work) are the similarly tooled utility guys L.J. Mazzilli, and Jeff McNeil. If it were not for 13 man bullpens that dominate the modern game Champ Stuart would most certainly be taken. On a side note I am curious to see if the roster expansion comes to fruition, how the 26th man is managed from a personnel standpoint. A higher premium on specialized talent may be emphasized as a luxury that teams could not afford previously.
The Mets have had starting pitchers selected in back-to-back years, (Logan Verrett and Matt Bowman respectively) though they weren’t the typical fireballers selected. Their stuff did play up in the bullpen. Hard throwing starters generally get a lot of attention as they can be hidden in that 13th bullpen man role without over exposure, which led to Marcus Molina and Chris Flexen being protected this year.
On occasion, a strike throwing crafty pitcher gets selected like Sean Gilmartin, though generally they are not prioritized. Available Mets pitchers falling into that category, Ricky Knapp and Nabil Crismatt could be classified as such.
Then there is the straight relief pitchers who could be selected. While velocity is something that piques front offices interest, something should be said for success. For that Paul Sewald, who has had success at every level he has been at, including Vegas, is a possible selection. Kevin McGowan is another who has pitched well, though only topped out at AA thus far. Further down the system, Tyler Bashlor has the stuff that teams drool over and has finally proven healthy after a great 2016 in A ball.
In addition to the players listed above, one I think that could be drafted is one everyone could have signed already this off-season. Alberto Baldonado who just signed a minor league free agent contract to return to the organization. As a southpaw in the bullpen his role is always in demand, and averaging over a strikeout per inning is a metric that checks a box. A player having just signed to a minor league deal being selected is not unheard of as former Met prospect Deolis Guerra was just selected last season by the Angels after having re-upped with the Pirates on a minor league deal.
We have incredible depth at middle infield but how do you pick Ty Kelly over Evans or some of the Mets borderline relief pitching over Seward. Sandy is great in accessing risk, but he was wrong about Bowman and Verrett and we lost them both. (although we got Verrett back eventually)
An organization can only lose one player per draft correct?
No. Unprotected players are subject to selection until the conclusion of the draft.
If the team was rebuilding still I would agree. But Kelly does offer some versatility and has had moderate success to his role. Additionally waiving him to sign a free agent is a lot easier to swallow than releasing Evans without the restrictions that would apply to a drafted.
Also I would put Goeddell, Montero, and Reynolds at 38-40 in any particular order
” While velocity is something that peaks front offices interest…” ==> use “piques” instead of “peaks”.
I don’t think anyone takes Evans. Has a chance to be a decent utility player, but his recent season was extremely BABIP drive, similar to Reynolds’s 2014. I think, and hope, teams will realize that. I think Sewald’s gone, which is too bad, as I thought he was more important to protect than Molina or Flexen. The other guy I think might get taken is Ricky Knapp. Could probably be a decent enough long reliever/swingman for a team next year, although he reminds me too much of Verrett to be too concerned about losing him.
Thanks for the correction. Duly noted
Kelly will go at the first free agent signee. You put Evans there, and then you have to wait for him to clear waivers. Good luck with that.
At least this way, he has to stick for all year and I doubt he does. Seward and Knapp however, will, and Baldinado may.
Baldonado resigned as a minor league free agent. I am unsure if Rule 5 applies to those types of free agents once they sign.I had said that Knapp was a potential loss earlier this month, but was told that most pitchers who are below AA don’t get picked- so then why then did the Mets protect Flexon and Molina?
I agree we could lose Evans. Seward and Knapp. Stuart also if a team like the Phillies wants to take him and let him pinch run for a year, but after all the K’s in the AFL, unlikely he gets picked.
While I would rather keep them all, the only players I am worried about are Seward and Stuart, and Seward is either ready or a bust-not really a prospect any more and Stuart will probably have trouble hitting enough to stick all year, only a team playing for the future could afford him a spot.
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While BA listed Philip Evans in the “cream of the crop” area, Fangraphs didn’t list him at all. In fact, they even listed Wilfredo Tovar. Based on his light hitting history, I can’t see Evans go to a MLB roster. If he is taken as a curiosity item, he will probably come back.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/katohs-guide-to-the-2016-rule-5-draft/