Matt Harvey having season ending surgery has put the Mets rotation in flux, and it could potentially lead towards the team deciding which one of their prospects should be added to the rotation. With Robert Gsellman only having made one AAA start and his being activated yesterday off the DL, there are only two prospects the Mets have to choose from: Gabriel Ynoa and Seth Lugo.
For many, the obvious choice is Ynoa. The 23-year old Ynoa has been regarded as one of the top prospects in the Mets minor league system. He has progressed rather quickly through the Mets minor league system which is all the more remarkable when you consider how conservative this front office tends to be with their prospects. In this his first full season in AAA, Ynoa was named a Pacific Coast League All-Star. He is 9-3 with a 4.19 ERA and a 1.404 WHIP in his first 18 starts. These are impressive numbers when you consider Ynoa pitches to contact and that he’s pitching in a hitter’s friendly league. Given his status as a Mets top prospect and the fact that he is pitching well in AAA, it seems like he would be the obvious choice to join the Mets rotation over a pitcher like Lugo.
The 26-year old Lugo was the Mets 2011 34th round selection out of Centenary College of Louisiana. That’s a Division II NCAA school. This season he lost his spot in the AAA rotation due to how poorly he had been pitching. Overall, Lugo has made 13 starts and six relief appearances going 3-4 with a 6.55 ERA and a 1.675 WHIP. These are ugly numbers that were brought up time and again when the Mets first called him up to the majors to pitch out of the bullpen. Coming into the season we had Lugo as our #12 Mets prospect here at MMN.
However, in his first relief appearance, we quickly found out why we scout a pitcher for their repertoire instead of their stats when he struck out Anthony Rizzo with a filthy curveball:
As you can see, Lugo has a filthy curveball that can get fool even the best major league hitters. Lugo combines that pitch with a four-seam fastball in the mid 90s, a two-seamer in the high 80s, a slider and a developing changeup. This is the repertoire Lugo used to pitch two scoreless innings against a Cubs team that has scored the most runs in the National League. This is the same repertoire Lugo was developing when he went 2-2 with a 4.00 ERA and a 1.185 WHIP in five AAA starts last year. Overall, you can reasonably argue that Lugo’s fastball and curveball are two plus major league ready pitches. As we have seen with a number of Mets pitchers, time spent with Dan Warthen will only help him further develop that slider. Despite his early season struggles, he’s arguably more ready to succeed in the majors.
In fact, Lugo has had success in his limited work with the Mets this year. In the aforementioned game against the Cubs, Lugo pitched two scoreless innings allowing only two hits while striking out two. When he had to take the place of an injured Noah Syndergaard, Lugo responded with two scoreless and hitless innings against the Nationals. Lugo is clearly proving he can get big league hitters out, and that the Mets should consider him for a rotation spot.
Ynoa, on the other hand, struggled in his last start. He lasted only four innings allowing 10 hits, five earned, and one walk while striking out only two. In his last three starts, Ynoa has averaged 4.2 innings with a 9.42 ERA and a 2.163 WHIP. Ynoa has hit a bump, and he needs to remain in AAA to make the necessary adjustments.
The first shot for Matt Harvey‘s roster spot was given to Logan Verrett last night when he went 6.2 innings allowing five runs on four hits and five walks. He is now 1-4 with a 5.64 ERA and 1.648 WHIP in six starts spanning 30.1 innings.
Right now, Lugo is better equipped to get out major league hitters. He’s a better bet to succeed in the Mets rotation. Lugo should get his shot.
Lugo was not even in the AAA rotation. He was moved to the pen. IMO, he is not going to be given a shot at starting until all other candidates have been exhausted. I see a vet acquired before Lugo is given a start.
Is Gsellman an option, even coming of the DL?
I read somewhere that Lugo has the kind of repertoire that is affected badly by the aridity and altitude in the PCL, and that he´s more likely to succeed under normal conditions. Can anyone with more pitching knowledge than me chime in on this? Michael? Teddy?
Yeah i agree with you but I think it’s the wrong move. The Mets need to realize that every pitching prospect won’t be able to pitch effectively in Vegas. However, that doesn’t mean they aren’t good enough for the MLB. They made that mistake by exposing Bowman to the Rule 5 draft after a poor showing in Vegas last year. I think he would’ve been a Gee type, crafty Pitcher with less than stellar stuff, effective as a back end starter or MRP. I think Lugo has a shot to be an adequate #5 starter this year. Hope he gets an opportunity. Remember, Degrom was pegged for the pen til injuries opened the door for him.
NO! He’s been getting hammered in Vegas so far. I like him but he clearly needs more development.
Maybe
Not so much worried about results at AAA. More worried that he moved out of AAA rotation while Montero, Below and Pimentel stayed in.
good point lol
hmm. Have you not seen Ynoa over his last few starts?
I’d stick with Verrett. Just my opinion but Verrett needs to pitch his game and not the pitching couch’s game. Lugo is a once thru the order guy. Something is not right with Gsellman. I’d wait on Ynoa, seen all his home starts and lately they have not been good. Montero needs a new home. That leaves Gilmartin or someone at AA not on my radar.
Verrett needs to pitch his game and stop the catcher making him nibble the edges.
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good point lol. but like I said in the comment above this one, I understand pitchers, especially those that don’t have off the charts stuff, getting hammered at Vegas. Gsellman just got to Vegas and he’s been hurt almost half the time. He definitely needs more time in the thin air.
I like Verrett and think he’s certainly a useful swingman but I think that Lugo has better overall stuff. Gsellman has been battling an injury and he will be fine once he gets back into it.
100% agree, which is why I would choose Lugo over Ynoa right now for a couple of starts. He has a better breaking ball than Ynoa.
No not right now, still needs more time in Vegas, still working on his changeup and fine tuning his slider.
He was moved because he’s on the 40 man roster and Mets wanted to see if he could be an option in the pen. This doesn’t preclude him from starting or the fact that he’s a better MLB starting option right now that Ynoa.
Why do you think Lugo is a bettter option as a MLB starter than Ynoa?
Better two pitch combo right now than Ynoa (who’s breaking ball still needs work) and Lugo also mixes in a two-seamer as well. He also pitches to less contact than Ynoa does. Lugo’s curveball gives him a legit MLB out pitch which Ynoa simply doesn’t have at the moment.
It sounds like you have seen Ynoa pitch. That’s why I asked. Nice job. Too many people make statements about players they have never actually seen play.
Yes I have, in person and on MiLBtv. I wouldn’t make definite assessment of a player unless I did. I used to be a huge Ynoa supporter but his secondary stuff just hasn’t developed like I thought it would.