David Griffin, Photo by Rick Nelson
David Griffin is a product of Division III Curry College and made stops in the Independent Leagues (American Association and Frontier League) before signing with the Mets. He was released by the Ottawa Titans and played for two seasons with the Gary SouthShore Railcats, and has turned himself into a Triple-A pitcher at this point in the season.
After initially being held back in extended spring training this year, he began the season on the Double-A roster and went to Syracuse to fill a spot. What happened afterward, not many people (likely including the Mets Player Development staff) saw coming. He dominated in his first two Triple-A outings and put up eight scoreless innings with just three hits allowed to go along with ten strikeouts. At this point, he surely caught the front office’s attention, and while he isn’t yet an MLB caliber pitcher, he has many similar attributes to the Twins’ Joe Ryan that he should work towards to climb the final rung of the ladder and step foot on Citi Field’s mound.
Short-Term Goal: Find His Mechanics & Fastball Velocity
Along with his biographical background, David Griffin has several physical attributes on the mound that make him unique. He has hyper-mobile hips, allowing for a long stride, good torso extension, and a low release height. This low release height, paired with a four-seam fastball, makes a below-average fastball –in regards to velocity– much more interesting. Fastballs coming from a lower height than normal with good vertical break end up in a higher location than the hitter anticipates, resulting in a high swing-and-miss rate on the pitch (think rise-ball in softball). Pitchers who do this well include Paul Sewald and Joe Ryan, submarine pitchers such as Tyler Rogers, and Mets’ own minor leaguer Josh Hejka on their rising sliders.
Griffin has a release height of 5’4″ this year which is lower than 82% of MLB arms, and the crop below him includes all of the low slot arms. However, his extension has shortened from 2022 to 2023 by several inches on average (6.8 to 6.7 feet), and his arm slot has lowered by two degrees. The main cause for concern, however, is that he has lost 23% of effective spin on his fastball, resulting in a 3″ less vertical break than in 2022, a huge detractor in his vertical approach angle (VAA). He went from the 87th to 52nd percentile in VAA and lowered his average location height on the pitch, yet another variable that plays into the rate of swings and misses on the pitch.
His mechanics are, by and large, the same as last year. Still, he isn’t loading his back quite as much, staying out of both rear hip and knee flexion as he moves down the mound, pushing him slightly towards the third base side (his horizontal approach angle on his fastball has also changed from -2.1 to -1.0 degrees) and likely lowering his arm angle in the process. Another factor in lower spin efficiency is increased usage of pitches that require forearm and wrist supination (breaking balls), and his new slider, unfortunately, may be impacting his fastball. He should revisit certain drills that got him to hit 95 mph this offseason (likely a rocker variation would help load the hip) and work on his spin efficiency daily as a form of maintenance pitch design, using a baseball with a line drawn on it or a Clean Fuego to get visual feedback.
Long-Term Goals: Add Curveball & Lower BB%
Adding a fourth pitch is something many starters do in the big leagues that continues to be a relevant note for MiLB starters. It’s a no-brainer to have a slow curveball to steal strikes and throw at a low percentage clip. It is one of the few variables in a player’s control: develop a pitch that can be landed in the zone that hitters won’t swing at because they will never be able to sit on it. Countless MLB arms do it, such as Clayton Kershaw, Adam Wainwright, and even Joe Ryan, to name a few. The lower intensity and predictable movement that a get-me-over curveball has can also increase a pitcher’s strike percentage to lower walk rates.
Griffin needs to excel in many areas, with an average fastball velocity of just 91.2 mph and command is an obvious place to start. He flashed a walk rate of 4% in Brooklyn in 2022 and then ballooned to a 10.7 BB% in Binghamton to finish the season. He had elite command in a five-inning masterpiece in Syracuse on April 28 and then proceeded to walk five in his next outing. Joe Ryan has four pitches, including a slightly worse slider than Griffin’s, a better change-up offering (splitter), and a fastball that is an older brother version of the Mets farmhand’s. What Ryan possesses that really sets him apart at this point is an exceptional 6.6 BB% in his MLB career (3.7% in 2023) while Griffin has a walk rate just a hair below 10% for his MiLB career.
Something To Watch For: Slider Shape Regression
It took Griffin years and many iterations of sliders to find the shape he’s used this season. The results have been promising thus far, as he has a 70th percentile miss rate against elite competition. Stuff+ grades on his pitch are even more favorable (it grades over 14% above MLB average), and they are supported by a 98th percentile miss rate in the strike zone, indicating that even the most hittable of his pitches are too tricky for hitters. While his average vertical break (8.4″) and horizontal break (-10.5″) on the pitch are at an MLB level for sliders, he has thrown pitches with over 15″ of VB and less than -2″ of HB, showing a wide variance on the pitch.
His current grip is similar to the Yankees’ ‘Whirly’ sweeper grip with a spaced out two-seam finger orientation, much different from last year’s grip. As such, he should be able to keep the pitch at its current shape, but he should be wary of a shape regression to the 3″ VB, -3″ HB slider from last year. In addition, an increased focus on differentiating his hand positions on his fastball and slider could lead to some loss of movement, but checking in on the pitch in his touch and feel pregame bullpens with Trackman data on hand should be a major help.
Summary
While his peak fastball velocity has only declined by 0.6 mph (94.1 to 93.5), Griffin needs to improve his fastball via location strategy, velocity, or vertical movement (spin efficiency) to return it to above-average form. His new and improved slider is a beacon of hope for his career and MLB aspirations, and he has now tasted success at the Minor Leagues’ highest level. Adding a fourth pitch to steal strikes, honing in on fastball shape and velocity, and continuing to develop a feel for his slider are keys to potential MLB success. His MLB comparison, Joe Ryan, is his incredibly optimistic ceiling, but if he finds elite command that he’s flashed in the past and with the pitch shape improvements already discussed, there is a path for him that leads in Ryan’s direction. That, in itself, is reason enough for the Mets to keep him around and continue to give the former Indy-baller opportunities.
